TX Winter Wx Threat # 9--- Another Arctic Outbreak?

[southerngale]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
310 PM CST FRI JAN 26 2007

<snippet>
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD AIR SURGES OF ARCTIC
ORIGIN ARRIVE THURSDAY WITH OVERRUNNING COLD RAIN. PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW NEXT WEEKEND AS OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP
FROM THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES SOUTH TO ALONG THE
NORTHWEST U.S. COAST. A WINTRY MIX COULD ACCOMPANY THE COLDER AIR
NEXT WEEKEND DEPENDING UPON WHETHER OR NOT THE SOUTHERN STREAM
REMAINS ACTIVE. OUT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...MODELS CANNOT RESOLVE THIS
SUFFICIENTLY SO OUTLOOK REMAINS MURKY. STAY TUNED.

[KatDaddy]

YeeHaw.....HOU-GAL AFD


POST-FRONTAL REGIME (MID WEEK ON)
ASTHE SW UPPER FLOW PERSISTS. HOWEVER OF SOME CONCERN ARE LONG
RANGE PROGS OF AN EXTREMELY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING O-
VER THE WRN U.S. (SOMEWHERE IN THE ORDER OF 65 DEGREES). BRR...
SHOULD THE GUIDANCE VERIFY...WE COULD SEE CLOUDY/VERY COLD CON-
DITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SOME
LOWISH POPS. A BEAR WATCH MAY BE IN ORDER...(A POLAR BEAR WATCH
PERHAPS?) 41

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

YeeHaw.....HOU-GAL AFD


POST-FRONTAL REGIME (MID WEEK ON)
ASTHE SW UPPER FLOW PERSISTS. HOWEVER OF SOME CONCERN ARE LONG
RANGE PROGS OF AN EXTREMELY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING O-
VER THE WRN U.S. (SOMEWHERE IN THE ORDER OF 65 DEGREES). BRR...
SHOULD THE GUIDANCE VERIFY...WE COULD SEE CLOUDY/VERY COLD CON-
DITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SOME
LOWISH POPS. A BEAR WATCH MAY BE IN ORDER...(A POLAR BEAR WATCH
PERHAPS?) 41

Polar Bear Watch !!!!!!

EWG is going to be going ga ga over that!

[double D]

I guess the San Angelo folks have been taking notes from the NWS over at Brownsville:

PERIODIC IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF
RAINFALL GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THEIR TIMING AND STRENGTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED.

That's kind of funny, becuase they usally jump on these arctic fronts way before San Antonio/Austin NWS does.

[Extremeweatherguy]

YeeHaw.....HOU-GAL AFD


POST-FRONTAL REGIME (MID WEEK ON)
ASTHE SW UPPER FLOW PERSISTS. HOWEVER OF SOME CONCERN ARE LONG
RANGE PROGS OF AN EXTREMELY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING O-
VER THE WRN U.S. (SOMEWHERE IN THE ORDER OF 65 DEGREES). BRR...
SHOULD THE GUIDANCE VERIFY...WE COULD SEE CLOUDY/VERY COLD CON-
DITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SOME
LOWISH POPS. A BEAR WATCH MAY BE IN ORDER...(A POLAR BEAR WATCH
PERHAPS?) 41

Polar Bear Watch !!!!!!

EWG is going to be going ga ga over that!

lol.

I was actually just about to post that discussion myself. Very interesting. Looks like the Houston NWS is finally on board with the possibilities.

[TrekkerCC]

Wow, apparently the day shift at the NWS Ft. Worth office is becoming bullish on the arctic front. However, the night shift may take the precipitation mentions away again.

Afternoon discussion:

.LONG TERM...
GET READY FOLKS...BECAUSE OLD MAN WINTER IS RETURNING WITH A FURY
WITH A LARGE SCALE/LONG WAVE PATTERN CHANGE MORE INDICATIVE OF COLD
WINTERS DEVELOPING. ACTIVE SUB-TROPICAL JET BRANCH WILL BE SHUNTED
WELL SOUTH INTO OLD MEXICO. A REX/OMEGA TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN IN THE
MID LVLS WILL BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC OCEAN/WRN CONUS AND
CANADA...WITH BROAD POLAR VORTEX INTENSIFYING OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF
THE CONUS. WE`LL SEE SEVERAL ADDED SHOTS OF CA/CP TYPE AIRMASSES
ORIGINATING FROM NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE...ONE NEXT TUES...ANOTHER
NEXT WED NIGHT AND THURS...THEN AGAIN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SO
IT`S BACK TO THE CHILLY WEATHER.

WE`LL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE AFFECTS OF THE POLAR BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM ALL OF NEXT WEEK...SO ANY SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE W/SW WILL
BE ABSORBED AND RAPIDLY SHEARED AS THEY MOVE ACROSS TEXAS AND OVER
ANY VERY COLD AIR SETTLED BELOW. MOISTURE DEPTH/AVAILABILITY WILL BE
IN QUESTION THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THUS LOW POPS WERE CARRIED
OFF/ON THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY PER MODELS. AFTER DAY
3 (MON)...LEANED WITH THE ALWAYS MORE CONSISTENT ECWMF/CANADIAN
MODELS OVER THE FLIP-FLOPPING GFS...ESPECIALLY WITH HANDLING OF
CA/CP AIRMASSES. EXPECT FINE TUNING IN FUTURE FCSTS... BUT NOTHING
LOOKS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME WITH ANY WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED AS WE MONITOR THE COLD WEATHER.

They are not too concerned about significant precipitation at this stage. It could be interesting if we had the "perfect" storm setup for a good snowstorm in North/Central/South Texas. The Hazardous Weather Outlook also mentions wintry precipitation.

COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING ALONG THE RED RIVER
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...AND SPREADING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REST
OF NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

(edited: to correct grammar)

[Extremeweatherguy]

The CPC has also shifted their area of below normal temps. for day 6-10 further westward...

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... mp.new.gif

Yesterday we had about a 40% chance of below normal temps. from them, today we have an over 50% chance.

[Extremeweatherguy]

check out the major bust potential this local news station in Houston has for late next week...

http://images.ibsys.com/hou/images/weat ... 40x480.jpg

[HouTXmetro]

check out the major bust potential this local news station in Houston has for late next week...

http://images.ibsys.com/hou/images/weat ... 40x480.jpg

lows in the 30's all next week is too cold for me!!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

check out the major bust potential this local news station in Houston has for late next week...

http://images.ibsys.com/hou/images/weat ... 40x480.jpg

lows in the 30's all next week is too cold for me!!!!

true. It is certainly a chilly forecast by normal standards. But that high of 56 next Friday may be in jeopardy if this front comes through with the power that is being predicted. Our normal "chilly" weather will probably look warm if we are stuck in the 20s and 30s for highs next weekend.

Seems like Channel 2 is basically just sticking with the NWS forecast right now. At this point in the game, that is probably a smart move. However, I do like to see a forecaster that makes bold calls sometimes and doesn't just stick to other people's forecasts. Should be interesting to see how it all unfolds. Right now though, that Thurs/Fri forecast for next week has some major bust potential.

[abcd4]

I am new to all this. My second time to post. When is the cold supposed to hit Houston? I heard we may be in the 20's. Any chance of frozen precip?
I would love to see some snow in Texas again....

[Extremeweatherguy]

Brrr...

The 500mb pattern on the 18z GFS continues to look very frigid:

Wed. afternoon = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120l.gif

Thurs. afternoon = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif

Fri. afternoon = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif

Sat. afternoon = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_192l.gif

Sun. afternoon = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_216l.gif

Mon. afternoon = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_240l.gif

Get ready for one long, brutal stretch of cold weather...

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am new to all this. My second time to post. When is the cold supposed to hit Houston? I heard we may be in the 20's. Any chance of frozen precip?
I would love to see some snow in Texas again....

From what I am seeing on the models and hearing from the mets, it looks like the cold should arrive sometime late next week (somewhere in the time period between late Wednesday and early Friday). Then, after it arrives, it should be followed by additional, stronger shots of cold next weekend.

The worst case for Houston right now looks to be lows in the teens and highs in the 20s for a day or two with possibly some snow by next weekend. However, we are still a bit too far out to know if that scenario is going to happen for sure just yet. At the moment though, I would say that it is a safe bet that we at least see some of the coldest air of the winter thus far by next weekend.

BTW: Coldest low temperature IAH has had this winter is 30-degrees (so far).

[abcd4]

Extremeweatherguy,
How can you tell its gonna be cold Wed. - Mon.
I looked at noaa, but I dont understand......
Can you break it down for me

[aggiecutter]

The mets in shreveport have done a 180 from a couple days ago for next week. Originally, they were forecasting highs in the 50's and 60's for all of next week. Now, they have changed their tune. They have a low of 23 for Texarkana on Sunday night,a high of only 39 for next Friday, and they mention the possibility of a wintry mix for Tuesday night into Wednesday night. I'm going to get my midweek surprise snow, yet. Although, it wont be a surprise snow to me as the samething happened in 83 and 89 before the Arctic hound came calling. They will wait another 24 hours before deciding to put it in their official forecast. The former came from their afternoon AFD. They made no mention of next weekend, though.

Texarkana 7 day forcast:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... 9&site=shv

[Extremeweatherguy]

Extremeweatherguy,
How can you tell its gonna be cold Wed. - Mon.
I looked at noaa, but I dont understand......
Can you break it down for me

It probably will not yet be cold on Wednesday**, but by late next week it should be.

As you can see on the 500mb charts ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif ), the flow should be coming directly from the north pole, over Canada and into the plains. This would mean that any arctic airmass would likely be directed due south into our area.

For more information on how to read the models and weather maps, you can visit one of the sites below...

http://weather.unisys.com/model/details.html

http://weather.cod.edu/help/spmhelp.html#vorthelp

**sidenote: Though it will not be bone-chilling cold next Wednesday, it will still be "chilly". Highs in the 50s are currently forecast from Sunday of this weekend through Wednesday of next week. However, it will probably be much colder than that by next weekend.**

We will know more by next week..

[aggiecutter]

The GFS is seeing the pattern, but it just doesn't know when to do it.

[Burn1]

Looks like Houston and Corpus may be in for a snow event next weekend.....Highs in Houston may not get out of the 20's, while Corpus may be stuck in the 30's.... May see teens all the way to the Mexican border...This is going to last for a solid week also!!

[southerngale]

Looks like Houston and Corpus may be in for a snow event next weekend.....Highs in Houston may not get out of the 20's, while Corpus may be stuck in the 30's.... May see teens all the way to the Mexican border...This is going to last for a solid week also!!

Who are you and what have you done with Burn1?

[Wren]

Tnx, Wxman for the explanation.