Southern States - LA-MS-AL-GA-TN Winter Storm Potential

[Lowpressure]

Models are having trouble at this point. They are on to something. It appears the cold air will be in place, it is a matter of a sw ejecting or not and does it phase when it does. The set up is there for a major southern storm, it is a matter of southern energy ejecting or not. It may be a case of short notice winter storm if the models can not pin this down and suddenly a sw ejects towards the Gulf coastal states. This has potential and plenty of pro mets are watching this.

[icicle]

wow, you know its some wild weather when we have a better chance of getting a snow storm than the northeast has.

from Birmingham AL....
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE POLAR VORTEX EXPANDS WESTWARD...THE
PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT THE ARRIVAL OF A FEW ARCTIC/MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASSES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS COLD AIR CLOSELY HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY...
ESPECIALLY WITH BOUNDARY LURKING IN THE GULF AND JET DYNAMICS
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.

[GeneratorPower]

Lowpressure, I'm not so sure it would be any shorter notice than anything else. The way forecasts work in the south with Winter WX, all winter storms are short-notice because the NWS offices want to be conservative.

To be sure, it will be privately watched but publicly ignored until it's on top of us.

[Lowpressure]

Notice the absense of most of the pro mets today. Something is brewing, but no model or no one can pin it down. They are not hiding, just compiling model data to make accurate forecasts. It is tricky to say the least. Something wintry looks to take place after the 28th, it is a matter of when and how much moisture it has. The Gulf may close with the level of cold plunging down. It would almost need to be a Miller Storm with Atlantic cyclogenesis. Otherwise just cold and dry.

[GeneratorPower]

NWS Jackson, MS mentions, too.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
255 AM CST TUE JAN 23 2007

...
NEXT WEEK TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRINGING
WITH IT A CANADIAN AIRMASS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AN EVEN COLDER AIR
MASS MAY BE ON THE WAY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE POLAR
LOW SITUATES OVER THE HUDSON BAY ALLOWING VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR TO
PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH CANADA AND INTO THE NRN CONUS. GFS SHOWS
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY TRYING TO CUTOFF OVER THE DESERT SW BUT THIS
ACTUALLY REMAINS PHASED WITH THE BROAD L/W TROUGH DEVELOPING. ONCE
AGAIN B/C OF THIS FEATURE THE MDLS ARE SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF
THE FCST BECOMING INTERESTING LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH VERY COLD AIR
TRYING TO PUSH DOWN HERE...THE COLD AIR WOULD BE IN PLACE WHILE THIS
ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TRIES TO ROUND THE TROUGH AND MOVE
TWRDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. NOT THAT THIS IS UNUSUAL SINCE THE GFS
CONSISTENTLY TRIES TO DEVELOP WINTER PRECIP OVER OUR AREA AT 10 DAYS
OUT BUT THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN AND THE WAY EVERYTHING IS TRYING
TO SET UP IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW THIS EVOLVES NEXT
WEEK. ALSO THE ECMWF IS QUITE SIMILAR ESPECIALLY THE 12Z BUT THE NEW
00Z HOLDS THE UPPER LOW/ENERGY BACK IN THE SW. I HAVE FOR THE MOST
PART STUCK WITH THE MEX GUI FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ONLY
DEVIATIONS WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY THE RAW MDLS(GFS/ECMWF/DGEX)WAS TO
REMOVE POPS FROM THE MON FCST. MEX ONLY HAD SLIGHT CHANCE SO I
LOWERED EVERYONE TO 10 PERCENT SINCE MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN. /CAB/

[icicle]

well, I dont want to get my hopes up too much, but it seems like it might be our best 'POTENTIAL' shot at a 'BIG' snowstorm here in a long while. I really hope it pans out for all of us.

[HarlequinBoy]

So far Memphis hasn't mentioned anything yet, but they usually stay pretty conservative in their long range discussions.

[icicle]

Interesting read here on the historic southeast snow storm of 1963. huntsville Al 17 '', meridian Ms 15'', mobile Al 2 ''

http://www.answers.com/topic/new-year-s ... -snowstorm

I thought this was neat as well..

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

[GeneratorPower]

Keep an eye on this potential system for about 8+ days out.

[icicle]

NWS, Jackson Ms.

TUE AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ONE COLD FRONT AFTER ANOTHER
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA TUE AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES TWRDS THE LOWER AND MID MS
RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE. I SAY PRECIP B/C THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT TEMPS
COULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO SEE FLURRIES OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTH. FCST SNDGS ACROSS THE NORTH DEFINITELY SHOW SNOW
PRODUCTION WITH THE CLOUDS WELL INTO THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND THE
ENTIRE SNDG REMAINING BELOW FREEZING UNTIL ABOUT 6-900 FT AGL.
LATEST MEX DOES WARM THE NORTH TO ABV 40 AND THIS WOULD PRETTY MUCH
MELT EVERYTHING ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING HEAVY PRECIP.
THAT SAID WITH CLOUDS INCREASING WE MAY NOT WARM UP AS MUCH AS GUI
IS PREDICTING AND THIS WOULD ALLOW SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH. SOMETHING TO NOTE THOUGH IS THAT THE GFS HAS SHOWED THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW OFF AND ON FOR THE TUE TIME FRAME.
DUE TO THIS SHIFTING AND THE FACT THAT EVEN THIS SOLN IS ON THE
FENCE I WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING FLURRIES OR -SN RIGHT NOW. AS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD
LW TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF NA WITH VERY COLD AIR SURGING
SOUTH THROUGH CANADA.

[Lowpressure]

Some local offices are hinting, but still too much uncertainty regarding any storm system. They are starting to say we will need to lower temps next week and stay tuned. Huntsville hinting about possible winter weather next week as well.

[baygirl_1]

I've been checking some area forecast discussions. It seems most don't want to discuss anything beyond the extended. However, Atlanta's NWS office says this:

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS62 KFFC 242236 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 PM EST WED JAN 24 2007
(snip)
..LONG TERM...
LONG TERM GFS SHOWS THAT THE EASTERN CANADA/NE U.S. POLAR VORTEX WILL DOMINATE MORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS THAN IT HAS MUCH OF THIS WINTER. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NW/ALASKA AREA. WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE...ITS FOCUS WILL GENERALLY BE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SW U.S....DEEP STX...AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF/FL AS THE NE U.S. UPPER
GENERALLY APPEARS TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FFC CWA. INDEED THE 8-14 CPC PROGS SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL PCPN INTO THE E/SE U.S....AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH A STRENGTHENED NE U.S. UPPER LOW. THE FLOW BRIEFLY TURNS ZONAL BY SAT AS THE CUTOFF LOW IN THE SW U.S. IS FINALLY PICKED UP BY YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS BRINGS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE OF PCPN TO THE AREA DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE. SFC MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH ANTECEDENT DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S EARLY SAT. AGAIN...MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS MID/HIGH-LEVEL PACIFIC BASED. LATEST RUNS OF THE MODEL APPEAR LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS FOR THE 00Z SUN - 12Z SUN PERIOD THAN EARLIER RUNS. THE ZONAL FLOW SAT AND GOOD SFC WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SAT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY MILD DAY IN
THIS PACKAGE. WITH THE BEST SFC BASED MOISTURE AND UPPER DYNAMICS COMING THROUGH THE AREA LATE SAT TO AROUND MIDNIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD WOULD BE IN THE LIQUID FORM. AS COLD ADVECTION TAKES OVER AFT 06Z...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNSH IN THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE...PARTICULARLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FLURRIES DOWN INTO THE ATL AREA AND A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE CENTRAL AREAS. MOISTURE IS SO LIMITED THAT I DO NOT FORESEE
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION...BUT GIVEN STRENGTH OF COLD ADVECTION...CANNOT RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW AT SOME OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS EARLY SUN. FOLLOWING THIS...THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER LOW WILL AGAIN AMPLIFY AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS SUN-MON...WITH LOWS MOSTLY 20S...EVEN SOME TEENS NORTH...AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED...A POTENTIAL SNOWSTORM LOOMS ON THE HORIZON. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE GFS IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS IN FUTURE RUNS. CONFIDENCE IN SOMETHING THAT FAR OUT IS VERY LOW.

And here's this from Birmingham's NWS office:

000
FXUS64 KBMX 241150
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
549 AM CST WED JAN 24 2007
AT THIS TIME...THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ADVERTISED AS DRY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE/TIMING OF LIFTING MECHANISMS AND CHARACTER OF THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR. SPRINKLES AND OR FLURRIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST AND TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT ANYWHERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION. AS MENTIONED IN THE PAST FEW DISCUSSIONS...THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SETTING UP FOR A WINTRY CHALLENGE. WITH THE COLD AIR POISED AND READY FOR A SOUTHERN JOURNEY...JET INTERACTION IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...THE END OF JANUARY AND BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY DEFINITELY REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING.

Our local NWS office here in Mobile doesn't mention anything beyond early next week. So, it sounds like it could be interesting, but nobody wants to be the first to cry "SNOW!" Watch and wait, as usual.

[icicle]

wow, atlanta is using some strong words there with "potential snowstorm'' .

[GeneratorPower]

Huntsville's AFD for this afternoon didn't post. They've been having problems with that recently. Looks like it isn't fixed. Bummer.

[ams30721]

nothing impressive about it....but i myself being in northwest ga was shocked to read atlantaa afternoon discussion....they always the last ones to talk about winter weather or real cold weather...epecially if it is in the extended range thats unheard of...haha


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
147 PM CST WED JAN 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE WX PATTERN FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. STILL
HAVE A UPPER LOW OVER NW MEXICO. TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP A LITTLE FROM
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S. DEWPOINTS ARE ARND
THE LOW/MID 30S. STILL HAVE A HIGH OVERCAST BUT NOT AS THICK AS
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SFC CDFNT NOT REAL EASY TO FIND BUT BASED
ON DEWPOINTS...CDFNT LOOKS TO BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY (SRN IN/OH/IL).

TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WILL GO A LITTLE ABOVE MOS VALUES FOR OVER
NIGHT LOWS DUE TO STLT SHOWING MORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
NAM TIME SECTIONS ARE SHOWING LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH FOR
THURSDAY...WHICH IS VERIFIED BY CURRENT STLT PICTURES. HOWEVER THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS OVER PARTS OF MO/IL AND TN...WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP LOWER THAT PROGGED. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BURN OFF BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS CWA. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLD MRNG TEMPS (LOW/MID 20S) ON FRIDAY BUT PLENTY
OF SUN.

SATURDAY...RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY A WEAK SHORT
WAVE AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS
PW ARND 0.5O INCHES ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FROM SATURDAY
AFTN THRU ARND MIDNIGHT...BASED ON GFS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE ABOVE WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DRAG A CDFNT THRU BY
EARLY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR. TEMPS IN THIS TIMEFRAME
WILL BE ARND 40 FOR HIGHS AND LOW/MID 20S FOR LOWS. NO PCPN EXPECTED.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WHAT LOOKS LIKE A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY. AS WITH MOST CLIPPER SYSTEM...NOT
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO WILL KEEP DRY FOR THE MOMENT.
LARGE SFC HIGH COVERS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WX AND
COOL TEMPS.

&&

[Jagno]

How can this cold wintry mix hit Mexico Mississippi, Alabama, Texas and still seem to always miss me here in SW Louisiana? All we ever get is the bone chilling rain.

[rsdoug1981]

From Slidell NWS morning discussion:

ANOTHER GULF LOW SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARD TUE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IS ADVERTISED TO STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. WILL WATCH FOR ANY LIGHT RAINFALL THAT MAY CREEP THIS WAY TUE OR WED IF THE SYSTEM ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AND MOVES ON A COURSE THAT TAKES IT CLOSER TO THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER EAST TX BY NEXT THU AND MOVE NE BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH. IT IS THIS COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO BE THE INITIATING FEATURE THAT HELPS BRING A COUPLE OF LARGE SUCCESSIVE CHUNKS OF COLD ARCTIC AIR QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ONLY BE POSSIBLE IF THE STRONG 160+KT JET ACTUALLY DEVELOPS LATE NEXT WEEK OVER EXTREME NW CANADA AS ADVERTISED.

...BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!


From Jackson NWS morning discussion:

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX/OK. THIS WILL BE A CANADIAN AIRMASS BRINGING WITH IT MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. BY MONDAY MORNING THE 850MB AND 925MB TEMPS VARY FROM MINUS 4 TO MINUS 8 ACROSS THE CWFA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED ALONG I-20. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE AS 1032MB HIGH CENTER SINKS FROM NE TO SE OK BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. ACCOMPANIED BY WIND TUESDAY MORNING...LOW TEMPS BETWEEN 20F AND 25F WILL SEE WIND CHILLS OF 10-15F...SOME OF THE COLDEST FOR THIS WINTER. LATEST MEX TRIES TO WARM TUESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPS TO 50F HOWEVER...STRONG CAA SHOULD KEEP NRN PORTIONS OF CWFA CLOSER TO 40F.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE ERN HALF OF NA WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE INTO AK/YUKON WHICH ALLOWS VERY COLD AIR TO KEEP SURGING SOUTH THROUGH CANADA INTO CONUS. THESE PATTERNS TYPICALLY BRING US OUR COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AND IF COLDEST AIR PUSHES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...WE COULD SEE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION LURKING NEARBY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE GROUND HOG DAY...STAY TUNED FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL.


From Brimingham NWS morning discussion:

ALTHOUGH IT IS JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP FUTURE TABS ON A POTENTIAL SYSTEM THE END OF NEXT WEEK...CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE GFS TO AFFECT US NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD THIS BE THE STORM THAT THE SNOW LOVERS HAVE BEEN CRAVING? COULD THIS BRING A NEW LEVEL OF COLD TO THE DEEP SOUTH? KEEP TUNING IN...TO GET THE ANSWER TO THESE AND OTHER PRESSING QUESTIONS.

[icicle]

whoa, if this pans out, someone down here is gonna get blasted.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204m.gif


from NWS, birmingham..

UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO GET
KICKED EASTWARD...AND HELPS FORM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. THIS IN TURN BRINGS A ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. NAM AND GFS OFFER
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT GETS UP INTO
ALABAMA WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE NAM BEING THE WETTER OF THE TWO.
COLD AIR IS ALSO TRYING TO PRESS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THE SAME
TIME...AND THIS WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A CLOSE CALL WITH WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE LOWER LEVELS JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE SURFACE PRECIP AS ALL RAIN IN OUR AREA. I AM A LITTLE NERVOUS
ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BURST OF HEAVIER PRECIP...AND RELATED
"MELTATIVE COOLING" PROCESSES...BRINGING THE SNOW LEVEL DOWN CLOSE
TO THE SURFACE. BUT WITH PREDOMINANT SURFACE TEMPS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...I DONT THINK THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH
FOR LONG ENOUGH TO DO SO.

AS THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...COLD ADVECTION
ONCE AGAIN RETURNS IN FORCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING SEVERAL REINFORCING SHOTS OF
COLD AIR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LUCKILY...MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED...AND NO PRECIP IS FORECAST. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE HAD SINCE...WELL...THE
BEGINNING OF DECEMBER.

ALTHOUGH IT IS JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP FUTURE TABS ON A POTENTIAL SYSTEM THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE GFS TO AFFECT US NEXT
THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD THIS BE THE STORM THAT THE SNOW LOVERS HAVE
BEEN CRAVING? COULD THIS BRING A NEW LEVEL OF COLD TO THE DEEP
SOUTH? KEEP TUNING IN...TO GET THE ANSWER TO THESE AND OTHER
PRESSING QUESTIONS.

[Lowpressure]

Gotta love the last paragraph.

[icicle]

lol, ya I thought that was pretty funny as well.