More Arctic Outbreaks for Texas and the South????

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Joe Bastardi is about as reliable as Portastorm. As a matter of fact, I think they are attached at the hip.

[aggiecutter]

Does this look familiar. This is this mornings run of the Ensembles for next Tuesday. It looks like a repeat of what we just had. Cold air at the surface with SW flow a loft.

Morning Ensembles(Tuesday):
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... 0_usbg.gif

[Portastorm]

Joe Bastardi is about as reliable as Portastorm. As a matter of fact, I think they are attached at the hip.

Don't encourage him CC. You only make it worse!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think JB could be onto something here. He has been doing well this winter with the overall patterns.

However, highs in the teens in Dallas would likely mean 20s for highs in Houston. That is not something I am looking forward to if it were to happen.

[Kelarie]

I think JB could be onto something here. He has been doing well this winter with the overall patterns.

So has he changed his mind about upcoming events? Do we yet know what is going to happen next week?

[Burn1]

S. Florida to remain well into the 80's with no end in site!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think JB could be onto something here. He has been doing well this winter with the overall patterns.

So has he changed his mind about upcoming events? Do we yet know what is going to happen next week?

No, he has not changed his thinking. It is the same as what portastorm posted on the last page. Basically, he thinks the week of the 27th (the 27th is next Saturday btw) could feature a major arctic outbreak across the country with a day not topping 0 in Chicago, the teens in Dallas and the single digits in NYC.

[gboudx]

Teens for highs in Dallas would be insane. We had to re-schedule my oldest kids bday party once already. Next date is the 29th. I almost feel like NASA searching for a good weather day for a launch.

[Johnny]

Actually, JB didn't say those would be highs, or lows for that matter. I guess we can assume that he meant highs (which I'm assuming) but one could also assume that he gave himself a little wiggle room perhaps? He did say that Dallas would see one DAY in the teens so I'm ASSUMING he meant highs for one day, even though he didn't say anything about it being a high temperture.

[Portastorm]

(In the words of Keith Jackson) ... "whoa nellie." Check out this AFD from Austin/San Antonio and their mention of "snow."

***************
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
353 PM CST THU JAN 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY, THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MODELS SHOWING
A PATTERN CHANGE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN BAJA. WILL GENERALLY FAVOR A MIDDLE OF THE PACK MOVEMENT
OF THIS UPPER LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND REINFORCING SURFACE
HIGH TO DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS. THIS FRONT AND HIGH
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INCLUDE SOME AIR OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN. THUS, DO NOT EXPECT AS COLD OF TEMPERATURES. ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE BAJA LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. POPS WILL SHOW AN INCREASING TREND AFTER
TONIGHT, GENERALLY NEAR GUIDANCE NUMBERS. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
ALL LIQUID, HOWEVER THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS NORTH AND WEST OF DEL RIO SHOULD TEMPERATURES GET A LITTLE
COLDER THAN FORECAST. COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS WITH SOME
TRAINING OF CELLS. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE CAUSING A BRIEF PERIOD OF NO POPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COUPLE OF SHORT-WAVES DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL
CONSENSUS NOW SHOWS THE STRONGER OF THE TWO SHORT-WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY AND THE PLAINS TUESDAY WHILE
THE WEAKER SHORT-WAVE CUTS OFF OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
THIS IS A COLDER AIRMASS. POPS INCREASE BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE FAVORS RAINS ON MONDAY, THEN
RAIN, SNOW, OR A MIX OF THE TWO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
POPS END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR AND COLD WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES
NEXT WEEK, AS SOME EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWED THE STRONGER OF THE
TWO SHORT-WAVES WOULD BE THE ONE CUTTING OFF OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND ONLY MOVING SLOWLY EAST TOWARD TEXAS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA. DUE TO LACK OF CONSISTENCY, FORECASTS MAY SEE MANY CHANGES
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[Shoshana]

Eep.

Well, they didn't say "That's My Final Answer" so I'll not hold my breath...

[icicle]

wow, if the cold holds true that will be awesome, but I would like some snow to go with it as well. The last big snow we had here, (we call any snow thats at least 5'' big here) was nearly 20 yrs ago.

[Portastorm]

I have just descended the heights of Mt. Bastardi. The Wise One in his Monday evening missive says the Euro longer-range models are showing one of the 5 coldest airmasses he has EVER seen. JB says the next 15 days in the central and eastern U.S. will feature 40-below-normal cold in places and calls it potentially severe winter extremes.

Apparently the bottom starts falling out this weekend and just gets progressively worse (or better if you love bitterly cold temps).

EDIT UPDATE: Check out this Day 7 Euro prog for today's 12z run. If this were to verify, we're talking The Day After Tomorrow weather in central and south Texas.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

[southerngale]

I have just descended the heights of Mt. Bastardi. The Wise One in his Monday evening missive says the Euro longer-range models are showing one of the 5 coldest airmasses he has EVER seen. JB says the next 15 days in the central and eastern U.S. will feature 40-below-normal cold in places and calls it potentially severe winter extremes.

Apparently the bottom starts falling out this weekend and just gets progressively worse (or better if you love bitterly cold temps).

Now that will be REALLY SOMETHING if he can still say that in a month.

I won't hold my breath though. The last one was supposed to bring bitter cold temps at first too. As it turned out, the early December freezes were much colder.

I still like hearing what he has to say, though.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have just descended the heights of Mt. Bastardi. The Wise One in his Monday evening missive says the Euro longer-range models are showing one of the 5 coldest airmasses he has EVER seen. JB says the next 15 days in the central and eastern U.S. will feature 40-below-normal cold in places and calls it potentially severe winter extremes.

Apparently the bottom starts falling out this weekend and just gets progressively worse (or better if you love bitterly cold temps).

Now that will be REALLY SOMETHING if he can still say that in a month.

I won't hold my breath though. The last one was supposed to bring bitter cold temps at first too. As it turned out, the early December freezes were much colder.

I still like hearing what he has to say, though.

the last one likely would have brought lows into the teens/lower 20s for SE Texas if the skies had cleared and much drier air had moved in, but instead we were all stuck under the clouds and the relatively warmer temperatures of 27-37 degrees for a 2-3 day period.

Also, the last one brought rare ice all the way down into areas of the south-central TX and to the I-10 corridor in SE Texas. (which is exactly what JB had predicted would happen in advance)

Should be interesting though to see if he is on the right track with this next wave of cold weather as well...

[southerngale]

I understand, but the ice was somehow magically nonexistant at my house this last time, plus the temperatures were a lot colder in early December. No ice and lows around 29° - 30° with this last one. Ice where water was (like buckets, etc.) and temps in the mid-20's with records broken a few times in early December, so as far as the cold weather goes for me, December was more signifcant.

The reason I said "magically nonexistant at my house" is because there were reports of sleet and freezing rain in the area, even south of me. Local met, greg_kfdm_tv on here, said there was ice on the cars at the KFDM station (several miles south of here) during the 10pm news and I never had any ice anywhere here all night long, even though many weather stations in the area showed I was below freezing for many hours. They have since been checked out to make sure they were calibrated properly. AND...even the airport hit freezing for about 4 hours and they're usually several degrees warmer than here. I've talked to a local met about it, trying to solve this mystery LOL and he thinks it might have something to do with Pine Island Bayou. Strange though. But regardless, things DID freeze here back in December.

Now....let's hope that cold verifies if it can bring us some snow.

[aggiecutter]

The cold Bastardi is referring to is analogous to the 83 outbreak. In Texarkana, we got down to -4 Christmas morning. Incredibly, the high that afternoon with the sun out was only 14 degrees. There would be have to be several feeder shots of cold and snow cover well into Texas for that to happen again. On top of that, during that 3 week period of cold, we had an 8 inch snow, a ice storm, a mixture of sleet and snow(a couple inches) and snow flurries in the afternoon on several days like you have in the Rockies during the winter.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I have just descended the heights of Mt. Bastardi. The Wise One in his Monday evening missive says the Euro longer-range models are showing one of the 5 coldest airmasses he has EVER seen. JB says the next 15 days in the central and eastern U.S. will feature 40-below-normal cold in places and calls it potentially severe winter extremes.

Apparently the bottom starts falling out this weekend and just gets progressively worse (or better if you love bitterly cold temps).

Now that will be REALLY SOMETHING if he can still say that in a month.

I won't hold my breath though. The last one was supposed to bring bitter cold temps at first too. As it turned out, the early December freezes were much colder.

I still like hearing what he has to say, though.

the last one likely would have brought lows into the teens/lower 20s for SE Texas if the skies had cleared and much drier air had moved in, but instead we were all stuck under the clouds and the relatively warmer temperatures of 27-37 degrees for a 2-3 day period.

Also, the last one brought rare ice all the way down into areas of the south-central TX and to the I-10 corridor in SE Texas. (which is exactly what JB had predicted would happen in advance)

Should be interesting though to see if he is on the right track with this next wave of cold weather as well...

Yep, that's what one of our on air Mets said down here last week. Be happy we are cloudy or we'd be in the low 20's easily for overnight lows for more than a couple of hours if not more. Also, unlike the quick December shot, we have stayed below normal for a week now, starting week two today. In fact we barely touched the 60 degree mark yesterday after six days of being below 50. Tuesday and the Wed we'll be in the low 40's for highs.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

The cold Bastardi is referring to is analogous to the 83 outbreak. In Texarkana, we got down to -4 Christmas morning. Incredibly, the high that afternoon with the sun out was only 14 degrees. There would be have to be several feeder shots of cold and snow cover well into Texas for that to happen again. On top of that, during that 3 week period of cold, we had an 8 inch snow, a ice storm, a mixture of sleet and snow(a couple inches) and snow flurries in the afternoon on several days like you have in the Rockies during the winter.

Wouldn't this below normal stuff we are going thru right now and the snow pack in the plains(including the Texas Panhandle and most of the state of Oklahoma) do just that? Wouldn't the cold ground temps, even without snow pack not aid in the modification of future cold shots?

[weartherkid]

how is you weather now ?