TX Winter Wx Threat # 9--- Another Arctic Outbreak?

[boca]

At least you guys get events. Here in Florida we can't get below 70 at night. (S FL)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Extremely rare to have more than one event in a season for Houston.

that is true, but it has happened before..

http://www.wxresearch.com/freezhtm.htm

I guess only time will tell if this year features a repeat.

[Portastorm]

OK, it's probably nothing ... but I am a bit concerned that temps in my area are in the mid to upper 30s right now and our local NWS office said temps holding in the mid 40s today.

With cloud cover increasing, dew points dropping (and apparent cold air advection being strong), and precip rolling in later this evening ... kinda makes me wonder if we might be dealing with a little ice in the Austin metro area.

[Lowpressure]

Porta, we had a similar scenario last night with moderate rain, temp dropped to 32.9 with dp 30, all rain. It was a close call, but no frozen stuff. Not to say you will not, just comparing scenarios. We can not buy winter precip here so far.

[Portastorm]

Porta, we had a similar scenario last night with moderate rain, temp dropped to 32.9 with dp 30, all rain. It was a close call, but no frozen stuff. Not to say you will not, just comparing scenarios. We can not buy winter precip here so far.

Wow, close call huh?! That's one to sweat out ...

Several days ago, I know Charlotte was concerned about a possible wintry event early this week ... guess it didn't pan out.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

A quick look at JB this morning and he thinks a pattern like Dec 1983 or Jan 1985 might happen towards the end of the month and the begining of February. Those of us in Texas that were around in 1983 should recall that outbreak. If I were a Plumber, my businees might go into overdrive if this indeed does occur.

The Dec 1983 outbreak was more harsh on Texas than the Jan 1985 outbreak. None the less, the 1985 outbreak did make the state quite cold for a period of time.

[boca]

How can we have a pattern like that without a -NAO and a blocking pattern. Is the NAO suppossed to tank. The pattern has been progressive for so long its hard to get cold to move southward.

[Portastorm]

How can we have a pattern like that without a -NAO and a blocking pattern. Is the NAO suppossed to tank. The pattern has been progressive for so long its hard to get cold to move southward.

That is his (JB) point ... the NAO is going to tank big time, or so he suggests. I might add that I have read other long-range forecasters suggest something similar as of the last few days.l

[double D]

How can we have a pattern like that without a -NAO and a blocking pattern. Is the NAO suppossed to tank. The pattern has been progressive for so long its hard to get cold to move southward.

That is his (JB) point ... the NAO is going to tank big time, or so he suggests. I might add that I have read other long-range forecasters suggest something similar as of the last few days.l

Today's run of the 12z GFS looks very warm for the long range and quite different from previous runs. I suspect this run did not pick up the features upstream very well as this run is very different from the past 5 or 6 runs of the GFS.

[aggiecutter]

The models are showing a moderate brand of cold, but nothing extreme, much less very cold for the southern plains. I also noticed that Don mentioned that the southern plains would be somewhat below normal in his February 1-7 update, not much below or anything extreme. Right now, I'm hedging my bets with Don. It will be cold, but nothing out of the ordinary. Having said that, it will be cold enough for winter precipitation in this time frame, though.

[aggiecutter]

double D, the models have been trending that way in the very long range the last 3 or 4 runs, atleast the GFS has. It could be the model over reacting to the vortex in central Canada and pulling the jet up across the US-Candian border. However, the model has been, and this particular run also, the 12z, consistent in projecting winter weather over Northern Texas for the last 4 days during the 7-10 day time frame.

[CaptinCrunch]

A quick look at JB this morning and he thinks a pattern like Dec 1983 or Jan 1985 might happen towards the end of the month and the begining of February. Those of us in Texas that were around in 1983 should recall that outbreak. If I were a Plumber, my business might go into overdrive if this indeed does occur.

The Dec 1983 outbreak was more harsh on Texas than the Jan 1985 outbreak. None the less, the 1985 outbreak did make the state quite cold for a period of time.

January 1962

Severe cold wave January 9-12
At Fort Worth, storm struck suddenly with near blizzard conditions
Cars stranded on icy roads; schools and businesses forced to close
3 ½ days of below freezing temperatures caused pipes to burst
Freeze in lower Rio Grande Valley caused extensive damage to crops

December 1983

Series of cold waves December 18-30; a record 295 consecutive hours below freezing
Inconvenienced travel, strained power supplies. (All schools and many business's across the D/FW area had to close due to natural gas and power supply demands)
Many water pipes burst, damaging residences and causing icy roads.
Damage $50-100 million statewide; $1.5 million in Tarrant county alone.

December 1989

Sharp cold wave December 20-24 spread over all of Texas and southeast U.S.
Record demands for power; many pipes frozen; $25 million in damage at Dallas
Considerable damage to citrus in Florida and south Texas

[wxman57]

Today's run of the 12z GFS looks very warm for the long range and quite different from previous runs. I suspect this run did not pick up the features upstream very well as this run is very different from the past 5 or 6 runs of the GFS.

I'm looking at the 12Z GFS and don't see a very warm pattern at all. You must be referring to the GFS's attempt at depicting surface features? Take a look at the 500mb cross-Polar flow setting up next week, bringing Siberian air across the Pole, through Canada, and across the U.S. Looks pretty darn cold across much of the U.S. with the Polar vortex sinking south to Hudson Bay in early February. The GFS won't handle this type of pattern well in the low levels, so it'll do very poorly with highs/lows, fronts, etc.

Now the 12Z GFS doesn't show the cross-Polar flow lasting for as long as on the previous runs, perhaps that's what you mean. But with the snow pack down to the Red Rive, any Arctic air intrusions are not going to be modified much on the way to Texas.

[Ptarmigan]

January 1962

Severe cold wave January 9-12
At Fort Worth, storm struck suddenly with near blizzard conditions
Cars stranded on icy roads; schools and businesses forced to close
3 ½ days of below freezing temperatures caused pipes to burst
Freeze in lower Rio Grande Valley caused extensive damage to crops

December 1983

Series of cold waves December 18-30; a record 295 consecutive hours below freezing
Inconvenienced travel, strained power supplies. (All schools and many business's across the D/FW area had to close due to natural gas and power supply demands)
Many water pipes burst, damaging residences and causing icy roads.
Damage $50-100 million statewide; $1.5 million in Tarrant county alone.

December 1989

Sharp cold wave December 20-24 spread over all of Texas and southeast U.S.
Record demands for power; many pipes frozen; $25 million in damage at Dallas
Considerable damage to citrus in Florida and south Texas

I remember the freezes of 1983 and 1989. 1983 was colder for a longer time. 1989 had snow and it was much colder, but for a shorter time. Afterwards, it was a milder winter in early 1990.

[double D]

Today's run of the 12z GFS looks very warm for the long range and quite different from previous runs. I suspect this run did not pick up the features upstream very well as this run is very different from the past 5 or 6 runs of the GFS.

I'm looking at the 12Z GFS and don't see a very warm pattern at all. You must be referring to the GFS's attempt at depicting surface features? Take a look at the 500mb cross-Polar flow setting up next week, bringing Siberian air across the Pole, through Canada, and across the U.S. Looks pretty darn cold across much of the U.S. with the Polar vortex sinking south to Hudson Bay in early February. The GFS won't handle this type of pattern well in the low levels, so it'll do very poorly with highs/lows, fronts, etc.

Now the 12Z GFS doesn't show the cross-Polar flow lasting for as long as on the previous runs, perhaps that's what you mean. But with the snow pack down to the Red Rive, any Arctic air intrusions are not going to be modified much on the way to Texas.

What I should have said is that the pattern across Texas looked more progressive than the last cold outbreak, but you bring up a good point about the surface features being handled poorly by the gfs. I guess it's hard to get a sense of the depth of cold because the GFS handles arctic air masses so poorly.

[double D]

double D, the models have been trending that way in the very long range the last 3 or 4 runs, atleast the GFS has. It could be the model over reacting to the vortex in central Canada and pulling the jet up across the US-Candian border. However, the model has been, and this particular run also, the 12z, consistent in projecting winter weather over Northern Texas for the last 4 days during the 7-10 day time frame.

Yeah next Tuesday and Wednesday look interesting for north Texas (perhaps for central Texas too), if that verifies, north Texas could see some pretty good snow/ice totals.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

January 1962

Severe cold wave January 9-12
At Fort Worth, storm struck suddenly with near blizzard conditions
Cars stranded on icy roads; schools and businesses forced to close
3 ½ days of below freezing temperatures caused pipes to burst
Freeze in lower Rio Grande Valley caused extensive damage to crops

December 1983

Series of cold waves December 18-30; a record 295 consecutive hours below freezing
Inconvenienced travel, strained power supplies. (All schools and many business's across the D/FW area had to close due to natural gas and power supply demands)
Many water pipes burst, damaging residences and causing icy roads.
Damage $50-100 million statewide; $1.5 million in Tarrant county alone.

December 1989

Sharp cold wave December 20-24 spread over all of Texas and southeast U.S.
Record demands for power; many pipes frozen; $25 million in damage at Dallas
Considerable damage to citrus in Florida and south Texas

I remember the freezes of 1983 and 1989. 1983 was colder for a longer time. 1989 had snow and it was much colder, but for a shorter time. Afterwards, it was a milder winter in early 1990.

1983 was a "step down" event leading up to tbe big front at Christmas that brought the record breaking stuff. And it took awhile to warm up close to anything normal till a few days after the New Year.

1989 it got cold before the big front right before Christmas. But not quite as cold as 1983. Then like 1983, the big front came in and kept it below freezing and broke records for three or four days. Then it warmed up pretty quickly there after.

The pattern does indeed look like Dec 1983 if the ending ends up being what JB and some other pro mets are suggesting. We've spent a week at below normal. In fact way below normal. The temp in Corpus reached 61 yesterday for the first time since a week ago Sunday and most of the last week was spent in the 40's for highs. That was the set up right before the big Christmas freeze of 83.

[Below N.O.]

Any one look at the temperatures in northern Canada! -30's and -40's!!!!!

http://maps.wunderground.com/global/CA_NU.html

That is some serious cold and if we do get this to ride far enough south (that's the key) with the snow pack to our north it could be an extremely cold event.
Tom Skilling showed his 8 day animation coming down to the gulf!

[jasons2k]

If I had a dollar for every time JB brought up '78, '83, '85, '89, or 1899 I wouldn't need insurance for Caleb's NICU care.

[rsdoug1981]

The end of the 12z Euro looks...nice.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... uv850_z500

Choose North America at left menu and pick your time. Also set your parameter at Geopotential 500hPA.