TX Winter Wx Threat # 9--- Another Arctic Outbreak?

[Johnny]

do you have a link to that?

To get the link, you must travel far and beyond to where Mr. Bastardi stands tall amongst the foothills of the NWS!

[TrekkerCC]

Here is the updated NWS Ft. Worth Office Discussion fresh off the presses:

000
FXUS64 KFWD 192126
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
326 PM CST FRI JAN 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
NORTHERN BAJA...WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED OVER THE REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH COLD CORE INSTABILITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
STARTING TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AS SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING SPLIT NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE MAIN
PLUME...INDICATING THE STRENGTH OF THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTH TX WEATHER.

LIGHT RAIN HAS PERSISTED OVER NORTH TX TODAY IN A BROAD REGION OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT /EVIDENT ON THE 295-310K SURFACES/. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS YET TO DEVELOP. 925MB AND 850MB WINDS
HAVE VEERED FROM A NORTHEAST COMPONENT TO A EAST/SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS /PER SOUTH TX AND LA PROFILER TRENDS/.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS BOTH RUC ANALYSIS AND NAM
PROGS CONTINUE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INTO TEXAS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KICK INTO HIGH GEAR
AFTER 00Z ACROSS WESTERN/WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...ALONG WITH A BROAD
PLUME OF LOW CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS DEVELOPING OVER THE SAME
REGION. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS OUT WEST ACCORDINGLY...BRINGING THE
HIGHER POPS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS AS THE LIFT SPREADS
EASTWARD.

NAM AND GFS STILL HAVE THEIR DISAGREEMENTS ON THE DEPTH/STRENGTH OF
SUB FREEZING THERMAL PROFILES. GIVEN THE WAA ALREADY IN PLACE...WE
WILL STILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SOLN OF THE NAM. HPC GUIDANCE AND
SREF ALSO AGREE WITH THE WARMER LINE OF THINKING. IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH DIURNAL COOLING TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WET
BULB COOLING /WHICH WILL COOL LOW LVL TEMPS TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING/ WILL WARRANT MENTION OF LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW IN
THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES PREVIOUSLY IN THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. AS A RESULT OF THE EXPECTED MIXED
PRECIPITATION...WE WILL REPLACE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITHIN THE SAME GEOGRAPHIC AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY...AS SOME LIGHT FROZEN PRECIP WILL LIKELY LAG THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS ACTIVE WEATHER.

AN ENHANCED AREA OF LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE AND DEFORMATION WILL
DEVELOP ALONG OUR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
INTO SAT EVENING. WAA INTO THE REGION WILL BE DRIVEN IN PART BY A
40-50KT LLJ AND WILL LIKELY HELP DEVELOP A PLUME OF MODERATELY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. THE NAM ALSO PROGS A
RIDGE OF HIGHER K INDICES EAST OF THE I-30 AND I-45 CORRIDORS. AS A
RESULT...WE HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN INTO OUR
EASTERN ZONES.

RATHER ABRUPT DRY PUNCH SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTH TX LATE SUN
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. PRECIP
WILL END WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR A DRY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE CWA.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO TX MON INTO
TUES...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE
HINTING AT THE SYSTEM ELONGATING AND SHEARING IN THE MID LVL FLOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS SUGGEST THE COLUMN WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SNOW...BUT THE GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD AIR FOR THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM...SO TEND TO
BELIEVE THE GFS MAY BE BATTLING A COLD BIAS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL
KEEP THE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...BUT HAVE
INCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW END CHC CATEGORY. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED...REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 50S OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY WED/THUR/FRI OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
DISCREPANCY EXISTS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/UKMET AND GFS IN REGARDS TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS FOR POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SCHULTZ

I'm actually more excited about this second upper-level disturbance. If temperatures get cold enough (cold air is reinforced or cold air advection occurs), then North Texas could have a nice little snowstorm. I do note that the Ft. Worth office has mentioned that the GFS is suffering from a case of cold air bias, but it does look promising. Especially since all the winter weather appears to stay west of us during the weekend. Not that I am really complaining as we may get another 1.00"+ total from this weekend storm, which it would be great for our region as we are still under drought conditions.

[aggiecutter]

Found this information on the CPC website, concerning their "Threat Assessments":

SYNOPSIS: Surges of cold air from Canada will overspread most of the lower 48 states east of the Continental Divide. With little available moisture in these Arctic/Polar air masses to work with, storm activity will diminish across the CONUS during most of this period. In the West, near normal to above normal temperatures are forecast, which will be a welcome change from the citrus-damaging freezes of the past week. By the end of this Assessment period, there are preliminary indications that bitterly cold Arctic air situated over northeast Alaska and northwest Canada may be headed for the central and eastern CONUS in early February.

[gboudx]

Email from jeff today for NTX:

Winter Storm Watch has been replaced with a Winter Weather Advisory NW of Dallas/ Fort Worth area.



Main winter weather threat will be freezing rain NW of the metro areas through Saturday night.



Track of main upper storm is further north and models are warmer suggesting little threat of freezing or frozen precip. over the metro areas.



Will need to keep a close watch on the next storm forecast for early next week as temps. may be colder and the threat of winter precip. higher over a larger area.

[Extremeweatherguy]

an amazing point to ponder for those in Houston...

We are currently on day 4 of below 50-degree temperatures in Houston. Tomorrow and Saturday call for more of the same, so that would make SIX DAYS IN A ROW below 50-degrees here in Houston.

Wondering when the last time was we saw a 6 day period below 50 here in Houston?

The answer is this: It has NOT happened within the last 7+ year history of IAH and it likely has not happened within the last 10 years either. This is truly an amazing long cold stretch for us. The longest stretch IAH has had within the last 7 years of recorded weather history was about 4 days of sub-50 weather on one or two occassions in the last 7 years.

Crazy to think about, isn't it?

BTW:

The last 4 days at IAH were as follows (high temps):

MON - 45 degrees
TUES - 37 degrees
WED - 36 degrees
THURS - 44 degrees

and here is the forecast for the next 2 days:

FRI - 45
SAT - 49/50<<going to be a close call on Saturday

Beyond this stretch below 50, it looks like an even longer stretch below 60 may be on the way. Sunday through Wednesday of next week (and likely beyond) are forecast to only be in the 40s and 50s. There actually seems to be a good chance we may close out January and begin February without hitting 60-degrees here in Houston!

Considering the average high is 61-63 this time of year..that is a pretty big deal and goes to show how cold this pattern we are in really is.

**This is in no way Houston's coldest or longest stretch of cold weather though. Hard to believe, but in 1951 the city stayed below 32 degrees for 4-6 days. Could you imagine that? Not to mention the inch and a half of ice that also went along with that long freeze.**

An update to my post yesterday: Well, unexpectedly the streak below 50-degrees ended today for IAH with an official high of 51-degrees (6-degrees higher than forecast). However, this streak does still tie with only 1-3 other below-50 streaks in the last 7 years, so that is still pretty significant.

Now it is on to watch how long we stay below 60-degrees for. So far we are on day 5 of the streak, and with all extended forecasts showing us staying below 60 for at least the next 7 days we could very well be in for a 12+ day stretch.

BTW: The longest stretch of below-60 weather we have seen at IAH within the last 7 years was 9 days (which happened on two occassions). If the current forecast holds, then it looks like we may shatter that streak by a considerable amount. We shall see..

[double D]

Email from jeff today for NTX:

Winter Storm Watch has been replaced with a Winter Weather Advisory NW of Dallas/ Fort Worth area.



Main winter weather threat will be freezing rain NW of the metro areas through Saturday night.



Track of main upper storm is further north and models are warmer suggesting little threat of freezing or frozen precip. over the metro areas.



Will need to keep a close watch on the next storm forecast for early next week as temps. may be colder and the threat of winter precip. higher over a larger area.

Did Jeff say where he thinks the trouble areas are for Texas early next week? I'm by far no expert, but the models don't seem overly aggressive with QPF around the state....but we know it doesn't take much to cause problems

[gboudx]

No. That was the full extent of the email. Maybe he'll login and provide an update.

[jasons2k]

I'm enjoying this weather...cool but not frigid. Also, it looks like all my plants did well during the ice.

[TexasStooge]

Finally, we're out of the wintry mix-up...but for how long though? However, we have a slight chance of a rain and snow mix on Tuesday. Even if we do get any freezing rain, it's gonna be very little in DFW. Hope the panhandle enjoys the snow there.

NWS Forecasts:

WICHITA FALLS
Saturday: 33°F | 31°F
Sunday: 38°F | 26°F
Monday: 34°F | 22°F
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ABILENE
Saturday: 32°F | 28°F
Sunday: 43°F | 27°F
Monday: 34°F | 25°F
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LUBBOCK
Saturday: 31°F | 24°F
Sunday: 30°F | 18°F
Monday: 31°F | 16°F
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMARILLO
Saturday: 29°F | 20°F
Sunday: 31°F | 19°F
Monday: 29°F | 14°F
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EL PASO
Saturday: 39°F | 30°F
Sunday: 44°F | 29°F
Monday: 36°F | 24°F

[Wren]

I'm a little late in responding. and thank you for the info on how to do a slide show, Shoshana!

Guess I was the only one on here in the Austin area that lost power during the great ice storm that wasn't nuffin like what Oklahoma got slammed with. So much for having underground utilities in my area.

[TexasStooge]

Here's some good news for all of us North Texans:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
155 AM CST SAT JAN 20 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELLED...

.A WIDESPREAD COLD RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING
THE RAIN EVENT...AND SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED.


TXZ091-092-100>102-115-116-129-200900-
/O.CAN.KFWD.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-070121T1200Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-EASTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...GRAHAM...
OLNEY...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...BRECKENRIDGE...
MINERAL WELLS...CISCO...EASTLAND...RANGER...GORMAN
155 AM CST SAT JAN 20 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT HAD BEEN IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. ANY SLEET THAT
DOES FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MIXED WITH RAIN AND WILL QUICKLY MELT
ON THE GROUND.

[Portastorm]

I'm not too optimistic about any significant winter weather events this week for parts of Texas south of Waco. 0z and 6z GFS runs today, while wetter for Monday-Wednesday, are warmer than yesterday. The Euro as well looks too warm for wintry precip and is even a little less excited about precip outside of some minor overrunning.

[aggiecutter]

Looking at the morning Ensembles, it doesn't look like the real arctic cold will return until the end of the month, or the beginning of February. Until then, it looks like a day or two of below normal temps before a brief warmup and another cool down. However, it does look like business will pick up in a big way as February comes calling.

Morning Ensembles:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... times.html

[double D]

I'm not too optimistic about any significant winter weather events this week for parts of Texas south of Waco. 0z and 6z GFS runs today, while wetter for Monday-Wednesday, are warmer than yesterday. The Euro as well looks too warm for wintry precip and is even a little less excited about precip outside of some minor overrunning.

yeah, it doesn't look like much right now. I guess we will have to wait for the end of the month before the cold hits again....but even the gfs has been all over the place with that too.

I say if we are not going to get any snow, then I want the sun to come out and warm things up a little bit ( I miss the sun).

[Tamora]

someone between us here in Amarillo and you guys in Lubbock is going to get hammered by this storm.

My sister is in Muleshoe south of Amarillo and they have 8 inches of snow as of 9am on Saturday.

[abcd4]

Question for Aggie cutter. I dont know how to read the ensembles. Can you give me a lesson on Weather for Dummies?

[Kennethb]

Early February has historically been the most favorable time for the coldest and snowiest periods for us in the deep south. From the look of the Ensembles, with the active southern jet should prove fruitful.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

good maybe some snow for us is not out of the question

[wall_cloud]

we have a good 6-8" of snow on the ground in Amarillo. Still coming down good.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Another ice threat possible next week for north Houston?

Latest NWS forecast:

This Afternoon: Periods of showers. High near 49. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Tonight: Periods of rain. Low around 45. East wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph.

Sunday Night: Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 51. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 41.

Tuesday: Rain likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday Night: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33.

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55.

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a high near 56.

temps. in the lower 30s with a 20-30% chance of precip. bears watching IMO.