Arctic Blast for Florida?

[ronjon]

Looks like it's Florida's turn finally for some frigid weather!

From 1/19 HPC Disc:

...EAST...
WAVY SERN FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SWD ACROSS FL MON INTO LATE THU. LOWERING HTS AND TEMPS MID WEEK ONWARD AS THE DEEP ERN TROF GETS ESTABLISHED. BECOMING QUITE WINDY AND COLD ME TO FL BY FRI WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. POTENTIAL OF NERN COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS SEEN BY GFS/UKMET AND NOGAPS RUNS AND YTDAS 12Z CANADIAN AFFECTING NEW ENG WITH HVY SNOW HIGH WINDS DAY 7 FRI. BEING DAY 7 HPC WILL TONE THIS DOWN SFC REFLECTION S OF CAPE SABLE AND E OF CAPE COD CLOSER TO
00Z GFS.

ONE OF THE 00Z D+8 GFS COMPOSITE ANALOGS LINK TO 19 JAN 1977. THIS WAS RECORD EXTREME COLD OVER FLORIDA. INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS AND FORECAST HT AND TEMP ANOMALY FIELDS WHILE WELL BELOW NORMAL ARE NOT IN THE RANGE OF THIS RECORD EVENT BUT MEAN COMPOSITE SUGGESTS A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH THE 1977 EVENT THE COLDEST OF THE COMPOSITE SOLUTIONS OVER FL SRN. NEEDS TO BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY BY AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS. WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN BASICALLY IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE THE LONGER TERM MODEL RUN OUTS OF
THE GFS HAVE A SIMILAR EVEN COLDER COLD SURGE ABOUT AROUND 5 DAYS LATER NEAR THE END OF THE MONTH.

[Steve H.]

Was just about to post that ronion. Could rival '77? WOW! guys I know that went to FIT that year may a snowman here in Melbourne. We'll see how the pattern evolves. But it looks like the heat will subside during the upcoming week.

[HURRICANELONNY]

The real truth is it will rival the usual normal temps by a couple of degrees after all the GFS runs.

[x-y-no]

I remember that '77 event. That was a good strong one ...

[NDG]

The trustworthy Euro right now is not coming along with the 12z GFS run's Arctic Outbreak for FL by the end of next week.

[JonathanBelles]

the last GFS was a dud.

[Janie2006]

I remember that '77 event. That was a good strong one ...

grandma Janie

The winter of '77 ya say?

leans back in rocking chair, puffs on corncob pipe

Well, lemmee tell ya that was a cold one. My bones ached for weeks afterwards.

grandma Janie


Seriously though, I remember that one, and I was a wee bairn of 8. If this one is anything like '77, look out.

[JonathanBelles]

I've done some research and I would really like to see an event like that.

[aggiecutter]

The CPC's 8-14 mentions the possibility of record breaking cold. It looks like the brunt of the cold air will be in the east in February.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 27 - FEB 02, 2007:

THE COLD PATTERN FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WEEK 2. IF
THE FORECASTED HEIGHT PATTERN VERIFIES... THEN RECORD SETTING COLD IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING FLORIDA. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA WHILE PERSISTING A SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. DUE TO THE STABLE
LONGWAVE PATTERN... TODAYS OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT CHART IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO
YESTERDAYS... ALTHOUGH THE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS ARE GREATER IN
MAGNITUDE. IN ADDITION... THE WEEK 2 OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT CHART IS QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE EXPECTED 6-10 DAY HEIGHT FIELD. THEREFORE... LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE WELL BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EAST. TEMPERATURE TOOLS SUGGEST THAT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATUES WILL BE MORE EXPANSIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS COMPARED TO DAYS
6-10 WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST.
ELSEWHERE... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE
WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA.
PRECIPITATION TOOLS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT ALONG WITH THE CPC AUTO
AND CDC PRECIPITATION FORECASTS INDICATE THAT A DRY PATTERN WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE CONUS. ALTHOUGH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FOREAST FOR MUCH
OF THE EAST... COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED INTO THE
BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE CONUS EXISTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MEANWHILE... A TROUGH
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL STEER PACIFIC STORMS INTO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE
WHERE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY.

[boca]

If we in Florida are getting or possibly getting an artic blast why are my low's for Thursday nite 51°F. Thats about 7 degrees below normal. I a skeptic when it comes to cold air especially in S FL.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... 7&map.y=84

[Burn1]

Looking at the following week for a dramatic cool down if possible.....Pattern starts to shift at the middle to the end of this coming week......

[Burn1]

Blue Florida?? Man is that blue, or purple? Cold!!!

[/url]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

[TampaFl]

NWS MLB does not think so:

000
FXUS62 KMLB 201003
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
500 AM EST SAT JAN 20 2007

.
WED-FRI...WILL BE DISCOUNTING THE OPERATIONAL GFS...DUE TO THE LARGE
VARIABILITY EXHIBITED IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. GFS LOOKS TO EJECT A
CUTOFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOO QUICKLY WHICH HAS SIGNIFICANT
RAMIFICATIONS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THU. WILL INSTEAD BE FOLLOWING THE ECMWF...WHICH GENERALLY
HAS SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED WED-WED NIGHT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN THU
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TROUGH WILL LIKELY LIFT OUT QUICKLY BY
FRI...DECREASING CHANCES FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN.

[TampaFl]

Ditto for NWS MIA:

000
FXUS62 KMFL 200939
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
439 AM EST SAT JAN 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST
EARLY TODAY WILL SLIDE EAST AND VEER THE LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AROUND TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH MONDAY AND THEN SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS MODEL AT 00Z WAS DEPICTING A LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY THAT WAS NOT DEPICTED ON
ANY PREVIOUS RUN. IF THIS WOULD PAN OUT, THE FRONT WOULD BE
DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. BUT SINCE THE
00Z RUN IS THE FIRST SHOWING THIS DEVELOPMENT, WILL WAIT AND SEE
IF THE GFS WILL CONTINUE SHOWING THIS SCENARIO. SO HAVE WENT MORE
WITH THE ECMWF AND DGEX AND BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. (MORE IN LINE WITH
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.) THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHEST POPS
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH LI'S GETTING DOWN TO
ONLY NEAR 0. HAVE DEVIATED AWAY FROM THE MEXMOS POPS AND BROUGHT
THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THURSDAY AND ENDING OVER SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER WILL BE ON
TAP ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND
HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 70.

[TampaFl]

NWS TPA says cooler though:

000
FXUS62 KTBW 200750
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
250 AM EST SAT JAN 20 2007

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...SLOW-MOVING FRONT OVER NORTH
FLORIDA WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY. LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF
THE GFS HAVE HINTED AT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE BOUNDARY BACK IN THE
WESTERN GULF. IF THIS VERIFIES...THE FRONT WOULD HANG UP TO OUR
NORTH A LITTLE LONGER. HOWEVER...DGEX/ECMWF/NOGAPS ALL HAVE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE COOLER THICKNESSES PUSH
SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO DISCOUNT THE GFS FOR NOW AND MAINTAIN SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY FRIDAY...COLD HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MUST MAINTAIN ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES. THEN WILL DROP DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE ON
THURSDAY...IN DEFERENCE TO GFS CONSISTENCY IN LOW DEVELOPMENT. BY
FRIDAY...AREA SHOULD CLEAR OUT AS VERY DRY AND COLD AIR MOVES IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF ABOVE NORMAL...THEN GO TO AROUND NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN
READINGS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

[TampaFl]

It appears that this "artic out break all hinges on low pressure developing in the gulf next week and pulling in the cold air. From reading the above posted NWS AFDs from MLB,MIA,& TPA they are not ready to bite on the GFS model runs at this time. Thoughts & comments welcomed.

[boca]

Doesn't look like artic air is in Florida's cards at least according to NWS Miami. Lows in the 50's isn't an artic front in my book.

HAVE DEVIATED AWAY FROM THE MEXMOS POPS AND BROUGHT
THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THURSDAY AND ENDING OVER SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER WILL BE ON
TAP ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND
HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 70.

I'm not suprised that we can't shake the SE ridge.

[Janie2006]

It appears that this "artic out break all hinges on low pressure developing in the gulf next week and pulling in the cold air. From reading the above posted NWS AFDs from MLB,MIA,& TPA they are not ready to bite on the GFS model runs at this time. Thoughts & comments welcomed.

NWS New Orleans isn't biting on the arctic solution either......nor are any of the surrounding NWS offices, I might add. The most common reason given is the model disagreement. We're certainly seeing a large amount of variation at the moment.

[boca]

Artic air and Florida don't compute at least this winter. I'm still holding tough on my winter cancel thoughts. The SE ridge as been with us since the fall why should anything change.

[NDG]

I'm not buying the GFS's Arctic outbreak for FL, I see a wetter pattern setting up for us than a colder pattern, cooler in between systems yes, but not record breaking like the CPC was saying yesterday.