Need to redefine El Nino for Florida

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boca
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Need to redefine El Nino for Florida

#1 Postby boca » Wed Jan 17, 2007 7:50 am

Text book definition is for El Nino to bring cooler and wetter conditions to Florida and I'm talking about Central and Southern Florida. North Florida usually gets the same weather as Georgia or Alabama. We have an El Nino and so far its been warm and dry typical of La Nina. I'm no longer putting stock into thinking that El Nino will automatically bring us wet and cooler conditions.
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#2 Postby NDG » Wed Jan 17, 2007 8:25 am

All it will take is for the subtropical jet to be pushed our way for the rainy pattern to move back into FL, and there is a chance of that happening into the end of next week. Because there is a weak to mod El Nino, doesn't mean that it will be cool and rainy all of the time. I remember many times when I lived in New Orleans during past El Nino winters that while there was cool and rainy weather across the northern gulfcoast, in central and southern FL was most of the times warm & humid because of the positioning of the subtropical jet.
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#3 Postby cpdaman » Thu Jan 18, 2007 12:25 pm

yep i'm thinkin that s. fl will have a cold february , at least by our standards

p.s do u know where the cold "spot" is in S. FL
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#4 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Jan 18, 2007 2:04 pm

we better have a cold february, but im thinking the opposite will happen.
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#5 Postby O Town » Thu Jan 18, 2007 2:13 pm

:uarrow: Me too factola.

I can't remeber a time when we hadn't had at least one freeze or near freeze by now. I don't know what this means for the summer and cane season ahead, but I hope its not more of the same.
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#6 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Fri Jan 19, 2007 7:36 am

Today is the 30 year anniversary of the day it snowed in S. Fl. On Jan 19,1977 it SNOWED!
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/16494387.htm :eek:
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#7 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Fri Jan 19, 2007 7:49 am

OK. LETS GET EVERYONES OPINION ON HOW MUCH THIS WILL CHANGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND IF IT WILL HAPPEN AT ALL:
http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... Lauderdale :lol:
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#8 Postby boca » Fri Jan 19, 2007 7:56 am

HURRICANELONNY wrote:OK. LETS GET EVERYONES OPINION ON HOW MUCH THIS WILL CHANGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND IF IT WILL HAPPEN AT ALL:
http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... Lauderdale :lol:


It will change for the warmer or they'll say the front will hang up at the lake. I have to hand it to them though, they said low thickness values and didn't give an actual low temp for Thurs and Fri in case it backfires on them. NWS Miami is getting smart.
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#9 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Fri Jan 19, 2007 8:11 am

The only real difference this time is the globals are in it to:http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/m500z_f168_usbg.gif
:roll:
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#10 Postby Patrick99 » Fri Jan 19, 2007 1:44 pm

I can't remember the last time we had a "cold February." I think February might be a bit too late.

I remember some strong cold fronts in February and March, but generally I have never thought of either as a cold month....I'll be very surprised if February is cold beyond the occasional 1-2 day cool hit.
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#11 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Fri Jan 19, 2007 2:45 pm

I'm not totally sure but was it cool down here the last time the SOI was strongly negative? Say around Thanksgiving?
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/
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Re: Need to redefine El Nino for Florida

#12 Postby weartherkid » Tue Jan 23, 2007 10:18 pm

boca wrote:Text book definition is for El Nino to bring cooler and wetter conditions to Florida and I'm talking about Central and Southern Florida. North Florida usually gets the same weather as Georgia or Alabama. We have an El Nino and so far its been warm and dry typical of La Nina. I'm no longer putting stock into thinking that El Nino will automatically bring us wet and cooler conditions.

how is you weather in florida today ?
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Re: Need to redefine El Nino for Florida

#13 Postby JonathanBelles » Tue Jan 23, 2007 10:32 pm

weartherkid wrote:
boca wrote:Text book definition is for El Nino to bring cooler and wetter conditions to Florida and I'm talking about Central and Southern Florida. North Florida usually gets the same weather as Georgia or Alabama. We have an El Nino and so far its been warm and dry typical of La Nina. I'm no longer putting stock into thinking that El Nino will automatically bring us wet and cooler conditions.

how is you weather in florida today ?


a little cooler (closer to average day) and a slight drizzle.
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#14 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Jan 23, 2007 11:34 pm

Looks like tomorrow may be one of the coldest so far this winter for the Orlando area...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... &map.y=138

highs in the mid 50s with rain seems pretty chilly when compared to the temps. in the 80s you guys have been seeing in Central Florida. Also, it looks like more normal or slightly below normal temps. should follow over the next weeks. Highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s (even flirting with the 30s on occassion) must feel like a big change.
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Re: Need to redefine El Nino for Florida

#15 Postby wall_cloud » Tue Jan 23, 2007 11:50 pm

boca wrote:Text book definition is for El Nino to bring cooler and wetter conditions to Florida and I'm talking about Central and Southern Florida. North Florida usually gets the same weather as Georgia or Alabama. We have an El Nino and so far its been warm and dry typical of La Nina. I'm no longer putting stock into thinking that El Nino will automatically bring us wet and cooler conditions.


nothing is automatic about an El Nino pattern. They are all different. They are just "typical" patterns.
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#16 Postby NDG » Wed Jan 24, 2007 12:20 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Looks like tomorrow may be one of the coldest so far this winter for the Orlando area...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... &map.y=138

highs in the mid 50s with rain seems pretty chilly when compared to the temps. in the 80s you guys have been seeing in Central Florida. Also, it looks like more normal or slightly below normal temps. should follow over the next weeks. Highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s (even flirting with the 30s on occassion) must feel like a big change.



Not just the cooler wx, but a rainy pattern getting started for the FL Peninsula for the next week or two at least, as I pointed out last week, seems that every 3-4 days a disturbance will be tracking out of the Gulf through the peninsula.
S FL will get into this as well.
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