AL/GA/SC/NC/TN winter weather discussion & obs thread
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AL/GA/SC/NC/TN winter weather discussion & obs thread
Currently 38.1 here in beautiful Acworth, GA with some light IP.
Last edited by ga_ben on Thu Jan 18, 2007 5:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- GeneratorPower
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Extremely light snow hitting my windsheild, going to work, this morning - our
joke - "Get out your magnifying glass!"
On a serious note, the mets are struggling with the forecast for Sat night/Sunday
here - what do you think may happen? I'm supposed to go to a birthday party,
25 miles west on Saturday night. I always spend the night (I have my own
bedroom at my best friend's house!) Should I cancel and stay home?
~Annette...aka...Old & Leary
joke - "Get out your magnifying glass!"

On a serious note, the mets are struggling with the forecast for Sat night/Sunday
here - what do you think may happen? I'm supposed to go to a birthday party,
25 miles west on Saturday night. I always spend the night (I have my own
bedroom at my best friend's house!) Should I cancel and stay home?
~Annette...aka...Old & Leary
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- GeneratorPower
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- Lowpressure
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- GeneratorPower
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- Location: Huntsville, AL
Its interesting looking at the low temps in an area I call the Battleground. The area on the GA/SC border where NWS Columbia covers just about all the adjoining GA counties. They are predicting a low temp on Wed. night of between 25 or 28 for the Augusta area. Contrast that with FFC's (Atlanta) low temp of 34 for Warrenton, GA in Greene County which is next to the Augusta area. Now FFC is not out with their afternoon forecast package so it may well change. But that is quite a difference.
Last edited by ga_ben on Mon Jan 29, 2007 3:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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FFC has adjusted their low temps Wed. night down to Columbia's lows give or take a degree. Also, instead of the forecasted rain Wed. night and Thurs. my area of NW of Atlanta now has Wintry mix chances Wed. night and Thursday. Looking forward to the Afternoon AFD. Also curious about a potential Superbowl Sunday event per the Euro. But thats 6 days away.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... 9&map.y=85
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... 9&map.y=85
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000
FXUS62 KFFC 292036
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
336 PM EST MON JAN 29 2007
.SHORT TERM...
THINGS DONT GET INTERESTING UNTIL THE END OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. COLD...DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND GETS
REINFORCED LATE TUESDAY BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR. THIS SURGE
COMES THROUGH DRY SO THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY PROBLEMS THERE. THE 64K
DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW COLD...HOW DEEP AND HOW PERSISTENT THIS COLD
LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS IS IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING LOW OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. MODEL VERTICAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO MIX IN BY SUN UP THURSDAY
MORNING...WHILE TEMPERATURES AT CLOUD LEVEL ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM FOR
SNOW. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE SOURCE OF THE MOISTURE. THERE
IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPEED AND PATH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
NAM SO THE FINAL SOLUTION IS STILL A GOOD BIT WOBBLY FOR NOW. I WILL
BE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO OUTLOOK THE POSSIBILITIES.
.LONG TERM...
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO WARM UP ENOUGH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY TO
TRANSITION THE PRECIPITATION TO ALL LIQUID. RAIN WILL BE ENDING BY
FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW RACES UP THE EAST COAST AND DRIER AIR SPILLS IN
BEHIND. UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOWS SIGNS OF SHIFTING SOMEWHAT FROM ITS
RECENT STATIC PATTERN AS THE STRONG...BROAD...BUT FAIRLY SHALLOW
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST. THIS WOULD
KEEP GEORGIA IN A RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE DROPPING BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
BE LOW ENOUGH TO MEET REQUIREMENTS ALSO...WHICH WAS THE LIMITING
FACTOR TODAY. I WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON MAY BE CLOSE AGAIN AND FURTHER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THAT.
FXUS62 KFFC 292036
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
336 PM EST MON JAN 29 2007
.SHORT TERM...
THINGS DONT GET INTERESTING UNTIL THE END OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. COLD...DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND GETS
REINFORCED LATE TUESDAY BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR. THIS SURGE
COMES THROUGH DRY SO THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY PROBLEMS THERE. THE 64K
DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW COLD...HOW DEEP AND HOW PERSISTENT THIS COLD
LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS IS IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING LOW OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. MODEL VERTICAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO MIX IN BY SUN UP THURSDAY
MORNING...WHILE TEMPERATURES AT CLOUD LEVEL ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM FOR
SNOW. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE SOURCE OF THE MOISTURE. THERE
IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPEED AND PATH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
NAM SO THE FINAL SOLUTION IS STILL A GOOD BIT WOBBLY FOR NOW. I WILL
BE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO OUTLOOK THE POSSIBILITIES.
.LONG TERM...
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO WARM UP ENOUGH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY TO
TRANSITION THE PRECIPITATION TO ALL LIQUID. RAIN WILL BE ENDING BY
FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW RACES UP THE EAST COAST AND DRIER AIR SPILLS IN
BEHIND. UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOWS SIGNS OF SHIFTING SOMEWHAT FROM ITS
RECENT STATIC PATTERN AS THE STRONG...BROAD...BUT FAIRLY SHALLOW
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST. THIS WOULD
KEEP GEORGIA IN A RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE DROPPING BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
BE LOW ENOUGH TO MEET REQUIREMENTS ALSO...WHICH WAS THE LIMITING
FACTOR TODAY. I WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON MAY BE CLOSE AGAIN AND FURTHER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THAT.
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- ncupsscweather
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- Lowpressure
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Lowpressure wrote:NWS Charlotte getting a little more bullish about the event, even saying .5-.7 qpf with cold temps in place. My math may not be the best, but wouldn't that be several inches of total accumulation of whatever falls from the sky? Currently 24.4 and dropping like a rock-8:53 p.m.
That could be pretty significant if the whole event is snow. Liquid/snow ratios ultimately depend on temps. I'm assuming, the temps wil be around 32ish or just slightly lower. That would mean a 1:10 liquid to snow ratio. So...with that qpf, you could be looking at 5-7 inches. A nice southern snow, indeed. If it's wet, heavy snow, it could be a bit lower but, I'd still take it.
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- Lowpressure
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