TX Winter Wx Threat # 9--- Another Arctic Outbreak?

[double D]

Nothing to be worried with yet, but it is interesting to note that the 18z GFS shows quite a wintry mess across TX again (reaching even Houston) by late this month:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _312.shtml
^^afternoon of Jan. 30th^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _324.shtml
^^morning of Jan. 31st^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _336.shtml
^^afternoon of Jan. 31st^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _348.shtml
^^morning of Feb. 1st^^

This seems to be in line with JBs thoughts and some other thoughts I have heard about a possible major winter blast by the week of the 30th (JB calling for possible citrus freeze to south TX and FL). This has also been represented in other model runs and ensemble runs. Either way...regardless of another statewide winter event...it looks like the cold air will continue with a possible brutal shot of arctic air toward late month or early February. I won't get too thrilled with the chances though until it is within 7 days though..

EWG

Am I reading this right? Cold from coast to coast and almost everywhere in between?

Yeah that looks very cold for us in Texas and most of the country. "IF" that would verify we would most likely be as cold or colder than what we saw this week....plus we would see more snow due to the 540 thickness line coming further south.

[aggiecutter]

Here's the CPC's map for next Tuesday. Looks like a good set up for frozen precipitation for much of the state.

CPC Map @ 144hrs:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif

[wall_cloud]

i'm not so concerned about next week yet. Folks in the north and western portions of TX should worry about this weekend first.

[hurrican19]

Here's some photos of the ice in Austin -- My Aunt took these pictures.. Look at the length of those suckers!

[Wren]

I want to post a slide show of the pics I took of the ice, but don't know how. I got this one really cool shot of an icicle that looks like an ice man. The others are the pics of accumulation in the canyon behind my condo.

Can someone help me with that?

[TexasStooge]

The good news is sthat we won't be seeing any winter weather untyil Friday Night, but the bad news is...
_____________________________________________________________

Highway de-icer in short supply

By SHELLY SLATER / WFAA ABC 8

Many of us have been spinning our wheels in the past few days. Icy streets and highways made driving treacherous.

But as still another round of wintry weather is in the forecast, one critical component in the road crew's arsenal is on the verge of running out.

The Texas Department of Transportation says its supply of chemical de-icer is nearly exhausted.

Full Story Here

[Kelarie]

Well hello from icy Austin. It took me about 45 minutes to de-ice the car. That was just crazy. The roads aren't that bad, but getting out of the house was a bit tricky.

So I hope everyone came through this intact.

Kel

[Shoshana]

I want to post a slide show of the pics I took of the ice, but don't know how. I got this one really cool shot of an icicle that looks like an ice man. The others are the pics of accumulation in the canyon behind my condo.

Can someone help me with that?

I used Photobucket.com

Just open a Photobucket account, add your pictures and then click on slideshow and drag and drop your photos that have been uploaded into the slideshow tray. Pick a style and poof. You can have 10 pics per slideshow in a free account.

Just be sure to change your account settings so that the photos are public - or we won't be able to see them!

You can do the same thing at http://www.villagephotos.com/ and http://www.imageshack.us/

[Shoshana]

Well hello from icy Austin. It took me about 45 minutes to de-ice the car. That was just crazy. The roads aren't that bad, but getting out of the house was a bit tricky.

So I hope everyone came through this intact.

Kel

We have alot of ice still on the car not in the garage so my husband took my car (hiding in the garage) to work today.

Even tho it's 33F and I hear dripping, there sure is alot of ice left out there to melt!!!!

They said it was supposed to warm up more today - but I don't see much 'warm up' yet...

[Johnny]

I don't know if y'all remember or not but I rented and R.V. and took the family on a road trip to Amarillo a couple of weeks back...right before the New Year. Amarillo was expecting a good deal of snow but once we got up there, it was an ice storm. We headed north and finally ran into a little bit of snow in Dumas. It was 19 degrees outside with a stiff north wind and spitting snow flurries. I was thinking about heading towards Abilene or southern Oklahoma but I believe the roads are still a mess up that way. The last thing I want to do is roll my Yukon into a ditch! Here are a few pictures of our road trippin adventure into the Panhandle.

My Youngest Son


My Wife and Two Boys


The Scene Heading South Out Of Dumas

[CaptinCrunch]

Great Pics, thanks for sharing.

[gboudx]

The ice on those trees is nuts.

DFW has removed the WSW for most of the CWA, keeping it for the NW counties. In the metroplex, freezing rain is expected to change to rain as temps warm above freezing. Or so the thinking goes at this time.

[CaptinCrunch]

This weekend may be tricky to call, as we know local met's missed the snow and ice we got here yesterday, by predicting it would remain south of area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1225 AM CST THU JAN 18 2007

.UPDATE...
LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST A SLOWER AND WARMER SOLUTION FOR THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT WINTER WEATHER. WE HAVE SCALED BACK ON THE
WINTER STORM WATCH TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. WE WILL ONLY INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF AN
EASTLAND TO GAINESVILLE LINE...AS THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
RECEIVE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND POSSIBLY SNOW.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA...SO WE HAVE DROPPED THE WATCH FROM THE DFW
METRO. DATA WILL CONTINUE TO POUR IN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WE
WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE METROPLEX TO BE ISSUED TOMORROW AS EARLY
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SUB FREEZING AND RESULT IN A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
THIS AFTERNOON TO HIGHLIGHT DETAILS OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA.

[CaptinCrunch]

The ice on those trees is nuts.

DFW has removed the WSW for most of the CWA, keeping it for the NW counties. In the metroplex, freezing rain is expected to change to rain as temps warm above freezing. Or so the thinking goes at this time.

GREAT minds think alike...... or so they say....

[gboudx]

I hear ya. I think for the rest of the winter, I'm just gonna wait and see what happens when the precip starts to fall.

[southerngale]

Interesting article on KHOU. Did the media overreact to the ice storm?

I was one of the ones who got cold and wet, but I didn't blast meteorologists. I blasted everything else around me, though.

I mean...ya watch an approaching winter storm for weeks, you follow model trends, you can't tear yourself away from reading posts on Storm2k, you read the pro mets' opinons, you ask questions, you think to yourself that maybe this time you will see some interesting winter weather, but of course deep down you really hope that SOMEHOW you can squeeze some snow out of this, you prepare your friends and family who think you're nuts because they're looking at forecasts with temps with too high to support anything frozen, much less anything that would qualify as a winter storm. You neglect your work, your family, your friends because you just have to read about the latest run of the GFS, and a local met has just released his afternoon update. Your dishes are begging you to clean them, your laundry is blocking the doorway to your back door (you could have sworn there used to be a door there!), every night is pizza night because who has time to cook?
The least it can do for you is show you a measley pellet or two of sleet, or even one lone icicle that you can break off and put in your freezer so you'll have memories to cherish from Winter Storm 2007. But noooo...just very cold, wet rain.... again.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't think the media overreacted at all! First off..there was an ice storm within the greater Houston area (that did cause some icy roads leading to 1 death), so it's not like nothing happened at all. And second off, had the ice started Monday night instead of Tuesday night (as first thought) then widespread ice accumulations 2-3 times what we saw would have been possible and it would have been a very BIG deal with widespread power loss and vegitation damage. If anything, the media actually underreacted a bit with this storm. 2-3 days out from the event there were still some channels calling for highs in the 40s with mostly just rain and a little sleet mixed in. As we all know that forecast ended up dead wrong. Monday and Tuesday ended up never topping 40 in the greater Houston area (the high temp. at Hooks airport both days was 35 and at IAH it was in the upper 30s).

[gboudx]

Interesting read from the DFW AFD this afternoon. I would love to see JUST snow.

NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE A BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SNOW. WE WILL CARRY A MENTION
OF LIGHT SNOW FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
IMPACT OF THIS EVENT WILL BE REFINED WITH TIME.

[Shoshana]

Guess we'll all be restocking our houses this weekend - next week sounds very iffy, Either buckets of rain, some rain, ice, snow ...

I'm not going thru another ice storm without brownie mix in the house! LOL. I don't even eat brownies but maybe once a year - and I kept craving brownies...

Here's what our Indian Hawthorne berries looked like... the ice just puddled up on top of the vegetation - it froze that fast.

[Tamora]

Interesting read from the DFW AFD this afternoon. I would love to see JUST snow.

NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE A BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SNOW. WE WILL CARRY A MENTION
OF LIGHT SNOW FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
IMPACT OF THIS EVENT WILL BE REFINED WITH TIME.

I thought we were to warm up a bit more next week (Monday-Wed) This is one wild ride!