Columbia SC winter weather ??

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rsvh2000
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Columbia SC winter weather ??

#1 Postby rsvh2000 » Tue Jan 16, 2007 7:18 am

Maybe something interesting for Thursday. Guess we'll see if it pans out. This is copied from this am's NWS in Columbia

...MUCH COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY...

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY WILL
USHER IN A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS...THAN WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE CHANGE TO THE COOLER
AIR...WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE MID 70S FROM MONDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER
AREA...FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN.

AT THE PRESENT TIME...ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SHORT
LIVED AND WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...ICY
CONDITIONS WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING SITUATION...AND IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES...AN ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS SOURCE...FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
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Tricky

#2 Postby jimvb » Tue Jan 16, 2007 7:33 am

And here is Wakefield, Virginia's discussion. Right now only a small fringe of freezing rain is suggested in the GFS run, but this met thinks the forecast could be tricky. He calls for the precipitation to be rain right now.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WED TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 40 DEGREE MARK EVEN WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES INLAND. WINDS OUT OF THE N TO NE MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO
HAND AROUND THE BAY AND COASTAL AREAS...KEEPING THOSE AREAS COOLER
(UPR 30S FOR MAXS). CLR SKIES AT NIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LVL MOISTURE (2-3K FT) MOVING INTO THE
COASTAL AREAS TWDS THU AM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC.
NAM AND GFS SHOW RH VALUES EXCEEDING 90 PERCENT AT H92. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR THE MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL TIDEWATER AND UP THE
BAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SE AND H92 ON BOTH NAM AND GFS ABOVE 90
PERCENT. DECREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTN AS ENOUGH MIXING TAKE
PLACE AT LOW LVLS TO DRY OUR BOUNDARY LAYER.

MODELS DIVERGE ONCE AGAIN AS SYSTEM DVLPS ON STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NAM MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON PRECIP DVLPG BUT QUESTIONING
ANY PRECIP DVLPG EARLIER THAN LATE THU/EARLY FRI WITH SIGNIF DRY AIR
AT MID LVLS TO OVERCOME (PLUS SLOWER SOLN THIS FAR OUT USUALLY WINS
OUT). WITH A STRONG HIGH IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGL THU AM
POTENTIAL FOR SOME COLD AIR DAMMING TO DVLP OVER FAR INLAND BEFORE
PRECIP MOVES IN (ESP IF SLOWER SOLN PANS OUT). THIS MAY MAKE FOR A
TRICKY FORECAST FOR PRECIP TYPE (SNOW/MIX/RAIN) INLAND 2/3RDS FRI.
WILL KEEP ALL PRECIP IN THE FCST AS RAIN AS OVERWHELMING UNCERTAINTY
OF ACTUAL PRECIP/TIMING/AMOUNTS EXIST ATTM. LEFT REST OF EXTENDED AS
IS
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#3 Postby rsvh2000 » Wed Jan 17, 2007 7:13 am

Oh well. Another bust............Although it's a good thing that it won't ice. From Cola NWS


THE DILEMMA CONTINUES AS TO WHAT KIND OF PRECIPITATION WE CAN
EXPECT LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WHEN ISENTROPIC LIFTING BRINGS
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH
OTHER AND CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POTENTIAL FOR A
MARGINAL...SHORT LIVED FREEZING RAIN EVENT DURING THE
08Z-15Z TIME FRAME FOR MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CWA.
HOWEVER...RETURNING CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING TO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES STAY
ABOVE FREEZING...THOUGH THEY MAY NOT BE CAPTURING THE SHALLOW COLD
WEDGE WELL. THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN DOES EXIST BUT WILL
RESULT FROM EVAPORATIVE COOLING AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
BEGINS...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DROP. SOUNDING ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE A 2-3 DEGREE WARM LAYER THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND THE QUESTION REMAINS THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH
OF SHALLOW COLD LAYER AT THE SURFACE. THINK WORST CASE SCENARIO IS
THAT FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AND LASTS FOR 3-5 HOURS
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BUT WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES STILL QUITE
WARM AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING IF NOT AT
FREEZING DURING THAT TIME...THINK THERE WOULD BE MINIMAL IMPACT
FROM ICING...EXCEPT FOR ELEVATED SURFACES.

CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT GIVEN MANY
UNCERTAIN VARIABLES TO GO WITH ANY HEADLINES FOR WHAT WILL BE A
LATE SECOND TO EARLY THIRD PERIOD EVENT. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE
HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. WILL MENTION RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
WORDING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE PRECIP BECOMES ALL
RAIN BY 15-16Z. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY ON
THURSDAY...ONLY RISING SLOWLY DURING THE DAY...AND REMAINING WELL
BELOW NORMAL. WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20 AND CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS ON THURSDAY.

THE SYSTEM IS QUICK TO LIFT OUT BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW...BRINGING
AN END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY BACKED AND BRINGS DRIER AIR
TO THE REGION.
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#4 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Jan 17, 2007 3:08 pm

Hold the phone ...

KCHS (Charleston has freezing rain advisories out from 1 am until 10 am Thursday morning, and KGSP (Greenville) - just issued winter storm warnings for areas SOUTH of I-85 ...

KCAE (Columbia) will likely have to hoist some kind of winter weather advisory, likely to come in the next few hours ...

SF
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