Long Range GFS looking rather ominous........

[Dean4Storms]

If the GFS long range runs actually pan out it looks as if January will end with a bang. Some of the recent runs even show wintry precip. making it into the deep south along the Gulf Coast states and making it over to Florida come last week of this month.

What year was it in the early 70's when Florida recieved 2" snows and Georgia from Tifton northward got upwards of 8"? THis looks somewhat similiar.

[Lowpressure]

Around the 24th starting to look quite interesting for a good chunk of the Southeast and the Mid Atlantic, per the GFS. We will see.

[cajungal]

It does look interesting for the 24/25th. They only give a high for my area of 42 degrees with a 50% chance of rain. But, it will probably be even colder than that. Because usually the temps always end up being colder here than previously predicted.

[JenBayles]

Say it ain't so! It's gonna take me a month to recover my eyesight from THIS event. I can't take it any more! AAAAAHHHHH!!!!!

[Portastorm]

Say it ain't so! It's gonna take me a month to recover my eyesight from THIS event. I can't take it any more! AAAAAHHHHH!!!!!

I just took a look at the 12z GFS and yes indeed ... another winter weather event may be on the horizon for Texas this weekend. Amazing!

[HouTXmetro]

Probably nothing but cold air here in Houston.... I HATE WINTER

[TrekkerCC]

Say it ain't so! It's gonna take me a month to recover my eyesight from THIS event. I can't take it any more! AAAAAHHHHH!!!!!

I just took a look at the 12z GFS and yes indeed ... another winter weather event may be on the horizon for Texas this weekend. Amazing!

NWS FWD office is on board with this new event. Already, they are mentioning some wintry mix on Saturday and Sunday, through temperatures are forecast to only go below freezing during the overnight hours.

[Lowpressure]

I think this will be a lower temperature trend scenario as time goes on. For a change, there is a pretty good pool of colder air to support more winter weather. NWS Charlotte already shaving a few degrees here long range with the note "again" in the long range forecast, might be a cold trend.

[aggiecutter]

Portastorm, I got very little ice yesterday. Most of the precipitation had ended as temps fell below freezing. It just wasnt the right setup for this part of Texas. However, this weekend-early next week, I get my money in the bank Gulf of Mexico Low to form in the NW Gulf. This has the good potential to be a major winter storm for the southern plains and Texas. I was skeptical about this past weekends event. I'm feeling really bullish about the next one and the one to follow.

[gboudx]

aggiecutter, will the temps be there to support it? DFW has highs in the 40's this weekend. I know that can change, but just curious of your opinion.

[JonathanBelles]

i dont like the new GFS...all the cold is gone from florida.

[aggiecutter]

gboudx, I think the GFS number, like the last outbreak, will be underdone. Lows forming in the NW Gulf with cold air in place is the classic setup for winter weather in this part of the state. I just read Bastardi's column, and he thinks there will be a major winter storm in Texas this weekend-early next week north and west of a Presido to Texarkana line.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Aggiecutter,

What are the ensembles saying about long term cold.? Bastardi seems to think it's going to lock for awhile and this is just the begining.

[gboudx]

That's a large chunk of Texas he's putting under the gun. Time will tell, but I don't know how much I trust accuweather. Yesterday, one of their public reports mentioned that Rockwall had 1 inch of ice. Well, I live in Rockwall and I can tell you for sure we did not have 1 inch of ice. Not even close.

[gwood47]

i am new to this site but have thoroughly enjoyed reading the accurate predicitons. can someone tell me what the long range show for some possible snow in good old nashville tennessee. gw

[Portastorm]

Portastorm, I got very little ice yesterday. Most of the precipitation had ended as temps fell below freezing. It just wasnt the right setup for this part of Texas. However, this weekend-early next week, I get my money in the bank Gulf of Mexico Low to form in the NW Gulf. This has the good potential to be a major winter storm for the southern plains and Texas. I was skeptical about this past weekends event. I'm feeling really bullish about the next one and the one to follow.

Yes indeed aggiecutter ... those Gulf lows tend to sling a lot of moisture over the cold surface air and I recall NE Texas doing well in those situations. I think you're on to something.

[aggiecutter]

Portastorm, I just got a chance to really look at the 12z GFS, and to be honest, I just dont see it for this weekend. The middle of next week is when it looks like all you know what is going to break loose. That event is supported strongly by the Ensembles.

[aggiecutter]

As they would say in the NFL"Upon further review", the freezing line is awfully close to me on the 12z run. If the model underestimates the strenght of the air even just a little, I'll be in business, but this is the classic setup for NE Texas. That low is sitting in the sweet spot in the Gulf. Another thing that gives me hope is that fresh cold air is coming into the region friday night into saturday. This is starting to look very interesting.

12z GFS@120
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

[gboudx]

Looks like DFW is bisected by the freezing line too. Similar setup to what we had over the weekend where my area was hovering near or just above 32 with rain, and points to the NW were below 32 with freezing rain.

[Ptarmigan]

Hmmmmm. I am not surprised by this. Will keep an eye on it.