TX Winter Wx Threat # 8--- TX Ice Storm

[Stratosphere747]

Anyone have any ideas on what to really expect in regards to the Austin area, some stations are treating it as severe, others just seem to be wanting to hype it without much true information other than "ice, ice, maybe snow, ice" My main concern is that I live in an older complex where our transformer(s)/ power lines are potentially dangered by tree limbs and I'm very concerned as to what scenarios of ice accumulations we can possibly expect. Thank you.

Areas of Austin have been reporting freezing rain for most of the night. Along with this latest short term forecast, I'm sure when you wake up in the morning a good bit of the city will be shut down. May just escape power line/tree issues depending on how much ice does accumulate.

.NOW...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY...
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND EVEN SNOW...WILL PERSIST THROUGH 1 AM.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE
TO HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR ROADS...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES ARE CLOSED DUE TO ICE ACCUMULATIONS. WIND CHILLS
WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
HOWEVER...IF IT IS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY FOR YOU TO TRAVEL TONIGHT
OR TUESDAY...PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION AND BE PREPARED FOR DELAYS
AND RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO THE LOCAL NEWS
FOR UPDATES ON THIS DANGEROUS WINTER STORM.

[TexHorn06]

Thanks stratosphere, it's currently raining here in the UT campus area in Austin and is below freezing, but the roads are not iced over as of 20-30 min ago when I went outside. I've just decided to rough it out with a few beers and watching various message boards tonight, with school and my office being shut down tomorrow it's easy street for me tonight. Hell of a way to get my last semester at Texas started I'd say.

[Shoshana]

Our lights have started flickering in the last 20 min or so. That's *so* not a good sign! And we have underground utilities. I'm keeping my fingers crossed - we have lost power in the past in thunderstorms, but so far have been ok in every other situation - usually our neighborhood has lights when this whole part of town doesn't.

From the accident reports it sounds like all the bridges are iced. I know i-35 at 290 was closed for a while and parts of MoPac and 183.

[TexHorn06]

Shoshana, where are you in Austin? As I've said before I'm in the UT campus area (about 2 blocks away from campus) but our utilities are definately exposed as I can see our transformer from my window, I'm currently doing facility engineering so I've definately learned to have an eye for those type of things.

[Shoshana]

I'm in NE Austin almost in Pflugerville.

I've seen trees and transformers blow in ice storms. Very loud. But I don't *think* we'll have enough ice buildup for that. What we will have is trees and branches falling on power lines and bringing them down. Mostly in the older parts of town where there are alot of old trees and aboveground utilites.

Here it was drizzling for hours with the temp below freezing. I went out around 10pm and our driveway was wet but not frozen. I didn't try the street but could see that everything aboveground was iced - cars, trees, fences.

It's weird the way the mets from the different stations don't seem to agree on how much ice will accumulate.

I sure wish I'd gone out this afternoon tho - I'm already getting cabin fever

LOL

[TexHorn06]

You're preaching to the choir on the cabin fever, I was sent home early from work today. When I was younger I lived in WV and KY and I saw some good winter weather. However, most of the time I was there it was usually snow and not so much the ice storm we're having here right now. I agree on how it's weird that no one seems to be consistent on what to expect. I just walked outside and in the campus area, outside of my apt, the puddles were forming thin sheets of ice, however, nothing quite solid. Lucky thing is I have some friends withing a couple block walking radius I can run to and escape the trapped in the apartment feeling.

Also, whoever set up our power lines here set the transformer a matter of feet from where the tree overhang currently stands. I'm more worried about a surge from the branch reaching the transformer since the voltage drop over that short distance will be minimal after a short and could possibly send a surge large enough to blow the transformer. As it stands, unless something darn strong comes through in the next few hours we should be alright.

[TexHorn06]

We have a light/decent rain right now in the Austin metro area, but my street, just by the University of Texas campus, is still not iced over. The grass, however, has taken upon the crunchy texture that indicates it's at least mildly frozen. I do not know off hand how this will affect power lines, et al, however I can imagine if the grass has taken to the freeze than the trees are already starting to gather ice or are close to it with a further drop of temperature or a maintained state of the current temperature.

But this is the opinion of an engineer, I have zero idea how this correlates to anything meteorologically.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks good here this morning...no ice overnight...but with temperatures here around the 31-32 degree mark, I am going to have to watch closely throughout the day to see if precip. develops. Also, even if we warm above freezing today our wet bulb temps. will not. This means that through tomorrow afternoon there is probably no escape from wintry weather as anything that falls will be frozen.

My biggest fear right now though is that everyone goes off to work and school for a "normal" day and by lunch time a huge mess of precipitation develops over the area causing a horrible mess by this afternoon. Let's just hope that next round really does hold off until this evening for us all.

BTW: Anyone else noticing that precip. that is trying to develop near Matagorda bay? Looks threatening to say the least. Let's just hope it doesn't expand or move north any this morning.

[vbhoutex]

Was just watching the loops. Unfortunately it appears that the area to our Soutwest may be starting to make a move to the north. I hope not!!! EWG, you have the same fear I do-one little impulse to kink it North or Soouth and then we are in the mix. Going to work and watching it closely.

[Extremeweatherguy]

hmmm. this is interesting. I just realized we are under an Ice storm warning for this evening...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
448 AM CST TUE JAN 16 2007

...THREAT FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
CONTINUES ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TXZ200-213-226-227-235-236-161500-
/O.NEW.KHGX.IS.W.0002.070117T0000Z-070117T1500Z/
/O.CON.KHGX.WS.A.0002.000000T0000Z-070116T1500Z/
FORT BEND-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAY CITY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...EDNA...
EL CAMPO...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LIBERTY...MISSOURI CITY...
PALACIOS...PASADENA...PIERCE...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
SUGAR LAND...TOMBALL...WHARTON
448 AM CST TUE JAN 16 2007

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED AN
ICE STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM CST WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
9 AM CST THIS MORNING.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING AS
ONE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE MOST OF THE DAY TODAY... FALLING TO
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS
MAINLY NORTH OF A CLEVELAND TO SEALY LINE. THIS FREEZE LINE SHOULD
PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE STOPPING
NORTH OF A LIBERTY TO BAY CITY LINE. THIS LINE SHOULD MARK THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE MOST AT RISK TONIGHT AS ANY RAIN
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FREEZE ON CONTACT
WITH THE SURFACE.

INITIALLY...THE THREAT FOR ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
ELEVATED STRUCTURES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. TRAVEL WILL
BECOME HAZARDOUS AS A COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN MORE SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION TO THE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL...TREES AND POWER LINES WILL INCREASINGLY BE AT RISK OF
FALLING.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH MAY OCCUR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATED FORECASTS ON THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

[TexasStooge]

There has been some light snow falling in the southern half of North Texas. Only a few flakes have reached DFW, but none of them fell to the ground.

[Johnny]

Any updates from the mets? I have a big fat zero as far as ice is concerned. Looking at the radar, it looks like we are good to go.

[Yankeegirl]

Anyone heard from Jeff this morning? I havent any ice either here but I am sitting at 33.1... dropped from last nights steady temp of 34.7... lol... when I went to bed i took the wireless thermometer to bed with me, and right as I was shutting off the lights, the temp started to drop... lol...

[wxman57]

Everything still looks on schedule. No ice was expected the past 2 days, it's been this afternoon and tonight when Houston was at greatest risk for ice accumulations as the final disturbance kicks out of Mexico and west Texas.

That disturbance is causing some heavy snow in the mountains around the Big Bend area this morning. The disturbance is forecast to move off to the east late this morning. Precip should begin across the Houston area by early this afternoon, peak around late afternoon/early evening, then taper off after midnight.

Just as a thunderstorm will cool the area down from the 90s to the 70s in the summer, once the rain starts this afternoon it should cool our temperature down enough so that much of Houston will be below freezing. The drier air here this morning will help the evaporative cooling get temps below freezing this afternoon, increasing the risk for some freezing/frozen precipitation.

But I still don't think it'll be a major event for central and south Houston. Just some ice on trees and power lines for the most part, surface roads will probably remain fine. Some high overpasses may have problems.

Northwest and west of Houston is where the heavier precip will fall. Those areas could see 1/2 inch or more of freezing rain and sleet this afternoon through tonight. Columbus, Sealy, Bellville, Brenham.

[jeff]

Ice Storm Warning has been issued for all of SE TX except Galveston, Brazoria, and Chambers counties. Warning goes into effect at 600pm this evening.



Winter Storm Watch in effect for Liberty, Harris, Fort Bend, Wharton, Jackson, and Matagorda counties.



Discussion:



Short wave energy continues to stream across TX within highly active sub-tropical flow. Freezing line extends from near Liberty to IAH to Aldine to Katy then SW to Wharton. Upstream temps. to our NW are quite cold with 26 at Brenham and 28 at CLL, and with strong cold air advection in place, temps. will not warm much at all today.



Freezing rain has remained nearly stationary overnight from Del Rio to College Station to Huntsville. Icing and glazing has been reported throughout all of San Antonio and Austin ENE through Giddings to College Station. Numerous roads and bridges are ice covered and some are closed in our northwestern counties and then westward toward the Austin area.



Models and water vapor show next and possibly stronger disturbance will approach SE TX by early afternoon. Isentropic lift over the cold dome should increase from the SW with void area over the central counties filling in. Wet bulb temps are at or below freezing and as precip. begins to fall expect surface temps to fall a few more degrees pushing borderline area right now below freezing….hence the issuance of the Ice Storm Warning for the central counties.



Accumulation:



Ice accumulation of up to 1/10th of an inch has occurred over Brazos, Burleson, Grimes, Washington, and parts of Walker counties overnight. Additional freezing rain today and tonight can be expected to produce ice accumulations of 1/10 to ¼ of an inch on exposed surfaces such as trees, power lines, bridges, overpasses, and cars. Some locations in the ice storm warning area may receive up to ½ inch of icing. I am somewhat suspect of how much precip. will actually occur due to what has happen overnight..however one cannot ignore the potential but not have high expectation of where it will fall. An hour by hour watch seems most appropriate at this time.



Travel:



Travel throughout the metro area is good at this time due to a lack of overnight precipitation…however the onset of freezing or frozen precip. this afternoon will quickly result in icing of bridges and overpasses. Persons should continue to monitor precipitation trends during the day and be prepared to leave early if freezing rain or sleet begin to approach the area. Most area bridges, overpasses, and high connectors have been sanded or treated with a de-icing agent and some of the high connect overpasses are closed on and off the area tollways.



Road Conditions:



Brazos County:



Bryan: SH 21 is ice covered from Burleson Co to Madison Co line. Sanding operations are in progress.



SH 6: all of Brazos and Grimes Co: Ice on bridges and overpasses. Sanding operations in progress



Burleson County:



FM 50—ice covered

FM 1361—ice on bridges

FM 60—ice on bridges

SH 21—ice on bridges---patchy ice on road surface---sanding again



Grimes County:



SH 30: ice on bridges---TXDOT sanding

FM 1486: ice on bridge---TXDOT sanding

FM 1774: ice on bridges---TXDOT sanding

FM 3090: ice on bridges---sanded

SH 6 at Navasota River: heavy icing---TXDOT and county sanding

SH 6 at Navasota interchange: icing ---TXDOT sanding

SH 105 from Brazos River to Montgomery Co line: ice on bridges---TXDOT sanding entire stretch



Washington County:



SH 36 from Austin County: ice on bridges---TXDOT crews sanding

FM 1948—ice covered

US 290: ice on bridges---TXDOT crews sanding

SH 105 from US 290 to Brazos Co: ice on all bridges---Sanding all bridges.



Walker County:



I-45: ice on bridges—TXDOT sanding all bridges, expect delays

[Johnny]

Thanks for the update wxman57. How do you think the weather will play out up here towards Conroe? I work in Spring and am fixing to go in.

[PTrackerLA]

I'm starting to wonder if we might see some problems later today. Look at all the precip moving onshore: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... h&loop=yes. Our two of the local weatherbug sites show our temps falling into the 33-34 degree range since this light rain started and the dewpoints near 30 I'm afraid we will wet bulb to freezing later today. It's 33.2 degrees right down the road from me and there's alot of moisture coming!

[wxman57]

Thanks for the update wxman57. How do you think the weather will play out up here towards Conroe? I work in Spring and am fixing to go in.

You'll be fine at least until mid afternoon. Just keep an eye on the radar and outside for the onset of any precip. Once it starts, you'll still have a few hours, at least, before any icing of bridges/overpasses occurs.

[JenBayles]

I just found this forum last night and I'm absolutely engulfed in this whole situation. As an engineering student at UT, I'm directly seeing the effects of the psychrometrics and the air levels/altitudes. Thanks to all of yall for the information.

Yeah, we get a bit nuts at times like this!

[Portastorm]

Austin is definitely encrusted in ice this morning. Most secondary roads are glazed with ice and bridges/overpasses are in bad shape. Traffic is moving on the parts of I-35 that aren't bogged down by accidents. Same with Mopac. But that traffic is moving very, very slowly. Downtown roads appear to be mainly wet.

I second what Texhorn06 posted earlier after talking a walk around the yard. All vegetation is coated in ice and the grass makes that "crunchy" sound when you walk on it. Lots of icicles hanging down from the roof and surface objects which is kinda fun!

The ice hasn't been heavy enough to start bringing large limbs down but I could see where that might happen with another several hours of precip. At the moment here in my part of north Austin, there no precip is falling and air temp is 27 degrees.

BTW, I tried to kick the football this morning but slipped and fell on my backside ... and it had nothing to do with Lucy and everything to do with the ice!! I can't win for losing.