TX Winter WX Thread #7 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[TexasSam]

The front just passed Baytown (for the first time) about 20 Min. ago temp. dropped from 68 to 57 so far with light rain. I was up untill about 4am Friday night / Sat. morning and it was still 69 when I went to sleep, and when looked at the Temp. for the first time today I was shocked to see it was 73! So much so that I thought it was wrong and went outside.
In the time it took me to write this little bit down one more to 56.

[teal61]

Temp still steadily falling at my home west of Spring. Down to 44.6 a drop of 22.6 degrees in seven hours.


http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... KTXSPRIN14

[Tireman4]

45.1 in Humble.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Brenham already 2 degrees colder than their forecast low for tonight. I bet we see more of the same area-wide. Based on this, I believe the ice threat may begin earlier. It will be interesting to see what the NWS says in the morning.

[TexasSam]

*Tireman* How did you do in the marathon? If this was asked before forgive.

[WhiteShirt]

Brenham already 2 degrees colder than their forecast low for tonight. I bet we see more of the same area-wide. Based on this, I believe the ice threat may begin earlier. It will be interesting to see what the NWS says in the morning.

I watched the local 10pm news tonight. It appears all 3 Houston stations are onboard for the ice threat. It sounded like it's going to be bad here.

[Yankeegirl]

Temps still dropping.... 42!!!

[Portastorm]

Our temps are ever so slowly nearing freezing. It's 34 in my backyard with a pretty decent rain shower right now. Reports of some icing and freezing temps are north and west of Austin metro in the Hill Country.

I've been tracking our temp and it seems to be dropping about a degree an hour. Guess the real icing problems will begin closer to sunrise. As predicted.

[Starburst]

Update from your far south: Temp is still 58 degrees with moderate to heavy rainfall. Anyone know when the second batch of cold air will make it this far south?

[srainhoutx]

Update from your far south: Temp is still 58 degrees with moderate to heavy rainfall. Anyone know when the second batch of cold air will make it this far south?

sure seems to be spilling off the Edwards Plateu headed south

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Finally the Front has arrived! The NWS coop station in Robstown which is closer to me here in NW Corpus than the CC Airport's (NWS office) shows the front through and 55!

At 11 PM it showed 70, so that would be a nice 15 degree drop in an hour.

Bring on the cold!

[Yankeegirl]

41 here and i am going to bed.. going to be a long day tomorrow!!!

[southerngale]

The first front finally arrived here. About an hour ago, it was 70° - now it's 47°

...a 23° drop in about an hour! Also, because it came through after midnight, my high for Monday is 70° even if it only lasted about 1/2 hour. lol


Edit: It's 40° now (and breezy...gusting in the upper 20's) and has been steadily dropping the last few hours - a 30° drop in about 5 hours. The NWS forecasted low for me was 44°

[Extremeweatherguy]

Lows are already getting close to or are busting across the area tonight. Brenham is still hovering just above freezing (and below their forecasted low). I have the feeling that icing issues could begin earlier than first thought to our NW and by sunrise...many could be in the middle to upper 30s across the area (dropping further throughout the day).

Also, it looks like we are in this for the long haul! Check out the very wet, very slow latest radar loop:

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

This does NOT look good!

[TexasSam]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
419 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007

.DISCUSSION...
FRONT IS NOW OFF THE ENTIRE UPPER TX COAST (AND IT AIN`T COMING
BACK...I PROMISE). COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND EXPECT FALLING TEMPS ALL DAY. OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPS
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.
HOWEVER...NOTICING A FEW NON-NWS EQUIPMENT SITES ALREADY SHOWING
READINGS ALREADY BELOW FREEZING IN WASHINGTON AND MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES. LOCAL CRITERIA FOR A WINTER WX WARNING IS ICE ACCUM
>0.05". WITH ONGOING PRECIP AND CONTINUED FALLING TEMPS FEEL IT
IS BEST TO GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE THE WATCH TO AN ICE STORM WARNING.
ALSO ADDED THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
WATCH INTO THE WARNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THE BULK OF PRECIP
WILL BE MOVING ON TO THE E & NE OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME FOLKS POSSIBLY SEEING A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE PRECIP INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...NEXT DISTURBANCE(S) CAN BE CLEARLY BE
SEEN OFF BAJA AND SHOULD BE ARRIVING OVERNIGHT AND ON TUES. FROZEN
PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPS AT OR BELOW
FREEZING INLAND UNTIL WED MORNING. ISSUED A WATCH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SE TX EXCEPT THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY UPGRADE TO WARNINGS. WILL MENTION A WINTERY MIX IN THE
COASTAL COUNTIES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH AT THIS TIME.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE NAM12 INTO WED. IT BRINGS PRECIP CHANCES
DOWN NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING TUE NIGHT. GFS ON THE OTHERHAND
KEEPS OVERRUNNING PRECIP GOING ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES SO
GENERALLY COMPROMISED WITH 30-50 POPS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING.

AVERAGED THE MODEL LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WHEN THE FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AND CAME UP WITH 0.10 TO
0.5" THRU WED MORNING...WITH AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 SEEING THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS. ALSO...WANT TO MAKE IT CLEAR THAT WE DON`T EXPECT
PRECIP THE ENTIRE TIME. EVEN THOUGH CHANCES ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE
THEY`LL COME IN WAVES AS UPPER IMPULSES COME AND GO.

REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS CLOUDY...COOL AND DAMP WITH SW FLOW
CONTINUING ALOFT. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD THE WEEKEND. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 34 29 30 28 38 / 80 60 70 40 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 40 31 31 29 39 / 80 70 70 60 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 47 38 38 36 43 / 80 70 70 60 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON.

ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...GRIMES...
HOUSTON...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FORT BEND...HARRIS...LIBERTY...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47

[KatDaddy]

Well Well the front is past League City (42F) and the Winter weather threat very real. Looks ok to drive into downtown so far this morning but will no doubt leave early.

If temps continue to slide downward all day freezing temps I would expect freezing temps around 3PM if not a little earlier across Harris County.

[Diva]

So, if I'm reading things correctly, the threat isn't as strong in the Golden Triangle (BMT/PA/Orange) for heavy ice accumulations, correct?

[ROCK]

Well Well the front is past League City (42F) and the Winter weather threat very real. Looks ok to drive into downtown so far this morning but will no doubt leave early.

If temps continue to slide downward all day freezing temps I would expect freezing temps around 3PM if not a little earlier across Harris County.

yeah I was thinking along that time frame also. Its going to be nasty in the am. Working from home tomorrow thank goodness...

[greg_kfdm_tv]

So, if I'm reading things correctly, the threat isn't as strong in the Golden Triangle (BMT/PA/Orange) for heavy ice accumulations, correct?

That's correct. Temperatures will continue to fall to near or just below freezing by daybreak Tuesday with readings holding near freezing during the day tomorrow.

Periods of mostly light rain will persist into Tuesday night. However, any accumulations of ice should stay less than 1/4 of an inch.

By comparsion, the 1997 ice storm produced up to one inch of ice in Jefferson and Orange Counties.

[jeff]

Ice Storm Warnings posted for SE TX

Winter Storm Watches issued for metro Houston

Update will be out shortly...looks nasty.