TX Winter WX Thread #7 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[aggiecutter]

gboudx, it would take a while for the dewpoints to drop to 26 or below and the temp to follow. that is assuming they(the NWS) are correct.

It is currently snowing in Idabel,Oklahoma, which is only 35 miles NW of Texarkana.

Current Conditions in Idabel
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... K&site=SHV

[ETXHAMXYL]

FXUS64 KFWD 150037 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
630 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

FXUS64 KFWD 150037 AAB
AFDFWD

UPDATE...
601 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007
HAVE DECIDED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST TO CHANGE FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN
FOR THIS EVENING FROM GATESVILLE AND TEMPLE NORTHEAST TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS AND ATHENS. DO NOT THINK THIS AREA WILL REACH FREEZING OR
BELOW BY MIDNIGHT.

ALSO...IT/S LOOKING MORE LIKE THE MAIN EVENT ACROSS THE ICE STORM
WARNING AREA WILL BE THIS EVENING THROUGH 300 AM. SOME LINGERING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION (SLEET) IS EXPECTED AFTERWARDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTENROON. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA EARLY MONDAY.

THIS ALL MEANS THAT THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SAY THE
LEAST ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE METROPLEX
AND ALL AREAS NORTHWEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO CANTON LINE. EVEN A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ICE COULD SHUTDOWN I-20 IN THE RANGER HILL
AREA WEST OF DFW. 75

LOOKS LIKE A NON EVENT>>>BUT THE RAIN IS MUCH NEEDED> JUST WANTED SOME WINTER WITH IT

[double D]

Hmmmm....the temperature in Fredericksburg has dropped 5 degrees to 34 and the winds are gusting to 18mph. Could the leading edge already be moving in? If so that is ahead of schedule.

[Portastorm]

Hmmmm....the temperature in Fredericksburg has dropped 5 degrees to 34 and the winds are gusting to 18mph. Could the leading edge already be moving in? If so that is ahead of schedule.

I don't know double D. I was just checking the obs at Amarillo, Lubbock, and Abilene. Amarillo and Lubbock definitely have experienced dew points dropping several degrees with a slight increase in wind velocity and a direction more out of the northwest. Abilene, however, has calm winds and a steady temp and dewpoint so it hasn't reached there yet.

If y'all are getting some of that air, perhaps it is coming down more on a north-to-south vector??

UPDATE: I also notice that Mineral Wells' dewpoint has dropped 2 degrees and winds shifting to the northwest. Hmmm ....

[Yankeegirl]

I wonder if and when the houston area is going to post some kind of winter weather advisory?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Unfortunatley for us, I think this may wind up being an event where areas in SE Texas see worse weather (icing) than those in the north Texas (Dallas) area. We will see what actually happens, but at this point I fear that may be the case.

Hopefully I am wrong.

BTW: After rising to 69-degrees today, I am back down into the upper 40s/lower 50s this evening (and dropping). Tomorrow looks on track for my area to see temps. falling through the 40s and 30s all day due to the 2nd surge arriving after sunrise.

[aggiecutter]

The folk at Idabel just changed the snow to light rain. I figured that was a mistake.

[Yankeegirl]

I am sitting at 51 here on the west side...

[aggiecutter]

The winds in Denton are starting to pick up and the dewpoint has dropped a couple degrees over the past hour. It seems as though this whole event just isnt meant to be, atleast on a large scale. As temps fall below freezing, the precip seems to be pulling out.

[gboudx]

aggiecutter, didn't you post that this is just 1 of a few more times we might have a shot at some wintry precip? When do you think we'll have another chance?

[Portastorm]

Yup, the "surge" is on the move ...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
800 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

.UPDATE...
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH RIDGES
SOUTHWARD. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO REFLECT INCREASED
WINDS.

[aggiecutter]

The folks in Shreveport seem very sure we are going to get some freezing rain tonight and tomorrow. Here is the 8:00 o'clock weather summary for the area. I will remain skeptical until I see it.

Shreveport Weather Summary at 8:00pm:

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHDOWN...ATLANTA...BOSSIER CITY...
CARTHAGE...CENTER...DAINGERFIELD...DE QUEEN...EL DORADO...GILMER...
HENDERSON...HOMER...HOPE...JEFFERSON...LEWISVILLE...LONGVIEW...
LUFKIN...MAGNOLIA...MANSFIELD...MARSHALL...MINDEN...NACOGDOCHES...
NASHVILLE...NEW BOSTON...PRESCOTT...RUSK...SAN AUGUSTINE...
SHREVEPORT...TEXARKANA...TYLER
755 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

.NOW...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM...
SHREVEPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...TO THE WEST OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR...THROUGH
RINGGOLD LOUISIANA...TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MILES AN HOUR. THROUGH LATE EVENING
OF SUNDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY ACCUMULATE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT...LEADING
TO THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR. MOTORISTS SHOULD
TRAVEL WITH EXTREME CAUTION OVER BRIDGES AND ELEVATED ROADWAYS AS
SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

[aggiecutter]

gboudx, I can't be specific, but this is the type of pattern where the southern plains gets way above normal amounts of snow and ice. This is not a one and out. If you were to draw a line from Dallas to Atlanta, Ga and 200 miles to the north, 100 miles to the south of that line. Those are the areas that will get more than their share of winter weather. This is what happened in 78, and this pattern is very reminiscent of that one. During the 78 winter, Texarkana had nine winter events in January and February combined. 4 of them were major and the rest were moderate to significant.

[wxman57]

gboudx, I can't be specific, but this is the type of pattern where the southern plains gets way above normal amounts of snow and ice. This is not a one and out. If you were to draw a line from Dallas to Atlanta, Ga and 200 miles to the north, 100 miles to the south of that line. Those are the areas that will get more than their share of winter weather. This is what happened in 78, and this pattern is very reminiscent of that one. During the 78 winter, Texarkana had nine winter events in January and February combined. 4 of them were major and the rest were moderate to significant.

You might want to rethink that line, aggiecutter. Take a look at the moisture levels between northern MS and northern GA. No moisture once the air drops below freezing tomorrow night. The only area with moisture (that's below freezing) tomorrow night and Tuesday will be Texas. The wave in the Gulf won't be tracking across the southeast U.S., so no ice from LA to GA.

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
834 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007


.DISCUSSION...
FRONT HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING SOUTH...AGAIN...THIS EVENING AND AT
8PM WAS JUST SOUTH OF A LIVINGSTON...DOWNTOWN HOUSTON...EDNA LINE.
BY MIDNIGHT IT SHOULD HAVE CLEARED THE COAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REACH MID 30S CROCKETT-LAKE SOMERVILLE... NEAR 40
HOUSTON AREA TO BAY CITY AND MID 40S ON THE COAST. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING BUT NOTHING LIKE LAST NIGHT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE CAP IN THE MID LEVELS AND UPPER FLOW
MORE PARALLEL THE FRONT AND NOT AS STRONG. PUSH OF COLDER AIR NOW
MAKING HEADWAY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST TEXAS MONDAY AS UPPER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN
WEST TEXAS EXITS THE STATE TO THE NORTHEAST. IN SPITE OF
COMPLEXITY OF SCENARIO...CURRENT GRIDS REFLECT ONGOING WEATHER AND NO
CHANGES ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

[teal61]

Temperatures have continues a steady fall here at my house in Spring. They have dropped around 16 degress in about 4 and 1/2 hours.



http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... KTXSPRIN14

[aggiecutter]

wxman57, I wasn't talking about tomorrow or tomorrow night. goubdx was asking me a question about the long term pattern, not a specific instance such as tomorrow night. That is the reason I was referencing 1978. I was comparing this pattern long term to that one.

[TexasStooge]

Temperatures at DFW have now dropped to the freezing mark with some freezing rain dropping. Technically, the precip is still wet, but overnight, the areas are gonna be frozen over.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
837 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-150600-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
837 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

.NOW...
WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE...FREEZING RAIN AND SHOWERS OF SLEET
WILL CONTINUE NORTHWEST OF A BONHAM...CLEBURNE...GOLDTHWAITE LINE
THROUGH 1 AM. ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE...AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
FREEZING. ALSO WITHIN THIS AREA....NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20 MPH WHICH
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 20S.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS...AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
AND SOME DRIZZLE WILL THROUGH 1 AM. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL SLOWLY AND THE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO FREEZE ALONG A
GOLDTHWAITE...WAXAHACHIE....PARIS LINE SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

AN ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTHWEST OF A LAMPASAS...
CLEBURNE...BONHAM LINE TONIGHT...AND A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE THROUGH MONDAY.

_____________________________________________________________

As far as closings/delays in North Texas are concerned, here's the latest update:

Public Schools

Aledo ISD: Opening at 10:00 AM. Bus delayed 2 hours.

Bryson ISD: Closed.

Cleburne ISD: Closed.

Cranfills Gap ISD: Opening at 11 AM.

Godley ISD: Opening at 10:00 AM.

Valley View ISD: Opening at 11:00 AM.

Private Schools

Al-Hedayah Academy: Closed.

Merrywood Private School: Closed.

Westwood Montessori: Closed.

Universities/Colleges

Collin County Community College: MLK Breakfast canceled.

Preschools

Dallas First Presbyterian Preschool: Opening at 10:00 AM.

Fort Worth Museum Preschool: Closed.

Government

Dallas Zoo: Opening at 12 noon.

Naval Air Station Joint Reserve Base: Essential personnel only report to work.

Church

Forest Hills Church of Christ: Services canceled.

Other

Greater Ft. Worth MLK holiday Comm.: Canceled.

SOURCE: WFAA.com

[gboudx]

Thanks aggiecutter.

[wall_cloud]

yes, the temp should drop to the dewpoint with the onset of precip, or very close, especially since the air mass should be deeper.

the temperature doesn't drop to the dewpoint (at least the dewpoint prior to precipitation). It generally follows the 1/3 Rule. Your dewpoint will go up faster than your temperature will drop. If you have a temp of 40 and a dewpoint of 25...your wet bulb temperature will be in the neighborhood of 35 degrees or so. Our course, this doesn't take advection into account...just the wet-bulbing process. Hope this helps.[/url]