TX Winter WX Thread #7 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[Furious George]

Yes, temps are somewhat on the rise in SE Texas and most locations are above there project temp at this time. But it's not like this secondary surge is going to need to battle with temps in the 70's. So essentially, it won't modify to the point where this will be an all rain event.

However, I am slightly more optimistic that we may eek out a few hours on Tuesday above freezing to help with the conditions in Houston, but I wouldn't count on it.

[TrekkerCC]

We still have no icing going on over here cheezy. Still sitting at 32 with rain falling, but I'm observing no freezing, which I don't understand. I guess it's not really 32 now is it?

I looked this up water melts at 32, freezes below 32. I found it on a homework help site. makes sense b/c it is 32.7 here and just rain.

Haha, guess we'll see. When I made that post it was actually 32.7. Now it's 32.3, still raining. 0.4 more drop and we'll test that homework site.

If the secondary surge does get here on schedule with temperatures rapidly or slowly dropping into the twenties, any rain today will become skating rings tonight.

[Extremeweatherguy]

We still have no icing going on over here cheezy. Still sitting at 32 with rain falling, but I'm observing no freezing, which I don't understand. I guess it's not really 32 now is it?

I looked this up water melts at 32, freezes below 32. I found it on a homework help site. makes sense b/c it is 32.7 here and just rain.

Haha, guess we'll see. When I made that post it was actually 32.7. Now it's 32.3, still raining. 0.4 more drop and we'll test that homework site.

If the secondary surge does get here on schedule with temperatures rapidly or slowly dropping into the twenties, any rain today will become skating rings tonight.

yes, that is what your NWS is thinking. They have downtown Dallas into the middle 20s tonight.

[ROCK]

talk about a temp difference the front is sitting right over me. 30 minutes ago I was 56F now I am up to 70F......wierd....

[aggiecutter]

All I'm asking is for someone to point out the secondary surge on a weather map, where ever it is in the US.

[Furious George]

All I'm asking is for someone to point out the secondary surge on a weather map, where ever it is in the US.

I don't think the line is as well defined as a conventional cold front, with its obvious boundaries between winds from the South and winds from the North.

You can somewhat see that secondary surge from the Dewpoints, with the lower values being behind the secondary surge, so if anyone had a dewpoint map, that would give an idea.

[Toady1]

I know one thing ... if this event doesn't verify, my inner circle of friends and family will never listen to me again when it comes to weather!

Boy you aint kidin'....if it doesnt pan out like predicted I bet several folks on this board including myself will have to prepare nice serving of crow. Actually, no joke... there is a website called eatcrow.com it provides several decent recipes for crow.

[ROCK]

All I'm asking is for someone to point out the secondary surge on a weather map, where ever it is in the US.

Just by the current obs.....

a lot of cold air in Neb right now and N OK.....some serious cold farther north.....

http://stormeyes.org/maps/txmesonet.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

All I'm asking is for someone to point out the secondary surge on a weather map, where ever it is in the US.

It is up in the North and NW areas of the country. Once that strong low in the SW moves off east, it will pull it rapidly southward.

current temps: http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag226.html

surface map: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfcnps.gif

At least that is what I think is expected to happen (as it would make the most sense). I would really appreciate it if a pro met could back this up though.

[Air Force Met]

All I'm asking is for someone to point out the secondary surge on a weather map, where ever it is in the US.

It's not another front, per say. If you look at the isotherms...they are pretty evenly distributed from Houston to the Canadian border.

What is happening is a surge in the High pressure to our north. The center is currently over the interior Rockies & Sask. Over the next two days, it rockets south and then SE...so that by Monday night...the 500mb flow which has been from the SW over the plains...shifts to the NW...and it allows this chunk of the high to move SEward. Pressures that are 30.10 right now will be 30.50 in 2 days over the dallas area...and 30.65 by Tuesday night.

So...with the HIGH moving in like that...so does the cold air.

Hope this helps.

[aggiecutter]

George, I asked that question last night, concerning a wind shift line and lower dew points. I got no answer. The Dew Points in northern and central Oklahoma are in the upper teens and have been for the past several days. The weather discussion out of Shreveport suggested that the upper trough would eject out later today forcing a secondary surge out of southern Oklahoma southward. If that is the case, then the secondary surge will be nothing more than a wind shift line with lower dew points, which would cause the temperatures to drop with the onset of precipitation. That is the only plausible explanation I can come up with. Because the front that hasnt even gone through Denver yet wont be at the Red River tonight. That is not going to happen.

Current Dew Points:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/dewpoint.gif

[double D]

Well the temperature in Amarillo keeps dropping, they are not at 16 with a good north wind blowing. Maybe this is the air the NWS is talking about? This has been one crazy week.

[KatDaddy]

Its interesting the front has made all the way to Matagorda Bay. Bay City, Port Lavaca, Victoria, and Wharton are behind the front. Its currently 48F in Wharton

[Extremeweatherguy]

thanks AFM for explaining that for us. That should help clear this issue up for all of us.

[aggiecutter]

AFM, let me ask you a couple questions. 1st.. When will, in your opinion, the Colder temperatures start filtering into the south-central and eastern part of the state from the secondary surge. 2.. Wouldn't a northwestern flow a loft shut off the moisture train.

[JenBayles]

Cool - and honest to God discussion this morning from HGX. I like it! Would love to see more like this that offer a real explanation of what they're thinking:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
613 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

...WINTER STORM CONDITIONS AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY EARLY IN THE
WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
PROBLEM 1: IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT TRAINING FLOODING RAINS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX IS NOW LIFTING NE OUT OF THE AREA.
SUSPECT WE`LL GET SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS MORNING
BEFORE OTHER IMPULSES SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THEY`LL MOVE ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS AGAIN AND THE THREAT OF TRAINING HEAVY RAINS WILL AGAIN
CONTINUE CONSIDERING THE ABSURD PW VALUES WE`RE SEEING. FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THOSE AREAS. READ THE ALREADY ISSUED
FLOOD WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL INFO.

PROBLEM 2: FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM MATAGORDA BAY TO JUST SOUTH OF
HOBBY AIRPORT TO SOUTH OF LIBERTY. BEST GUESTIMATE IS THAT IT`LL
CONTINUE TO INCH...AND I MEAN INCH...SOUTHWARD THRU THE DAY AND
OFF THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST SOMETIME DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY. FCSTED HIGH TEMPS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
TODAY.

PROBLEM 3: ONE OF THE VERY FEW TIMES I HOPE A FORECAST BUSTS...BUT
IT APPEARS SE TX COULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT ICE PROBLEMS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND
DISTURBANCES PROLONG THE PRECIPITATION INTO MIDWEEK. THREAT
APPEARS TO BEGIN LATE MON AFTN ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS
TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING. THEN AS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FALLS
BELOW FREEZING MON NT...THREAT EXPANDS TO ALMOST ALL OF SE TX
EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. POSSIBLE CONTINUATION OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPS THRU THE DAY TUE...TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING WILL MAKE
MATTERS SUBSTANTIALLY WORSE WITH TIME. ALREADY ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR NRN AREAS. FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE THESE WILL
EVENTUALLY BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD WITH TIME...AND UPGRADED TO
WARNINGS SHOULD CONDITIONS BECOME IMMINENT. SEE THE ALREADY ISSUED
WINTER STORM WATCH AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MORE NITTY
GRITTY DETAILS.

PROBLEM 4: SW FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO HANG ON ALL WEEK. DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MAY KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK CLOUDY
COOL AND WET. ANOTHER COLD FRONT POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND. BUMPED THE
POPS UP A LITTLE BUT MAINLY FOCUSED ON PERIODS BETWEEN NOW AND
WED.

PROBLEM 5: I`M GETTING BLISTERS ON MY FINGERS FROM SO MUCH TYPING
IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. HATS OFF AND MUCH RESPECT TO YOU
SECRETARIES AND ADMINISTRATIVE ASSISTANTS OUT THERE 47

&&

.442 AM MARINE...
STILL WARY OF MODELS WHICH DELAY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. WILL SEE
IF THIS PANS OUT. HAVE KEPT THE SCEC FOR THE 20-6ONM WATERS AS THE
LONG SELY FETCH PERSISTS THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...KEEPING THE WAVES
ELEVATED. 41

&&

.442 AM AVIATION...
WITH THE BULK OF THE PCPN ALREADY MOVING OUT...AND THE NEXT SHORT-
WAVE NOT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAFS. FRONTAL MOVEMENT REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AS IT HAS BEEN SLOW
(BUT STILL FASTER THAN THE MODELS). WILL LIKELY GO WITH A NORTHER-
LY DIRECTION FOR ALL SITES BY THIS AFTN. THUS REMAINS THE PROBLEMS
OF SEAFOG AT GLS AND THE START OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN AREAWIDE.
EXTRAPOLATING FROM WV IMAGERY...WILL BEGIN THE MENTION OF VCTS FOR
ALL SITES AROUND 17Z...THEN A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTN
TIME PERIOD. WE MAY ALSO SEE AN INCREASE OF NLY WIND SPEEDS DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THIS NEXT PACKAGE AND MAYBE PERHAPS THE MENTION
OF SOME FROZEN PRECIP FOR THE NRN AIRPORTS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 41 34 34 26 30 / 80 80 80 70 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 53 40 40 28 31 / 70 70 80 70 70
GALVESTON (GLS) 69 46 46 36 36 / 60 60 80 70 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...
GRIMES...HOUSTON...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN
JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...
HOUSTON...MADISON...TRINITY...WALKER...WASHINGTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47

[Toady1]

All I'm asking is for someone to point out the secondary surge on a weather map, where ever it is in the US.

I don't think the line is as well defined as a conventional cold front, with its obvious boundaries between winds from the South and winds from the North.

You can somewhat see that secondary surge from the Dewpoints, with the lower values being behind the secondary surge, so if anyone had a dewpoint map, that would give an idea.

Just observed that amarillo is 16, dp of 12, winds N at 14 with light freezing mist....Dalhart is 12, dp of 9, winds NNE at 12 with light snow and mist. maybe the line is somewhere in between. ???

[KatDaddy]

Newer update:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1008 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

WINTER STORM CONDITIONS AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY STARTING ON MONDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES MADE ON THE MORNING UPDATE. WE DID PUT OUT
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA...BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS DUE TO NUMEROUS REPORTS OF VISIBILITIES
AT 1/4 MILE OR LESS. WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THIS NPW AFTER NOON. THE
SHALLOW COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE UPPER
COAST WITH THE BOUNDARY PROBABLY EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF CORRIGAN
TO AROUND LIBERTY TO LEAGUE CITY TO BETWEEN ANGLETON AND BAY CITY AND
THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND MATAGORDA BAY. MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE PERFORMING POORLY (AND THAT`S PUTTING IT NICELY!) WITH THE FRONTAL
POSITION AND FUTURE MOVEMENT. 12Z RUNS IN SO FAR STILL HAVE THE FRONT
MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH TODAY WITH IAH WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S ON
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN! CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THE FRONT MOVING ALL THE WAY OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AND STAYING
OFFSHORE AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THIS THINKING. COLDER AIR THAT
WILL CREATE OUR FROZEN PRECIP EVENT WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER TONIGHT. READINGS SHOULD
GET COLD ENOUGH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY FOR THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT
TO BEGIN. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS OUT FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL EVALUATE EVERYTHING THIS AFTERNOON AND MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS (MAYBE BEGINNING THE WATCH A LITTLE EARLIER?) IF NEEDED.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO CLOSE TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN FELL LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
NO RAINS FALLING RIGHT NOW...ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS ALREADY
WET GROUNDS THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LEAD TO FLOODING.

[Portastorm]

thanks AFM for explaining that for us. That should help clear this issue up for all of us.

I guess. I'm not one to question AFM, except for his attachment to a certain university in Texas.

Meanwhile, I'll feel more comfortable about this "Ice Storm 2007" forecast when I see this alleged "surge" rolling down into God's country.

[Air Force Met]

AFM, let me ask you a couple questions. 1st.. When will, in your opinion, the Colder temperatures start filtering into the south-central and eastern part of the state from the secondary surge. 2.. Wouldn't a northwestern flow a loft shut off the moisture train.

1) Not until later Monday...

2)...No...because the flow aloft is stil SW over TX...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif