TX Winter WX Thread #7 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[double D]

At this point ... and maybe my question is best posed to Jeff, AFM, Wxman57, or wall_cloud ... how can NWS forecast offices reference a colder surge of air moving down south later today if they have literally thrown out most, if not all, model guidance? The model runs I looked at don't necessarily show it occuring today.

In Austin, we're going to need that surge if we ever see any wintry precip. Otherwise, temps are firmly in the mid 30s and the skeptic in me is starting to wonder if this is going to be yet another example of a winter event being advertised but never verified.

I started having my doubts last night when I saw Amarillo's temps rising to 20 degrees during the evening hours....They have since dropped to 17 but that was above the predicted low of 14. The temp. actually went up a degree in Frederiksburg last night too.

I know aggiecutter pointed out cold temps. in Canada but don't know if that is the reinforcing shot or not. I guess we wait and see Porta.

[Portastorm]

So nobody can find the next surge of Arctic air? I've read where NWS offices said it was coming through either late tonight or Monday and just read where Jeff said, "Secondary arctic surge moving through N TX will reach SE TX Monday."

{rest deleted}

Yes SG, we have read the same thing. Question is ... where is that logic coming from? Which model? Which observed development? I've run 24-hr temp loops for the south central US and I just don't see it.

[TrekkerCC]

So nobody can find the next surge of Arctic air? I've read where NWS offices said it was coming through either late tonight or Monday and just read where Jeff said, "Secondary arctic surge moving through N TX will reach SE TX Monday."

It is not here yet. It may arrive by tonight. This could have big implications down south.

[gboudx]

Got a couple comments of this next surge from Norman and DFW NWS:

Norman

REINFORCING SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL SURGE IN TONIGHT AND MONDAY
BEHIND THIS LEADING SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BRISK NORTHERLY
WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY...WHICH WILL ONLY COMPOUND THE
PROBLEM OF ICE COVERED TREES AND POWER LINES.

DFW

THE FREEZE LINE WILL ALSO NOT MOVE
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY BUT A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR TONIGHT WILL
PUSH IT INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY MORNING

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well if that is what they are saying in Norman then I bet the cold surge IS what is up in the northern U.S. and Canada. May be it is expected to rapidly move south and reach us all by tonight/tomororw?

It is certainly very cold up there: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/ustemp.gif
^^-24 in parts of northern ND!?! ^^

And there are two highs to our north as well: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfcnps.gif

I have seen these airmasses shoot south in quick periods before (especially when they are just "re-inforcements", so I guess the same should happen this time.

[Toady1]

Can anyone tell me why its 30 degrees and just raining?

The column of air through which the rain is falling is not cold enough to change water droplet to ice (i.e. sleet) or crystalize (i.e. snow). Remember, we've all been talking about how SHALLOW the layer of cold air is above the surface. Should that colder column of air deepen ... then you might see something besides rain.

Yeah.....last night around midnight I looked at current conditions in amarillo and it was 24 degrees with drizzle...no sleet or snow. obviously the colder deaper air was not there at that time. hmmmm.....now what am I gonna do with all this firewood and canned products??

[double D]

the temperature in Denver rose almost 10 degrees since last night, but are expecting it to drop again during the day with a secondary surge of colder air.

So if the colder air is expected to come in later on tonight for places up north then we shouldn't see it until tomorrow afternoon. Right?

[southerngale]

From a local met:

The front will likely continue to move very slowly to the southeast into this evening before moving more quickly to the southeast tonight as a secondary surge of arctic air along the Red River arrives. Therefore, the main cooling will begin late this evening and tonight.

[KatDaddy]

The secondary surge is looking to be a bust for SE TX. The air is to shallow for a push southward. If Dallas had temps in the mid 20s and Austin setting at low 30s I would have more concern.

[Johnny]

I have risen from 43 at day break to 47 as of now here in Conroe. I was not expecting a temperature rise at all after the frontal passage but rather to continue to drop....not happening. Also, the secondary surge of arctic air looks to be delayed from previous forecasts so IF we even get ice, it will be delayed. This doesn't look as dangerous as previously thought IMO....which isn't worth much at this point.

[Portastorm]

I know one thing ... if this event doesn't verify, my inner circle of friends and family will never listen to me again when it comes to weather!

[gboudx]

Porta, just blame it on the internet.

[Furious George]

One of my main concerns was the secondary surge arriving faster than anticipated and starting the freezing rain setup late Monday afternoon, before everyone leaves work in Houston. Fortunately, that looks extremely unlikely at this point. It still appears to be game on for Tuesday.

[Toady1]

I have risen from 43 at day break to 47 as of now here in Conroe. I was not expecting a temperature rise at all after the frontal passage but rather to continue to drop....not happening. Also, the secondary surge of arctic air looks to be delayed from previous forecasts so IF we even get ice, it will be delayed. This doesn't look as dangerous as previously thought IMO....which isn't worth much at this point.

I'll stand down a bit, but since this is Texas....and the air is partially polar in nature...I'll wait till thursday to break out the burmuda shorts.

[Shoshana]

No longer can we say "geez, people sure are going to be surprised by this storm," at least in the Austin area. By last night, it was the talk of the town ... probably enhanced by the media's non-stop coverage yesterday of our flooding and constant mention of "ice on the way."

The HEB in my neighborhood last night was cleaned out of staples like bread, milk, etc. It was kinda funny. One of the grocery's employees told my wife "everyone acted like it was 9/11 or something."

Meanwhile, we're sitting at 35 degrees in my part of north Austin. It won't take much to tip us into the balance of freezing surface temps ... but then again, it's going to take another surge of arctic air to do that. We shall see.

Yeah, I thought last night would get a little colder. And I specifically avoid HEB last night be cause of that. I figure i'd wait till it started then ride my atv to HEB. But for now i have my basic staples....firewood and beer.

I drove by 2 HEBs yesterday while I was running errands. They were both packed. Meanwhile, the Walmart near one of the HEBs (Parmer) wasn't even as busy as usual on a Saturday. So, I got what i needed at Wallyworld.

Looks like everyone but the people in Brownsville - McAllen are going to be hit with this nasty stuff.

[Tamora]

We still have no icing going on over here cheezy. Still sitting at 32 with rain falling, but I'm observing no freezing, which I don't understand. I guess it's not really 32 now is it?

I looked this up water melts at 32, freezes below 32. I found it on a homework help site. makes sense b/c it is 32.7 here and just rain.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The secondary surge is looking to be a bust for SE TX. The air is to shallow for a push southward. If Dallas had temps in the mid 20s and Austin setting at low 30s I would have more concern.

the secondary surge shouldn't be here until sometime tomorrow. I don't know how it can be called a bust until it doesn't arrive then. For now, I think we should all still be in preparation mode.

Just remember..At this point EVERY single pro met is calling for the secondary surge and the colder air to follow. They all must be seeing something, because I doubt these trained professionals would be calling for the colder air if it didn't exist.

[gboudx]

We still have no icing going on over here cheezy. Still sitting at 32 with rain falling, but I'm observing no freezing, which I don't understand. I guess it's not really 32 now is it?

I looked this up water melts at 32, freezes below 32. I found it on a homework help site. makes sense b/c it is 32.7 here and just rain.

Haha, guess we'll see. When I made that post it was actually 32.7. Now it's 32.3, still raining. 0.4 more drop and we'll test that homework site.

[Portastorm]

The secondary surge is looking to be a bust for SE TX. The air is to shallow for a push southward. If Dallas had temps in the mid 20s and Austin setting at low 30s I would have more concern.

the secondary surge shouldn't be here until sometime tomorrow. I don't know how it can be called a bust until it doesn't arrive then. For now, I think we should all still be in preparation mode.

Just remember..At this point EVERY single pro met is calling for the secondary surge and the colder air to follow. They all must be seeing something, because I doubt these trained professionals would be calling for the colder air if it didn't exist.

Yeah ... well ... outside of a few savvy NWS offices (Amarillo, Lubbock) ... their track record hasn't exactly been good in the last 3-5 days.

I've read what Jeff Lindner said and I do respect his word ... but I'll feel better when AFM or Wxman57 or wall_cloud gets on here and explains this alleged surge coming down.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have risen from 43 at day break to 47 as of now here in Conroe. I was not expecting a temperature rise at all after the frontal passage but rather to continue to drop....not happening. Also, the secondary surge of arctic air looks to be delayed from previous forecasts so IF we even get ice, it will be delayed. This doesn't look as dangerous as previously thought IMO....which isn't worth much at this point.

I am pretty sure most of the temp. rises this morning are due to the fog. With the dewpoints rising due to more moisture, the temperatures have done the same. Once the dewpoints drop again though, the temperatures should follow.

If you click on the stations on this webpage you can see how related the temps/dewpoints have been this morning: http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps ... &wmo=99999