TX Winter WX Thread #7 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[cheezyWXguy]

Im down at I think its 31.6...and it looks like ill be seeing my first REAL ice shower (the rest were rain)

[Toady1]

No longer can we say "geez, people sure are going to be surprised by this storm," at least in the Austin area. By last night, it was the talk of the town ... probably enhanced by the media's non-stop coverage yesterday of our flooding and constant mention of "ice on the way."

The HEB in my neighborhood last night was cleaned out of staples like bread, milk, etc. It was kinda funny. One of the grocery's employees told my wife "everyone acted like it was 9/11 or something."

Meanwhile, we're sitting at 35 degrees in my part of north Austin. It won't take much to tip us into the balance of freezing surface temps ... but then again, it's going to take another surge of arctic air to do that. We shall see.

Yeah, I thought last night would get a little colder. And I specifically avoid HEB last night be cause of that. I figure i'd wait till it started then ride my atv to HEB. But for now i have my basic staples....firewood and beer.

[Portastorm]

No longer can we say "geez, people sure are going to be surprised by this storm," at least in the Austin area. By last night, it was the talk of the town ... probably enhanced by the media's non-stop coverage yesterday of our flooding and constant mention of "ice on the way."

The HEB in my neighborhood last night was cleaned out of staples like bread, milk, etc. It was kinda funny. One of the grocery's employees told my wife "everyone acted like it was 9/11 or something."

Meanwhile, we're sitting at 35 degrees in my part of north Austin. It won't take much to tip us into the balance of freezing surface temps ... but then again, it's going to take another surge of arctic air to do that. We shall see.

Yeah, I thought last night would get a little colder. And I specifically avoid HEB last night be cause of that. I figure i'd wait till it started then ride my atv to HEB. But for now i have my basic staples....firewood and beer.

Heh, heh

You know what they say Toady1 ... "stock up on canned goods."

[aggiecutter]

Ice Storm Warning for NE Texas, SW Arkansas, NW Louisiana, and SE Oklahoma:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
509 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-
UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...
MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...
QUITMAN...GILMER...JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...
RUSK...HENDERSON...CARTHAGE
509 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM
CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED AN ICE
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
12 PM CST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO NEAR A HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS TO
SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA AND LUFKIN TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY MUCH COLDER AIR DURING THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DROPPING TO NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
RESULTING IN FREEZING RAIN WHICH LEAD TO VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...AND ACCUMULATIONS ON TREES
AND POWER LINES MAY DISRUPT POWER. FOR THIS REASON... PREPARATIONS
NEED TO BE MADE ON SUNDAY FOR A POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN EVENT
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... AND PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. THE FREEZING RAIN
WILL WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES
DROP.

[Portastorm]

At this point ... and maybe my question is best posed to Jeff, AFM, Wxman57, or wall_cloud ... how can NWS forecast offices reference a colder surge of air moving down south later today if they have literally thrown out most, if not all, model guidance? The model runs I looked at don't necessarily show it occuring today.

In Austin, we're going to need that surge if we ever see any wintry precip. Otherwise, temps are firmly in the mid 30s and the skeptic in me is starting to wonder if this is going to be yet another example of a winter event being advertised but never verified.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just heard on the weather channel that roads are getting very icy in fort worth and that there have been numerous accidents.

[aggiecutter]

Portastorm, I am wondering the same thing. Where is this new Arctic surge coming from. I cant find it on the models or the weather maps. I asked the question twice last night and got no answer. I'm of the opinion if its not cold enough in Dallas for any significant winter precip, then it wont be cold enough places south and east of there. I would love for someone to show me where the boundary is right now. If its coming through late this afternoon or tonight, it has got to be somewhere in the region right now.

[hurrican19]

Alright...where is it? I thought I'd wake up to wind and rain...I got nothing!

The front hasn't even made it through KBPT yet! Wow, I thought it'd have gotten here between 4-6AM

KBPT:
Overcast
71°F
(22°C) Humidity: 90 %
Wind Speed: S 17 G 25 MPH
Barometer: 30.08" (1018.4 mb)
Dewpoint: 68°F (20°C)
Visibility: 8.00 mi

KORG:
Fog/Mist
68°F
(20°C) Humidity: 94 %
Wind Speed: SE 9 MPH
Barometer: 30.09"
Dewpoint: 66°F (19°C)
Visibility: 4.00 mi.

[cheezyWXguy]

Can anyone tell me why its 30 degrees and just raining?

[KatDaddy]

Front is drifting north toward Houston. It has been in the 50s at Pearland's Clover field with a NW wind. The temps have been rising since 7AM. Its currently at 70F with a south wind.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA

[Extremeweatherguy]

Can anyone tell me why its 30 degrees and just raining?

Well if it is really 30-degrees then it should be changing to ice on some objects. It may not be freezing on contact if the rain is not super-cooled when it reaches the surface, but after being on the ground/objects long enough it should finally freeze when those things (the ground/objects) go below freezing.

[gboudx]

We still have no icing going on over here cheezy. Still sitting at 32 with rain falling, but I'm observing no freezing, which I don't understand. I guess it's not really 32 now is it?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Front is drifting north toward Houston. It has been in the 50s at Pearland's Clover field with a NW wind. The temps have been rising since 7AM. Its currently at 70F with a south wind.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA

It probably is not doing a full-fledged drift north, but it is likely just meandering around SE of the city. Temperature readings in and NW of Houston are still in the 30s, 40s and 50s...

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps ... &wmo=99999

Also, the reason many places in and NW of Houston have seen slight temperature rises this morning is the fog. The fog has helped rise the dewpoints and thus, in turn, rise the temperatures. Once the fog goes away and drier air filters in, we should drop in temperatures.

[Portastorm]

Can anyone tell me why its 30 degrees and just raining?

The column of air through which the rain is falling is not cold enough to change water droplet to ice (i.e. sleet) or crystalize (i.e. snow). Remember, we've all been talking about how SHALLOW the layer of cold air is above the surface. Should that colder column of air deepen ... then you might see something besides rain.

[TrekkerCC]

Can anyone tell me why its 30 degrees and just raining?

The column of air through which the rain is falling is not cold enough to change water droplet to ice (i.e. sleet) or crystalize (i.e. snow). Remember, we've all been talking about how SHALLOW the layer of cold air is above the surface. Should that colder column of air deepen ... then you might see something besides rain.

I don't know the ice storm warning is going to verify in the Dallas area. It just not getting cold enough for it to really ice over. It been hovering 31/32 degrees this morning in my area. The really cold air is not here yet, and they don't expect it to be in the 20's till nightfall (through they thought it was going to be freezing by Saturday morning).

[Furious George]

12Z Nam appears to delay the onset of freezing conditons to HOU until Tuesday morning, though it gets real close. I wonder if its picking up on a slower than expected secondary surge or moderation in temps behind the front (Dallas still at 32 and Waco never dropped below freezing last night despite forecasted).

Timing is important obviously as it will affect school and business closures, so it would be good to see some consistancy.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/Guidance/M ... KIAH.1.txt

[gboudx]

I don't know the ice storm warning is going to verify in the Dallas area. It just not getting cold enough for it to really ice over. It been hovering 31/32 degrees this morning in my area. The really cold air is not here yet, and they don't expect it to be in the 20's till nightfall (through they thought it was going to be freezing by Saturday morning).

Yeah, even though Pete Delkus is showing freezing rain here in Rockwall, I can give a personal view that it is not freezing on anything. My plants, trees, kids play toys and fence have no ice on them. Yet.

[southerngale]

So nobody can find the next surge of Arctic air? I've read where NWS offices said it was coming through either late tonight or Monday and just read where Jeff said, "Secondary arctic surge moving through N TX will reach SE TX Monday."

Anyway, NWS Lake Charles is now showing Beaumont fall below freezing sometime Monday and not get above freezing until Wednesday. They have a high of 28° for Tuesday!

Here's the latest Special Weather Statement.

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
647 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-142200-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
647 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY BEGINNING LATE MONDAY...
...HAZARDOUS CONTITIONS COULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC WILL COMBINE WITH ARCTIC AIR CLOSE TO GROUND TO PRODUCE A
NEARLY STEADY STATE OF RAIN FALLING INTO FRIGID AIR. TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET 20 TO 30 DEGREES WITHIN A 12 HOUR PERIOD AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE FREEZING MARK COULD BE REACHED IN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS LATE MONDAY. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH
SLEET DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH FREEZING RAIN A POSSIBILITY IN
THE AFTERNOON.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN A QUARTER INCH CAN OCCUR BY MONDAY
EVENING ON EXPOSED OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES, POWER LINES AND BRIDGES
FOR THE LAKES AREA OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. CENTRAL LOUISIANA COULD
FOLLOW SUIT WITH ACCUMULATING ICE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
SPREADS.

AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS BEAUMONT AND LAKE CHARLES COULD SEE THIS
WINTRY MIX ON TUESDAY.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLETS AS WELL AS NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTRY WEATHER SITUATION.


$$

JS

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... X&site=LCH

[gboudx]

Southerngale, I'd like to see that secondary surge on a temperature map. Anyone have a link?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Could the secondary surge's leading edge be what is in the TX/OK panhandle right now?

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface ... duration=0

Temperatures in the TX panhandle have fallen into the lower to middle teens and in the OK panhandle they have fallen into the single digits.

For instance, last night at 8:53pm it was 20-degrees in Boise City, OK and at 11:53pm it was still 17-degrees. However, this morning they are now down to 8-degrees. Also in Boise City dewpoints went from the upper teens last evening down to the lower single digits this morning with a 7-degree dewpoint drop taking place in just one hour last night.