TX Winter WX Thread #7 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[teal61]

I live 2 miles from Hooks airport and its 55 at the airport...70.5 and my house.

my PWS

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... KTXSPRIN14

edit to fix link..also winds just went north and temp is starting to fall at 8:17

[Tamora]

TrekkerCC is this what you are talking about????
from: http://www.wfaa.com
8:00 p.m. There are 3 main storm systems affecting North Texas. The first one passed during the day, and the second will arrive by morning. This second one could bring moderate to heavy freezing rain to the DFW area. However, if it rains hard enough, warm air aloft could be brought down to the surface and melt much of the ice in the local area! Although this is a possibility, it is not a likelihood. The third and final wave will arrive Sunday night and Monday morning bringing light freezing rain along with gusty north winds. Therefore, if enough ice manages to accumulate on area trees and power lines, these gusty winds could threaten serious power outages by causing ice-ladened tree limbs to fall on power lines. However, if we do get a temperature spike during the day Sunday with temperatures climbing above freezing, this threat will be minimized. WFAA Meteorologist Steve McCauley

Yes, that is it. He stated this possible scenario a few times during the 6pm newscast. It was surprising to me as I had not heard this from NWS or other meteorologists.

I thought I saw it mentioned somewhere in the winter weather forum, I just can't remember who said it or where it was... If I find it I will pm you.

[Ptarmigan]

I live 2 miles from Hooks airport and its 55 at the airport...70.5 and my house.

my PWS

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... TXSPRIN14S

That's really bizarre all I can say. It's 70.5 at home and 55 at Hooks.

[aggiecutter]

Tamora, I've seen that happen several times during ice storms in Texarkana if the rain was particularly hard. I've seen the temp rise a degree or two during the heavy precip and then fall shortly after the heavy precip ended.

[jeff]

For the pro mets on the board, can you help me with this one? Steve McCauley in his forecast tonight said that warm air (at the upper level) in shallow dense cold air situations such as this could be drawn down to the lower levels if the rain is hard enough, and thus spiking the temperatures to above freezing. He offers this as a "best case" (improbable) scenario for us tomorrow. I saw this today when DFW was at 32 degrees, and then briefly touched 34 degrees after a thunderstorm. How often can/does this occur in borderline icing situations? Is there any prominent examples of this phenomenon? Are there any meteorological clues that could suggest that this scenario may happen (strong vertical velocities, etc)?

I touched on this earlier. I have seen it happen before in KCLL. When the air mass is very shallow convective downdraft can actually bring the warm air aloft down to the surface and raise the surface temps. a few degrees. I do not really think this will be a problem over N TX since temps will likely sink into the upper 20's and such instances ususally only result in a small 1-3 degree rise and only for a short period of time before CAA overtakes the local spot and pushes the temp back below freezing.

In CLL, I expreinced a freezing rain thundershower with a temp of 31 which pushed to temp up to 34 and then it fell back to 32 in 2 hours. From what I could see little metling happened during the above freezing period. Interesting nonetheless

[Tamora]

My dad lives in West Texas and they have had their share of snow this season. We were talking today and we were wondering what the rain to snow fall ratio was. We have had 3 inches of rain. If the air aloft wasn't 60 degrees, and the rain fell as snow, how much snow would have fallen.

[southerngale]

Per PM request: What about extreme SE TX and SW LA.

Feel arctic push is south instead of SE so I would expect ZR at Victoria before BPT and KLCH. With that being said...accumulations of ice over inalnd SE TX and NE TX may help drive the freezing line SE along and N of I-10 by Tuesday morning. Secondary arcitc surge arriving Monday will probably be the "real" front for SW LA as the current boundary just NW of KIAH may take a long time to reach the state line (18-24 hours).

I am not as concerned about points E of the state line and S of I-10, however points N of I-10 could very well have a decent ice threat Tuesday night and Wednesday. KBPT may see ZR late early Tuesday into Wednesday. Temps. should hover in the low to mid 30's through the entire period.

BTW Flash Flood Watch hoisted W of I-45. 2-3 inches already from Co. CO to Austin CO. Slow moving and training heavy band of thunderstorms really putting down the rain in the cold air. May need to extend the FFA eastward to include all areas later tonight...may see flash flood threat over SW LA where soils are still very wet on Sunday.

Thanks, Jeff. The temps you said that should hover over our area are similar to what KFDM is showing. The chief meteorologist there (greg_kfdm_tv on here) is very well respected and he's shown the colder temps for a while now, even back when LCH NWS had us in the 50's for highs this coming week. I always tend to trust him over the others in the area.

I'm in an area where I may get freezing rain or may not, but I guess that's pretty much the same for almost everyone, since it's so hard to nail exactly where it will occur.

I appreciate your posts on Storm2k. The same goes for AFM, wxman57, wall cloud, and the other mets who chime in.

[Ptarmigan]

I touched on this earlier. I have seen it happen before in KCLL. When the air mass is very shallow convective downdraft can actually bring the warm air aloft down to the surface and raise the surface temps. a few degrees. I do not really think this will be a problem over N TX since temps will likely sink into the upper 20's and such instances ususally only result in a small 1-3 degree rise and only for a short period of time before CAA overtakes the local spot and pushes the temp back below freezing.

In CLL, I expreinced a freezing rain thundershower with a temp of 31 which pushed to temp up to 34 and then it fell back to 32 in 2 hours. From what I could see little metling happened during the above freezing period. Interestly nonetheless

I've been outside during a snowfall and it tends to be warmer than no snowfall. Also, it's same with icestorms.

[vbhoutex]

FROPA in W. Houston(W Belt @Hammerly) at approximately 8:20pm. Temp has dropped from 68.3º to 59º in les than 5 minutes and it is pouring rain. Looks like it could be the start of a very nasty week!

[jeff]

Front is through KVCT (51 N at 9). Plowing on along the southern push...should clear Matagorda Bay by 200am. Front continues to seep through Harris County.

[Ptarmigan]

Now, there is is flash flood warning and winter storm warning. Now, that is bizarre. Flooding and icestorms will make it a real mess.

[Extremeweatherguy]

cold front has come through here! I am getting heavy rain with temps. in the 50s right now! Looks like that high of 62F tomorrow will not be happening.

[jeff]

My dad lives in West Texas and they have had their share of snow this season. We were talking today and we were wondering what the rain to snow fall ratio was. We have had 3 inches of rain. If the air aloft wasn't 60 degrees, and the rain fell as snow, how much snow would have fallen.

It can vary, but one rule of thumb for an air temp of 30, 1 inch of rain is about 10-12 inches of snow. Most of this would be a wet slushy snow that would compact over time and when measured on the ground one would probably only get about 6 inches of accumulations. I can't recall the other rules of thumb the 30 stuck in my head since it is most likely that temps are just below freezing over TX anytime it snows.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Based on obs, the front should probably be through IAH and downtown Houston within an hour or two. The NWS will likely have to bring down temps. again for tomorrow as we certainly will not see warming into the 60s.

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps ... &wmo=99999

[jeff]

Winter Storm Watch Issued south of Winter Storm Warning over SC TX. Watch includes Lavaca Co. just north of Victoria.

Awaiting Houston's call. Should be hoisting a watch now for NW and W counties of SE TX. If it were my call I would upgraded to a Winter Storm Watch from Columbus to Huntsville and then bring it southward to along and N of I-10 Sunday afternoon and include Colorado, Wharton, and Fort Bend counties.

[Tamora]

My dad lives in West Texas and they have had their share of snow this season. We were talking today and we were wondering what the rain to snow fall ratio was. We have had 3 inches of rain. If the air aloft wasn't 60 degrees, and the rain fell as snow, how much snow would have fallen.

It can vary, but one rule of thumb for an air temp of 30, 1 inch of rain is about 10-12 inches of snow. Most of this would be a wet slushy snow that would compact over time and when measured on the ground one would probably only get about 6 inches of accumulations. I can't recall the other rules of thumb the 30 stuck in my head since it is most likely that temps are just below freezing over TX anytime it snows.

We thought it might be HUGE. Thank you for sharing your information.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Front now inside the loop! Weather stations down in the NW loop are quickly dropping into the 60s. Looks to reach downtown within the hour.

Looks almost like it is speeding up some.

[GeneratorPower]

jeff, can you give us an update for those of us off to the east? I know this is primariliy a TX thread, but several of us downstream would appreciate it. Thanks.

[double D]

Interesting to note that Amarillo has gone from 18 to 20 within the last couple of hours. Is the air modifying a little bit or is it something else?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Interesting to note that Amarillo has gone from 18 to 20 within the last couple of hours. Is the air modifying a little bit or is it something else?

the second push of cold air is not in Amarillo yet. Once that push arrives in the state, things will get interesting quickly!

You can see that second push is still well north, however it will shoot south very quickly and reach us by sometime tomorrow:

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag226.html