Wierd weather for Florida

[boca]

This El Nino which would normally give Florida a wetter and cooler pattern is giving us warm and dry conditions. My theory is that the Pacific jet is so strong that its affecting the subtropical jet which would give us rain is displaced or non existent. Just look at the Pacific NW which is supposed to be dry.

[MetSul Weather Center]

Boca

As we posted in other topic, this Niño episode now is weak and the strenght has been weakening for some weeks in the Pacific. NOAA, yesterday, pointed in its monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that warm conditions could extended to May in the Pacific. We disagree. NOAA is working on the idea that another Kelvin Wave could extends a litlle further this episode. Looking daily to indexes, models and SSTs in the Pacific we believe the Bureau of Meteorology of Australia (BOM) is right at the point. El Niño should be gone by fall (SH) / spring (NH). La Niña is a possibility to 2007, mainly to the second half of he winter. This idea has a major impact on tropical activity.

Boca, the NOAA in its statement said the following regarding Southern Brazil:

Global effects that can be expected during January-March include drier-than-average conditions over portions of Malaysia, Indonesia, northern and eastern Australia, some of the U.S.-affiliated islands in the tropical North Pacific, northern South America and southeastern Africa, and wetter-than-average conditions over central South America (Uruguay, northeastern Argentina, southeastern Paraguay and southern Brazil) and possibly along the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru.

Well, some areas of Southern Brazil present wetter than average conditions recenttly, but large portions of the region are stil in drought conditions. So, the usual effects of El Niño are not quite evident this year here in Southern Brazil. Just like in Florida.

For years we observe a relationship between seasonal variability between Eastern US and Southern Brazil. See a message we posted this:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... t=#1505976

Regards,

Alexandre Aguiar
MetSul Meteorologia Weather Center
Sao Leopoldo - Brazil (South America)

[NDG]

Like somebody posted one time, not all El Ninos are created equall, but if I was to say, we in some parts of FL are getting the effects of it, maybe not in total rainfall, but in severe weather, we definetely did not have these severe weather episodes in FL last year when we had a true La Nina year, the positioning of the subtropical jet matters a lot as well, if you were to ask somebody in SE TX or southern Louisiana they will tell that this is definetely El Nino conditions they are having this year.

[MetSul Weather Center]

Like somebody posted one time, not all El Ninos are created equall, but if I was to say, we in some parts of FL are getting the effects of it, maybe not in total rainfall, but in severe weather, we definetely did not have these severe weather episodes in FL last year when we had a true La Nina year, the positioning of the subtropical jet matters a lot as well, if you were to ask somebody in SE TX or southern Louisiana they will tell that this is definetely El Nino conditions they are having this year.

Iam sure the weather is getting influenced by El Niño in Florida, but surely the consequences are not evident in precipitation in all areas. Definitely the most important impact so far is the above average temperature and as consequence severe weather. The tornadic event in Christmas day was impressive. Warmer conditions lead to more instability. But you are right at the point: no El Niño is identical to other. History tells that all over the world.