TX Winter WX Thread #6 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[Mattie]

Ok, is this typical or what . . . our winter storm watch has been cancelled and in its place they have put a freezing rain advisory - what does this mean for the lay person??
We ARE really getting the winter storm with freezing drizzle, or do they not consider freezing drizzle to be a winter storm?

[wxman57]

Why are the NWS holding back?

I think we ALL would love to hear the answer to that question. I have to wonder just how much politics has to do with it. Mr. Mayor and County Commissioners don't want a panic on their hands, or have to pay OT to workers, or pay extra $$ for de-icing supplies? I really just don't get it.

I don't think it has anything to do with Mayors or County Commissioners or a public panic. It's likely a much more simple reason. Accountability. What's the incentive for a government worker to go against all the models with his/her own forecast? If the forecast is blown, he/she will have some explaining to do to the bosses but the public have very low expectations so no loss there. But if the forecaster agrees with the models and the forecast is blown it's the models' fault, not the fault of the forecaster.

The forecasters just aren't held accountable by the general public, their clients. In the private weather business we have to fight for every single client we get, and every dollar we make. It's not easy convincing some companies that they should pay for a service that the NWS provides for free. The only way to convince them is to outperform the NWS forecasts in times like this. By doing so, we can save our clients tens of thousands of dollars (or a lot more).

If we don't provide superior forecsats that save our clients money then they can fire us and go elsewhere. If enough clients follow the lead, then we're out of a job. That's a big incentive to do your very best and provide the earliest possible heads-up with an event like this.

[TexasStooge]

Ok, is this typical or what . . . our winter storm watch has been cancelled and in its place they have put a freezing rain advisory - what does this mean for the lay person??
We ARE really getting the winter storm with freezing drizzle, or do they not consider freezing drizzle to be a winter storm?

I'm guessing what the NWS is trying to say is that areas east of the Ice Storm Warning line may side-step the inevitable...but I wouldn't hold my breath. The fun part is that tomorrow morning, me and my family are scheduled to donate blood.

[Mattie]

Well TexasStooge - I'm guessing that you have been around long enough to know that it's basically a "crap shoot" as for the forecast and the ultimate outcome. After 13 years in the DFW area - I can honestly say that if the weather people say that it WILL happen, then it won't and vice versa. . . However, I keep hoping that they eventually get it right. Channel 5 tonight was already 20 degrees off the "real" temperature at their 5 o'clock program. I was watching the temp drop and they were still reporting earlier in the day temps. I guess all of this is part of the thrill of watching the boards.

[CaptinCrunch]

DUE TO THIS REASONING...THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AND
RUNNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

Mean's that the storm is getting worse for the easteren counties of NTX

[Air Force Met]

OK...the front is through Waco. Looking back at the ETA extrapolated data...yesterday's 12/00z run had is passing through b/w 18 and 00z tomorrow. So, the front is 18 hours ahead of schedule on just a 24 hour cycle of the model run...

So...it's moving a lot faster and it is about 10 degrees colder than the ETA has forecasted. The GFS didn't have it coming through until 15/00Z...so the GFS is almost 48 hours too slow on this front in a 24 hours cycle of the model.

The 13/00Z run doesn't have it coming in until 12Z and the temps are already blown. So...the CURRENT run is already HOSED.

Will these NWS guys ever learn the lesson of shallow arctic air?

[Tamora]

Just was reading a blog on WFAA weather site with Steve McCauley..he's the one who really blows things up too big at times, but this time I think he is finally right.

I like watching Steve He gets so excited. I know his forecast sometimes bust, but last weekend when the models were showing artic air, he was almost giddy. He was so excited before his forecast. I think it was Sunday evening. I like how he explains things like the McFarland Signature and other weather anomalies.

[JenBayles]

OK, Mario Gomez on KHOU just advertized the big Slow Down of the front just before hitting SE TX, and still no FROPA in Houston until Sunday night? Why the slow down? <blonde moment>

[GeneratorPower]

OK, Mario Gomez on KHOU just advertized the big Slow Down of the front just before hitting SE TX, and still no FROPA in Houston until Sunday night? Why the slow down? <blonde moment>

Exactly. Mario is having a blonde moment.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I don't think I've ever seen a forecast about to blow up as big as the Texarkana, TX. A high of 61 tomorrow and a low tomorrow night of 50! Ha! The front is on top of them now.

[JenBayles]

Why are the NWS holding back?

I think we ALL would love to hear the answer to that question. I have to wonder just how much politics has to do with it. Mr. Mayor and County Commissioners don't want a panic on their hands, or have to pay OT to workers, or pay extra $$ for de-icing supplies? I really just don't get it.

I don't think it has anything to do with Mayors or County Commissioners or a public panic. It's likely a much more simple reason. Accountability. What's the incentive for a government worker to go against all the models with his/her own forecast? If the forecast is blown, he/she will have some explaining to do to the bosses but the public have very low expectations so no loss there. But if the forecaster agrees with the models and the forecast is blown it's the models' fault, not the fault of the forecaster.

The forecasters just aren't held accountable by the general public, their clients. In the private weather business we have to fight for every single client we get, and every dollar we make. It's not easy convincing some companies that they should pay for a service that the NWS provides for free. The only way to convince them is to outperform the NWS forecasts in times like this. By doing so, we can save our clients tens of thousands of dollars (or a lot more).

If we don't provide superior forecsats that save our clients money then they can fire us and go elsewhere. If enough clients follow the lead, then we're out of a job. That's a big incentive to do your very best and provide the earliest possible heads-up with an event like this.

Thank you for the very well-thought-out and reasoned response. What a shame though - all that brainpower just idling away and following a stupid machine. I can't imagine how frustrating that must be for those having to work like that. Wow - very depressing.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

OK, Mario Gomez on KHOU just advertized the big Slow Down of the front just before hitting SE TX, and still no FROPA in Houston until Sunday night? Why the slow down? <blonde moment>

same thing at abc 13 and tim heller, I just couldnt believe I kept shaking my head and saying "what a big bust coming" more scrambing tomorrow I see!

[Air Force Met]

OK, Mario Gomez on KHOU just advertized the big Slow Down of the front just before hitting SE TX, and still no FROPA in Houston until Sunday night? Why the slow down? <blonde moment>

Because Mario is having a hard time reconciling what he is observing (fast frontal movement) and what the models are saying (slow frontal movement) with what the NWS is saying (we're not sure)...

Why? Because he's making the same critical error that the NWS is making and forgetting that this is shallow arctic air.

[ajurcat]

OK...the front is through Waco. Looking back at the ETA extrapolated data...yesterday's 12/00z run had is passing through b/w 18 and 00z tomorrow. So, the front is 18 hours ahead of schedule on just a 24 hour cycle of the model run...

So...it's moving a lot faster and it is about 10 degrees colder than the ETA has forecasted. The GFS didn't have it coming through until 15/00Z...so the GFS is almost 48 hours too slow on this front in a 24 hours cycle of the model.

The 13/00Z run doesn't have it coming in until 12Z and the temps are already blown. So...the CURRENT run is already HOSED.

Will these NWS guys ever learn the lesson of shallow arctic air?

From a very rarely poster but a reader all the time, the front will be in Houston tomorrow-ish. My hubby has finally listened to storm2k but now we have to make sure our elderly neighbors are prepared. Our sons will be going out Saturday a.m. to help them.
Thank you for all the input from everyone.

[Shoshana]

Jim Spencer at KXAN is practically drooling... calling it one for the recordbooks and a bunch of stuff like how huge this whole event is going to turn out to be. He said CenTX could see 5 inches of rain before the it turns icy on Sunday.

Sounds like he hasn't seen anything to compare - and he's been doing the weather for a while.

There's an extended weather video up at http://www.kxan.com/

BTW it's still 69F here at almost 11pm. That's what makes me sure we'll have some kind of ice storm - it's always warm (or hot) and humid before we get socked in...

[JenBayles]

OK, Mario Gomez on KHOU just advertized the big Slow Down of the front just before hitting SE TX, and still no FROPA in Houston until Sunday night? Why the slow down? <blonde moment>

Because Mario is having a hard time reconciling what he is observing (fast frontal movement) and what the models are saying (slow frontal movement) with what the NWS is saying (we're not sure)...

Why? Because he's making the same critical error that the NWS is making and forgetting that this is shallow arctic air.

And the worst part of the cast? He tells everyone no worries for the weekend - just rain. Pleeeenty of time to prepare... no big deal until next week. ??**A&*!F@?*!

All I can do is tell everyone I know to pay no attention to that man behind the curtain...

[wxman57]

Actually, I think the 06Z NAM had the front through Waco this evening. Can't use the thickness lines, have to use low-level winds.

Here's the 00Z NAM 1000mb streamline forecast valid 9pm Saturday. It shows the front over downtown Houston. After then, though, it moves the front north into Montgomery County until Sunday night:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/NAM.gif

Here's the 06Z NAM from yesterday showing the front very near Waco. It wasn't that far off:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/nam06z.gif

[Shoshana]

Jim Spencer said we'll get the cold front tomorrow, then a colder front on Sunday and it's the second one that's going to drop us in to the ice rink.

[JenBayles]

Some of our neighbors went camping at Pedernales Falls State Park today planning on coming home Sunday. Wonder if those tents will collapse under the weight of the ice? Hope they didn't locate them under some of those big pine trees!

[Shoshana]

Pedernales is just outside Austin (I think). It will be close, but what they really need to be careful of is the gullywashers.