TX Winter WX Thread #6 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

wxman57,

That's an excellent take on the situation. However I'd give credit to a few other offices that made note of classic Arctic attacks in Texas and how they defy the models. I noticed Amarillo, DFW, Lubbock, and my home town boys in Corpus that early on when it was obvious something was going to happen to not bite on every model run of the GFS.

[serenata]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... X&site=FWD

Front has made it through Waco.

[greg_kfdm_tv]

57....I agree with you totally and have seen this same thing happen over and over again for the 27 plus years that I have forecasted in the Beaumont area.

It is tough to explain to people, however, why your forecast is so different than the other television stations. You just hope they notice the difference and remember who got it right.

[wxman57]

Does anyone have an informed opinion as to what could occur in central/north MS? NWS says 35 with rain Mon night, 38 with rain Tues, and 28 with chance of rain Tues night for Canton (20 miles north of Jackson).

Our local media is...well...local media.

I'm in North Alabama and a lot of my customers are in North Mississippi. I haven't heard anything about winter weather yet. AFM, wxman57, can you help us out?

It doesn't look like any threat of freezing rain in northern Alabama, and only a slight risk in NW Mississippi. This will be mostly a TX/OK/AR and northern LA event as far as the freezing rain goes.

[rsdoug1981]

It doesn't look like any threat of freezing rain in northern Alabama, and only a slight risk in NW Mississippi. This will be mostly a TX/OK/AR and northern LA event as far as the freezing rain goes.

Sounds good to me! Much obliged, wxman.

[wxman57]

wxman57,

That's an excellent take on the situation. However I'd give credit to a few other offices that made note of classic Arctic attacks in Texas and how they defy the models. I noticed Amarillo, DFW, Lubbock, and my home town boys in Corpus that early on when it was obvious something was going to happen to not bite on every model run of the GFS.

I wasn't paying much attention to AMA, CRP, or LBB, but the DFW office blew it big time. They appeared to see it coming, but actually admitted that they were "sitting on the fence" waiting until they were 100% sure which way to go. The Houston office has improved some. They were at least going for highs in the 40s fairly early on rather than 50s or 60s as they used to. I know Bill Read and the guys down there. Good meteorologists. But there's really no incentive to go out on a limb for the general public. They can't be fired if they get it wrong.

[Valkhorn]

It's deja vu all over again. I've been forecasting the weather in Houston for 26 years. Every time an Arctic front drops down, the same things happen:

1. Long-range models indicate a possible pattern change that could lead to very cold air and/or freezing/frozen precip

2. Local NWS offices ignore the changing pattern and forecast continued warm in their long-range forecasts

3. Models lose the cold air in the medium range and/or predict it'll stall and move back to the north as a warm front

4. Local NWS offices believe the models and forecast warm temps, though maybe hedge a few degrees lower

5. Arctic air blasts south defying all model projections as far as timing and post-frontal temps.

6. Local NWS offices realize their error as the temperatures fall like a rock and freezing/frozen precip moves in. They hurridly put out winter weather watches and just as quickly change them to warnings

7. Some NWS offices never catch on even then and continue to forecast the front to stall and move back to the north.

8. Front blasts by remaining NWS offices a day ahead of schedule and forecasters try to catch up with the rapidly-falling temps

9. Arctic air settles in, along with freezing/frozen precip.

10. Local NWS offices say that the models were just wrong - sorry!

11. Repeat during each subsequent Arctic outbreak over the next 2-3 decades.

I think that's about it. That's why I haven't chimed in so much today. I've seen it over and over again. Fun to watch. Wink Will any of the NWS mets learn from their mistakes? Maybe. Oklahoma City NWS mets have impressed me with their attempts and their discussions of how Arctic air defies the models, but they were still way too warm and didn't go with their guts or with their experience. Maybe next time.

If any of you actually work for one of these NWS offices, sorry. I know that your procedures may not allow you to actually think about what happened last time and make a forecast that goes against all the models.

The same thing in Hattiesburg. I've seen more highs hedged lower for the current day than I can count. And, I cannot remember many times when the highs forecasted were too cool on the day of.

I remember the front in early December had us progged with highs around 54 one day, and the actual high was about 43.

Any stooge can forecast climatology.

[GeneratorPower]

wxman57, what do you think of the CPC hazards graphic showing potential ice/snow deeper into the south/east U.S. Where are they getting this info from?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... hreats.gif

[gboudx]

DFW issues a Freezing Rain Advisory for that area of the CWA that is not in the Ice Storm Warning area. It replaces the Winter Storm Watch.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
909 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

TXZ094-095-104>106-119>121-132>134-142>145-131115-
/O.UPG.KFWD.WS.A.0002.070113T0600Z-070115T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFWD.ZR.Y.0001.070113T0600Z-070115T0000Z/
FANNIN-LAMAR-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BONHAM...PARIS...PLANO...GREENVILLE...
COMMERCE...COOPER...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...
FORNEY...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...
MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...
CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO
909 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST SUNDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

ARCTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO FREEZING BY
DAYBREAK ALONG A GOLDTHWAITE....CLEBURNE...DALLAS...BONHAM LINE
WITH A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE-QUARTER INCH ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST.

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. SLOW DOWN AND USE
CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST
PLACES THAT ICY SPOTS WILL DEVELOP.

[HarlequinBoy]

wxman57, what do you think of the CPC hazards graphic showing potential ice/snow deeper into the south/east U.S. Where are they getting this info from?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... hreats.gif

Yeah, that one threw me off too. Nothing like the forecasts currently out.

Also -- Tulsa has continued to expand their Ice Storm Warning eastward and southward.

[ETXHAMXYL]

I don't understand the NWS in FTW having me at 37 tonight and high of 43 when the front passes through here tonight? ARe we going to warm up tomorrow? I still think it is way too warm for tomorrow morning. Maybe they don't change the forecast until after the front passes through and then they get off the fence they have been sitting on for the entire week.

I feel for the people who believe these forecasts. My cousin just called and wasn't concerned saying it won't get bad or below freezing until Sunday afternoon. If that is the case then the front will have to move back north as a warm front. Told her not to listen to the forecast. Most of our forecasts come from Tyler and they are always tooo high. The other forecasts from DFW also have us much warmer too.

[GeneratorPower]

micah, last year there was a smaller ice-storm that rolled across the southeast then up the east coast all the way to New Hampshire. I remember it was very progressive, and ice storm warnings went all the way up, but not a big area at a time.

I've seen the ridge over N. Florida/East Coast and perhaps they are thinking that will block the arctic front. ? That doesn't explain the CPC graphic, though.

[ETXHAMXYL]

Just was reading a blog on WFAA weather site with Steve McCauley..he's the one who really blows things up too big at times, but this time I think he is finally right. He states there is a huge amount of moisture coming up from the California Baja and will go directly over the center of Texas and race northward overnight and then a bigger load follows on Sunday. He is saying large amounts of frozen precip. will fall from tonight into Sunday night and will add to the accumulations dramatically.
This is not what the NWS is leading people to believe with their 1/4 inch. Like AFM stated way too small in amounts. IT will we much more that that. Why are the NWS holding back?

[gboudx]

Etxhamxyl, Dan Henry on Fox is talking about the next wave of precip coming Saturday night into Sunday that he is most concerned with. Where are you located in east TX?

[JenBayles]

Why are the NWS holding back?

I think we ALL would love to hear the answer to that question. I have to wonder just how much politics has to do with it. Mr. Mayor and County Commissioners don't want a panic on their hands, or have to pay OT to workers, or pay extra $$ for de-icing supplies? I really just don't get it.

[HarlequinBoy]

micah, last year there was a smaller ice-storm that rolled across the southeast then up the east coast all the way to New Hampshire. I remember it was very progressive, and ice storm warnings went all the way up, but not a big area at a time.

I've seen the ridge over N. Florida/East Coast and perhaps they are thinking that will block the arctic front. ? That doesn't explain the CPC graphic, though.

Ah, okay. We had two winter events in February here last year.

I'm not sure about the graphic though, maybe someone will shed some light on it? But the NWS in Jackson is forecast freezing rain for the northwest part of their CWA, so I'm very confused. We'll just have to wait and see.

[wall_cloud]

This is not what the NWS is leading people to believe with their 1/4 inch. Like AFM stated way too small in amounts. IT will we much more that that. Why are the NWS holding back?

Not all of the products are suggesting only 1/4 inch. By definition, 1/4 inch is the minimum required for a WSW (or ice storm warning).

[ETXHAMXYL]

I am located in Athens TExas. We are 75 miles SE of DAllas and about 40 miles SW of Tyler. Sort of ETX and NTX on the borderline of both areas. I can't tell you the times that we were NOT going to get HIT and then we get it BIG.
Back in Jan. 82..the day that plane slid off the runway into the Potomac we had been told it would be cold, but it started to rain then freezing rain then 12 inches of snow. it just came out of the blue...talk about a shock...have a feeling it might happen again tomorrow only with ice and not snow.

[wxman57]

wxman57, what do you think of the CPC hazards graphic showing potential ice/snow deeper into the south/east U.S. Where are they getting this info from?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... hreats.gif

I think that area of freezing rain needs to be a lit fatter in Texas and skinnier on the eastern end. Probably north of MS/AL.

[Air Force Met]

It's deja vu all over again. ...

If any of you actually work for one of these NWS offices, sorry. I know that your procedures may not allow you to actually think about what happened last time and make a forecast that goes against all the models.

Why apologize? They do it every time and they are doing it again.

Tell me...when it comes to arctic air...has there ever been a time when they busted their high temps on the high side when it was overcast and raining? In other words...has there ever been a time when they forecasted 44 and rain (with arctic air coming south)...and it was 50?

No...they've always busted on the low side...and usually 10 degreees low.

They'll never learn.