TX Winter WX Thread #6 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[southerngale]

Yeah Scott...that's Greg. He never just copies the NWS like some other locals seem to do. He makes his own forecast and it's often different from the NWS, and correct. Of course you can't get ALL of them right, so who knows? Looks a little ominous, eh?

[freeport_texas22]

this freezing rain and stuff isnt expected newhere near here is it? clute/lakejackson.angleton area is it?

[southerngale]

this freezing rain and stuff isnt expected newhere near here is it? clute/lakejackson.angleton area is it?

The NWS shows a slight chance (20%) of rain or freezing rain for that area Wednesday night.

[Stratosphere747]

Yeah Scott...that's Greg. He never just copies the NWS like some other locals seem to do. He makes his own forecast and it's often different from the NWS, and correct. Of course you can't get ALL of them right, so who knows? Looks a little ominous, eh?

Very much so.....

Yesterday I was more concerned with the speed of the front, and not so much the moisture. Today it's the other way around. Moisture looks to be in place, while the front has slowed down some.

I wish the Texans O-line was better, and I would call for a block...

[Stratosphere747]

Should we be surprised that there is a tornado warning, with a possible ice event looming?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?w ... do+Warning

[CaptinCrunch]

Don't know if it's been posted yet, BUT the front has made it's to my house!! curent temp is 43 that's a drop of 20 degrees from the 63 it was just 1 hour ago.

[Tireman4]

In a space of an hour? Goodness.

[Mattie]

It dropped from 62 to 44 in 20 minutes here . . . now it's 40.8 and still dropping from what I can tell. . . I am betting on freezing before midnight tonight for North Central Texas (DFW metroplex)

[TrekkerCC]

It dropped from 62 to 44 in 20 minutes here . . . now it's 40.8 and still dropping from what I can tell. . . I am betting on freezing before midnight tonight for North Central Texas (DFW metroplex)

I can confirm. The temperature has dipped about 15 to 20 degrees in my area as well (65F earlier to 47F now). I expect freezing by midnight certainly (the 21z RUC2 run) gives me some support. Metroplex probably freezing or close to freezing by midnight. Southern zones (my educated guess) by 2am or 3am (or daybreak at the latest).

[A1A]

They still aren't showing an Austin hit until Sunday?? These artic fronts usually come thru quicker than that, the wind isn't forecasted to shift NE until Sunday.

[cheezyWXguy]

Its 38 here right now, and still a litle less than an hour since the front came thru...64 to 38...26 degree drop in one hour...not bad, eh?

[southerngale]

Wow, pretty fast drops in temps!

A1A, I like your avatar....definitely different.

[KatDaddy]

Wow. Gotta say Jeff's last update is very scary. I find it hard to believe it will actually be anything close to that extreme. Jeff is very good thus I have some serious concern. Enough to get my spare propane tank filled tomorrow just in case.

[aggiecutter]

The streamline analysis shows exactly where the front is. I am getting very concerned that I am going to have a frontal passage 24 hours ahead of previous forecast. Presently, it is only 60 miles to the north of me. The local mets have been saying for the past couple days, including tonight, that the cold air wouldn't arrive until midnight tomorrow night. They are in for a big surprise.

Streamline Analysis:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surfa ... mlines.gif

[CaptinCrunch]

The streamline analysis shows exactly where the front is. I am getting very concerned that I am going to have a frontal passage 24 hours ahead of previous forecast. Presently, it is only 60 miles to the north of me. The local mets have been saying for the past couple days, including tonight, that the cold air wouldn't arrive until midnight tomorrow night. They are in for a big surprise.

Streamline Analysis:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surfa ... mlines.gif

front came thru 14 hrs ahead of last nights forecast, so expect pretty much the same thing.

[HarlequinBoy]

I think you could be write aggie.. I think the NWS Shreveport may need to revise their forecast, especially for McCurtain County, Oklahoma and their northwest zones. Although they mentioned that the shallow layer of cold air would have trouble making it over the terrain so we'll wait and see.

What may be the saving grace for parts of western Arkansas and the southern Ozarks is the terrain itself blocking the cold air.

[serenata]

36 degrees in Plano, TX right now.

Mets around the Austsin area keep saying that the front will stall for one day (Saturday) due to the system coming in from the west.

[cajungal]

Huge differences for highs from LCH NWS for Beaumont and the forecast just put out by local KFDM.

NWS..

Sunday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. South wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Sunday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 39. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest.

M.L.King Day: Periods of rain, mainly after noon. High near 49 (KFDM = 34). North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Monday Night: Periods of rain. Low around 32. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 43 (KFDM = 32). North wind around 15 mph.

Tuesday Night: A chance of freezing rain or rain. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday: A chance of freezing rain or rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46 (KFDM = 36). Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 31.


KFDM:




Can't be both!!

Yes, that is quite a difference! TWC STILL has us here in SE Louisiana at 54 degrees for Tuesday with rain. And our local weather mets (New Orleans) has our high at 50 on Tuesday with rain. It can be that BIG of a difference between the Beaumont/Lake Charles area to SE Louisiana. Our own local weather board has been pretty much dead.

[aggiecutter]

Looking at the latest surface pressures, I don't see the front stalling until it gets to the Mississippi River when it will run into the SE Ridge. A disturbance might slow its southern progress, but not stall not it.

Surface Pressures:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/temp_slp.gif

[ETXHAMXYL]

HEY AGGIECUTTER where is your QTH? location? You mentioned in a post the front was about 60 miles to your north. I'm about 75 miles se of Big D? Wondering if we are close by? Temp still very warm and muggy near 70 here in Athens Texas.