TX Winter WX Thread #6 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[Extremeweatherguy]

Houston AFD looks to have sped up the frontal timing and says that the mix will begin Monday morning in northern zones, spread SE during the day and reach the central areas by Monday evening/night. This leads me to believe that some areas of north/northwest Houston could be into the winter weather by Monday afternoon. Very interesting disco indeed:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
254 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AND TO A GREATER EXTENT NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOIST LAYER DEEPENING OVER
REGION ESPECIALLY OVER AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NEAR ABI TO RPH TO ADM. READINGS JUST AHEAD OF BOUNDARY IN THE 60S
WITH LOWER TO MID 30S BEHIND. INTERESTINGLY...850 MB 12Z ANALYSIS
INDICATE -21 DEG C AT LIBERAL KANSAS. SURFACE READINGS ACROSS THAT
STATE IN THE TEENS (F). MIX OF SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING LIGHT
RAIN REPORTED BY SEVERAL STATIONS AT OKLAHOMA THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. BACK TO OUR CWFA...WE EXPECT INCREASING LIGHT CONVECTION
FROM WEST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING SATURDAY WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS. WE EXPECT SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH ADVECTION FOG AFFECTING COASTAL
ZONES LATE EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS MAY AFFECT
ADJACENT ZONES BUT FOG OVER THAT REGION SHOULD BE LIGHT. PATCHY SEA FOG
WILL LINGER OVER NEARSHORE WATERS AND BAYS THROUGH SUNDAY (UNTIL FRONT
SWEEP THROUGH). WITH SHALLOW VERY COLD AIR SLICING ACROSS TEXAS...WE
STAYED CLOSER TO NAM SOLUTION IN FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVEMENT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHWEST ZONES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES DURING MORNING...AND MOVE ACROSS
REMAINDER OF CWFA DURING AFTERNOON...REACHING COAST EARLY EVENING.
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER SW CONUS WILL HANG ON SAME REGION NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS EJECTING IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TOWARD TEXAS.
THIS WILL BRING PRECIP ON TOP OF SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE
OVER CWFA EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE
MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN EXCEPT FOR COASTAL WATERS AND AREAS
NEAR THE COAST. WE ISSUED SPSHGX TO INFORM PUBLIC OF THIS
ANTICIPATED SCENARIO. HWOHGX BEING UPDATED AT THIS MOMENT. NORTHERN
ZONES SHOULD EXPECT MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AFTER EARLY TO MID
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER MIX WILL SPREAD TO CENTRAL ZONES MONDAY
NIGHT. WE STAYED LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE WITH OUR TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT IN LIGHT OF SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR
OUTBREAK. MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL HANG ON UNTIL MID WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENING THURSDAY. DRYING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.

AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

[JenBayles]

Got an email at 1:30 this afternoon from a friend in Tulsa, who works at the community college there:

Well, I’m home now. I met some friends for lunch and when we got back to campus, the parking lots were almost empty. In the hour and a half that I was gone, they had sent out a memo and everyone had left. The roads aren’t bad right now – it was 60 degrees 10 hours ago – but it was sleeting and freezing rain when I left at 8:30 this morning. They are expecting it to get really bad over the next few days. They tend to scare people because then they will watch the news. But, it could actually get as bad as they say – who knows. We’ve already had one ice/snow storm this winter that was a doozy.

[gboudx]

DFW afternoon discussion. Ice storm warning extended to Tarrant county, but not Dallas and counties east. Not sure what that means at this point. They are saying the cold air advection has slowed behind the front.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
316 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

...WINTER WEATHER WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDY SKIES AND INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN COMMON ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY. REGIONAL 88-D MOSAIC IS LIT UP WITH A RATHER BROAD AREA
OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LEADING EDGE OF SURFACE
FRONT AT 21Z EXTENDS ALONG A BIG SPRING TO DECATUR TO GAINESVILLE
LINE. MIXED PRECIPITATION...RANGING FROM RAIN...FZRA...SLEET...AND
SOME POSSIBLE SNOWFLAKES /IN DEEPER COLDER AIR OVER NORTHERN OK/ HAS
BEEN REPORTED THIS AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
HAS SLACKED OFF...AS SURFACE WINDS PRESENTLY RANGE FROM CALM TO
5-10KTS AT SOME OBSERVATION SITES IN OK.

HEAVY RAIN FALLING THROUGH THE SHALLOW COLD DEPTH WILL LIKELY
TRANSPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FROM ALOFT...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
NEARLY STEADY AROUND OR JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...BEFORE THE
FRONT DIGS DEEPER INTO NORTH TEXAS. AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF A CISCO TO MINERAL WELLS TO GAINESVILLE LINE WILL
BE AFFECTED FIRST...AS TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY
EARLY EVENING AND TO SUB FREEZING READINGS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENTUALLY
AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH TO
SHERMAN LINE. WE HAVE UPDATED THE ICE STORM WARNING TO INCLUDE
TARRANT COUNTY/FORT WORTH...BUT KEPT DALLAS COUNTY IN A WINTER STORM
WATCH AT THIS TIME. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAST THE COLD AIR
WILL TRANSLATE THE METROPLEX. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING FREEZING
RAIN BY SUNRISE IN THE METROPLEX WILL BE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LIFT WILL TRANSLATE THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. WRF PROGS OF MOISTURE FLUX/MASS CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENSIS BANDS SUGGEST A SLUG OF ENERGY WILL PASS OVER NORTH
TEXAS VERY LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A SHORT BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION BY LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER PUSH OF FORCING
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE COMMON MODE OF
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA MAY CHANGE
OVER TO SLEET AS THE WARM LAYER ALOFT COOLS A BIT. ALTHOUGH A
SNOWFLAKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
CWA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE SATURATED LAYER WILL LIE
PRIMARILY BELOW THE FAVORED DENDRITIC ZONE.

TEMPERATURES OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL BE COLD THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
50 DEGREES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT FRIDAY. GFS LAGS SOME PRECIPITATION
ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS FROM LATE MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS SUBTLE WAVES RIDE THROUGH THE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW. MED RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE EXTENDED...BUT WILL NOT JUMP
ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS AT THIS TIME.

[Mattie]

Has the front slowed? Earlier reports said that our "Winter Storm Watch" would begin @ 6 and I just noticed that it has now been pushed to "Winter Storm Watch" beginning at midnight tonight . . .

[Extremeweatherguy]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
315 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-
131800-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
315 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

...ARCTIC BLAST WITH THE THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER ON THE WAY FOR
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

AFTER SOME UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER WITH WHAT FEELS LIKE A WARM FALL
DAY...HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY AND SATURDAY...MOTHER NATURE WILL
DRIVE A AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE
DROPS OF 20 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEW
AIRMASS. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE THREAT
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR. THE GROUND SHOULD BE WARM AND THIS WOULD
HINDER THE FORMATION OF ICE ON ROADS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT BY NOON ON
MONDAY BRIDGES AND ELEVATED ROADS IN THE AREAS NORTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO HUNTSVILLE TO GROVETON LINE MAY BEGINNING TO FREEZE UP DUE TO
THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THAT WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING. THE
TEMPERATURE RANGE ON MONDAY WILL BE SMALL AND SHOULD HOVER BETWEEN
30 AND 37 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THIS AREA. LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THE
THREAT OF ROADWAYS ICING UP SHOULD EXPAND SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE
HOUSTON METROPLEX AND GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59
CORRIDOR. WITH NIGHTFALL MONDAY THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DROP. TO SOUTH THE SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59
CORRIDOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY SO
ONLY RAIN OR PERHAPS SOME SLEET MAY GET MIXED IN MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
UP TO 1/2 INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BE SEVERELY HAMPERED
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ONE LAST SHOT OF MOISTURE WILL RIDE
UP OVER THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND COULD BRING SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING FOR AREAS FROM FROM BRENHAM TO HUNTSVILLE TO
GROVETON. ACROSS THE CENTRAL BELT OF THE AREA...COLUMBUS TO
HOUSTON TO LIBERTY...AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS NEAR THE COAST
COULD EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING FOR A FEW
HOURS BUT 3 TO 6 HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WIND CHILL INDICES OF 15 TO 30 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH THE COLDER READINGS OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WIND CHILL
VALUES OF 15 TO 25 DEGREES WILL BE COMMONPLACE ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO SHELTER SENSITIVE PLANTS AND MAKE ANY
OTHER PREPARATIONS NECESSARY TO WINTERIZE YOUR PROPERTY. WE WANT TO
STRESS THAT THIS IS A DEVELOPING SITUATION AND THE FORECAST IS
BOUND TO CHANGE AS THE EVENT NEARS AND ADDITIONAL DATA BECOMES
AVAILABLE TO LOOK AT. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATED FORECASTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

[TexasStooge]

The National Weather Service has enlarged the ICE STORM WARNING to areas along and west of a Sherman, Denton, Fort Worth, Granbury, Stephenville, and Comanche Line through Sunday.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THEN CONTINUE TO
FALL OVERNIGHT TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING BY EARLY
MORNING. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 30S THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BEGIN LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS.
TRAVEL IN THESE AREAS IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. IF TRAVEL IS
ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY...KEEP AN EXTRA BLANKET...FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED. AT HOME...
MAKE SURE THAT YOU HAVE PLENTY OF NON-PERISHABLE FOOD ITEMS...
WATER...AND EXTRA BLANKETS IN ANTICIPATION OF EXTENDED POWER
OUTAGES.

AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL MAKE TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for the eastern half of the DFW Metroplex as well as Paris, Cleburne, Sulphur Springs, Hillsboro, Meridian, and Waxahachie.

NWS Forecasts:

DALLAS/FORT WORTH
Tonight: 31°F
Saturday: 31°F | 29°F
Sunday: 30°F | 24°F
_____________________________________________________________

AMARILLO
Tonight: 15°F
Saturday: 21°F | 13°F
Sunday: 21°F | 7°F
_____________________________________________________________

LUBBOCK
Tonight: 28°F
Saturday: 30°F | 22°F
Sunday: 26°F | 14°F
_____________________________________________________________

WICHITA FALLS
Tonight: 26°F
Saturday: 29°F | 23°F
Sunday: 28°F | 18°F
_____________________________________________________________

AUSTIN
Monday: 39°F | 27°F
Tuesday: 38°F | 27°F
Wednesday: 41°F | 25°F

[jeff]

Ice Storm likely over SE TX Monday through Wednesday.



Preparations for extended very dangerous driving, power outages, and sub-freezing temps. should be taken this weekend.



Will cut straight to it this afternoon as the latest guidance is coming in very wet with quite high QPF amounts which will result in widespread icing next week. Front is through much of NW TX with temps in the teens over the panhandle and surging toward Dallas at this time. Front should enter northern counties late Saturday and press through SE TX during the day Sunday. Still tough to call timing in metro Houston, but I would expect the front to drop through Matagorda Bay before going through Houston. Temps. will fall 20-30 degrees with the front passage and fall into the low 40’s and upper 30’s by late Sunday. Freezing line progresses southward and reaches northern counties late Sunday and moves into the I-10 corridor by Monday mid-morning and to the coast Monday evening.



Precip/P-type:



Significant accumulation of ice and sleet is becoming likely…potential for serious impacts and very dangerous driving.



Will onset freezing rain northern zones early Monday and progress it southward during the day reaching the I-10 corridor late Monday. Expect multiple disturbances to pass overhead in the SW flow aloft Mon-Wed keeping high chances of rainfall through the period. Temps. fall into the upper 20’s Monday night and will hover between 28-32 through Wednesday with widespread precip.



I am very concerned with the accumulation potential as the models are showing quite a bit of QPF over the area. Will broadbrush widespread .25 to .75 inch of glaze all areas at this time and hit the areas north of I-10 with up to 1.0 inch (may need to be closer to 1.5 inches or higher should the latest model runs verify).



Concern will turn to the power infrastructure and vegetation as ice accumulation grows and expect failures of both to begin as early as Tuesday



I think we can pretty much forget any kind of surface travel late Monday through early Thursday of next week as temps. hover below freezing allowing for little to no melting and no recovery via sanding operations on the roadways.



Expect Winter Storm Watches to be issued Saturday evening and likely will need Ice Storm Warnings at some point.

[TrekkerCC]

Has the front slowed? Earlier reports said that our "Winter Storm Watch" would begin @ 6 and I just noticed that it has now been pushed to "Winter Storm Watch" beginning at midnight tonight . . .

The front (wind shift) should be coming through in the evening hours. However, the really cold air should come in about midnight/morning hours.

[Brent]

Well good luck everyone. Ice sucks and ya'll can keep it.

[Portastorm]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
348 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
ANALYSIS OF SFC AND SAT DATA SHOWS COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM BEING
DRIVEN BY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF STRETCHED ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. THERE ARE TWO SHOTS OF COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
FIRST IS ALREADY IN NORTHERN TEXAS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
THESE STORMS. PRECIP TOTALS COULD REACH 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

SUN THE SECOND BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN. THIS IS THE ARCTIC
AIR WHICH IS COMING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MODELS STILL SHOW
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE THIS FRONT. THE WRF/NAM IS
FASTER AND THE TREND FROM THE GFS IS TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTION,
SO I DECIDED TO SPEED THINGS UP A BIT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRE-FRONTAL VALUES.

MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY ON THE WINTER WEATHER.
FREEZING RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY STARTING MON MORNING
AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD WITH THE COLD AIR. A CHANCE OF FROZEN PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID-DAY TUE. TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN. WE WILL CONSIDER ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF TEXAS BY
WED EVENING AND TAKE ALL THE WINTER PRECIP WITH IT, BUT TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

*****************

So what are they seeing in New Braunfels that I'm (and others) aren't, besides the GFS model??

They think the front will take 24 hrs to make from north Texas to ... say ... Llano and Burnet and Williamson counties? That would mean the front would be slowing down to about 5 mph. I don't see it.

I had hoped for something a little more perceptive from my local NWS office but I guess it's the same old, same old.

[Stratosphere747]

Great disco Jeff.

Important piece of info that Jason/Jschlitz has talked about before with CF's and highlighted in Jeff's disco, areas like Matagorda will see the push of the front before areas of Houston do.

Could be a rough 3/4 days for a good bit of the state....

[aggiecutter]

The biggest forecast bust will be in NE Texas. The front has already passed through Fayetteville, FT.Smith Arkansas and McAllister in SE Oklahoma. This tells me that the cold air is tracking to the east much, much faster than expected. Normally, in situations like this, the cold air reaches Dallas a good 24hrs before it reaches the above locations. Because of its density the air normally trecks a lot faster south than east. This time it is propagating both east and south. This could be devastating news for NE Texas with QPF's of 2-4 inches between now and Sunday night. It looks like Interstate 30 between Texarkana and Dallas could be an ice skating rink by Sunday morning.

Current Temperatures:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/ustemp.gif

[cheezyWXguy]

front just passed through me...winds really blowin out of the north and the temp just easily dropped 10 degrees

[double D]

Well Portastorm, at least our local NWS lowered the highs substantially from yesterday and they are "trying" to move in the right direction. I'm getting a little concerned about Saturday as the temperatures for Central Texas are likely too warm they have a 70 percent of rain.

[TrekkerCC]

The biggest forecast bust will be in NE Texas. The front has already passed through Fayetteville, FT.Smith Arkansas and McAllister in SE Oklahoma. This tells me that the cold air is tracking to the east much, much faster than expected. Normally, in situations like this, the cold air reaches Dallas a good 24hrs before it reaches the above locations. Because of its density the air normally trecks a lot faster south than east. This time it is propagating both east and south. This could be devastating news for NE Texas with QPF's of 2-4 inches between now and Sunday night. It looks like Interstate 30 between Texarkana and Dallas could be an ice skating rink by Sunday morning.

Current Temperatures:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/ustemp.gif

Don't tell this to NWS Ft. Worth Office, they have the eastern metroplex with a Winter Storm Watch (which I expect will eventually...grudgingly become a Ice Storm Warning) with the western metroplex (and counties north and south) under the Ice Storm Warning. I think the whole metroplex will be under the gun. Of course, this is my amateur opinion.

[Portastorm]

Well Portastorm, at least our local NWS lowered the highs substantially from yesterday and they are "trying" to move in the right direction. I'm getting a little concerned about Saturday as the temperatures for Central Texas are likely too warm they have a 70 percent of rain.

They are ... they are ... got to give them that credit.

I really think the Hill Country will see freezing temperatures by Saturday evening and the icing will begin in your neck of the woods. Right now, I'm thinking the Austin metro area is in the 40s after frontal passage and will slip to near freezing late Sunday afternoon or early evening ... and then our troubles begin.

[southerngale]

Huge differences for highs from LCH NWS for Beaumont and the forecast just put out by local KFDM.

NWS..

Sunday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. South wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Sunday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 39. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest.

M.L.King Day: Periods of rain, mainly after noon. High near 49 (KFDM = 34). North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Monday Night: Periods of rain. Low around 32. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 43 (KFDM = 32). North wind around 15 mph.

Tuesday Night: A chance of freezing rain or rain. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday: A chance of freezing rain or rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46 (KFDM = 36). Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 31.


KFDM:




Can't be both!!

[Stratosphere747]

The front has seemed to slow down from yesterday. While moving faster than most of the NWS forecasters were showing, not as fast as many of us thought. And noted by some, they are catching up.

CTX and SE to ETX better hope that the front does indeed slow its progress. Moisture profiles are just to good....

[TexasStooge]

front just passed through me...winds really blowin out of the north and the temp just easily dropped 10 degrees

Same story in my area.

[Stratosphere747]

Kelly,

I have to assume that is Greg and co. Very impressed from his discussions from this tropical season.

Looks just like what David Paul forecasted earlier this morning. Lets hope they both bust...