TX Winter WX Thread #6 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[Portastorm]

NWS San Angelo getting a little more savvy to what's going on ... this is a portion of their statement issued a little after noon:

.SHORT TERM...
NOW FOR THE WINTER STORM. GIVEN THE BETTER PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT..FELT PRUDENT TO EXTEND THE WINTER STORM WATCH FARTHER SOUTH
INTO SAN ANGELO...BRADY...AND SAN SABA. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE
TRICKY DOWN TO THE SOUTH...AND EXPECTING MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THAN ANYTHING ELSE...BUT SINCE FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IS SO RARE DOWN HERE...FELT A WATCH WAS PRUDENT.

FARTHER NORTH...EXPECT TO HIT FREEZING MARK AT SWEETWATER AND
ABILENE BY SUNSET OR A LITTLE AFTER. MAY NOT HIT THE FULL 1/4 INCH
NEEDED TO VERIFY THE ICE STORM WARNING TONIGHT...BUT WITH PERIODS
OF FREEZING RAIN FALLING INTO SUNDAY...WILL LIKELY HIT CRITERIA
EVENTUALLY.

[double D]

What is a little scary is that the models trended back to more precip behind the front instead of sweeping all the moisture out of the way. I hope that later model runs will not show more precip as this is already becoming a dangerous situation.

[gboudx]

These threads need to be archived for future artic airmasses.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Porta, sleet/snow I can handle. Ice? No.

Well the good news for you ... if there is any ... is that the 12z Euro seems to keep the bulk of the precip from the central part of the state and further south after Monday. Y'all may dry some up there ... but heck, after what may be coming ... you won't need any more ice!!!

Be careful buddy ...

Hey Portastorm,

What's coming my way down here in Corpus ???

I'm wraping my outdoor exposed pipes on Saturday. Are my neighbors going to think I'm wacky?

[Kelarie]

Yep, save them and then send them to the tv mets so they can see what is really gonna happen....

[Portastorm]

Porta, sleet/snow I can handle. Ice? No.

Well the good news for you ... if there is any ... is that the 12z Euro seems to keep the bulk of the precip from the central part of the state and further south after Monday. Y'all may dry some up there ... but heck, after what may be coming ... you won't need any more ice!!!

Be careful buddy ...

Hey Portastorm,

What's coming my way down here in Corpus ???

I'm wraping my outdoor exposed pipes on Saturday. Are my neighbors going to think I'm wacky?

If history repeats ... you will get 6 inches of snow and ice and I will get cloudy and cold!

[double D]

Yep, save them and then send them to the tv mets so they can see what is really gonna happen....

You have a good point Kelarie....Sometimes I wonder if some of the tv mets look at any information before going on air, or do they just peek at the NWS site and say it back to the public.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Porta, sleet/snow I can handle. Ice? No.

Well the good news for you ... if there is any ... is that the 12z Euro seems to keep the bulk of the precip from the central part of the state and further south after Monday. Y'all may dry some up there ... but heck, after what may be coming ... you won't need any more ice!!!

Be careful buddy ...

Hey Portastorm,

What's coming my way down here in Corpus ???


I'm wraping my outdoor exposed pipes on Saturday. Are my neighbors going to think I'm wacky?

If history repeats ... you will get 6 inches of snow and ice and I will get cloudy and cold!

Rather drive in the snow than ice. Seriously, does it look like we could have a big event here according to Euro. I was looking at a loop of the GFS from this site http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/i ... ?model=gfs and it shows us having some sort of frozen precip from Monday till Friday. That would be another historic event for sure.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Portastorm,

The old timers from NWS Brownsville need to get a hold of their succesors and slap them around a little. They are very unconcerned sounding in their afternoon AFD. I suppose the Arctic air is just going to stop on the King Ranch?

FXUS64 KBRO 121928
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
145 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST. THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOW THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING ABOVE 70 PERCENT UP TO 7 THOUSAND FEET THEN 40
TO 50 PERCENT ABOVE THAT. THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE GULF WILL
CAUSE FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE
TO WARM AIR ADVECTION. BRO SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED A PRECIP
WATER OF 1.05 AND A K-INDEX OF -13. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING CAUSING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER MONDAY MORNING IT
SHOWS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE 70 PERCENT ALL THE WAY UP TO 30
THOUSAND FEET. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE
TO THIS MOISTURE INCREASE. COOLER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN ITS WAKE THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

[Portastorm]

Judging from what I saw from the 12z Euro and the 12z GFS today ... yeah, if you guys are anywhere near freezing from Monday to Thursday ... it could get pretty bad down there. A good flow of moisture over the coastal bend for sure.

[Portastorm]

Yep, save them and then send them to the tv mets so they can see what is really gonna happen....

You have a good point Kelarie....Sometimes I wonder if some of the tv mets look at any information before going on air, or do they just peek at the NWS site and say it back to the public.

The old "rip and read" eh?!

I think we need to be fair with the NWS offices though. We have several of them statewide (Amarillo, Lubbock ... San Angelo is coming on board, too) that have done an excellent job in my opinion for this developing event. Their jobs are only going to get more complicated and difficult in the days ahead as forecasts remain challenging, the media is calling nonstop, and constant weather statements are being issued.

[double D]

Yep, save them and then send them to the tv mets so they can see what is really gonna happen....

You have a good point Kelarie....Sometimes I wonder if some of the tv mets look at any information before going on air, or do they just peek at the NWS site and say it back to the public.

The old "rip and read" eh?!

I think we need to be fair with the NWS offices though. We have several of them statewide (Amarillo, Lubbock ... San Angelo is coming on board, too) that have done an excellent job in my opinion for this developing event. Their jobs are only going to get more complicated and difficult in the days ahead as forecasts remain challenging, the media is calling nonstop, and constant weather statements are being issued.

Also those three NWS sites have a little more experience with winter weather events than the rest of the NWS offices around the state. I really feel for these guys right now and for the most part are doing a great job around the state....It's not everyday that we have this kind of situation.

[Portastorm]

I noticed that the CPC has portions of central, north, and northeast Texas under a threat for "significant icing" for Jan. 15-17:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... hreats.gif

[KatDaddy]

The models look interesting for the Houston Area however I will wait and see. There have been many times it was near freezing and sleet/snow was forecasted. In fact inches of snow were forecasted back in the 80s and nothing but a cold rain materialized. The Arctic front has a long way to go before it moves off the TX Coast. We may just get another round of cold rain for Houston-Galveston. Now the Austin, Waco, Dallas, Lufkin, and College Station may very well see a major ice storm.

[MetSul Weather Center]

Live video coverage of the ice storm from KOCO-TV in Oklahoma City:

http://www.koco.com/video/10731634/detail.html

Meanwhile Los Angeles metro in California got snow:

http://www.metsul.com/secoes/visualiza. ... _texto=494

[Aquawind]

Man you Texans are freakin on a cold front. We love them down here in S Florida. Nice to southerners exited about winter weather... I come from Minnesota so this is nuttin special for me.. Enjoy the change as it will revert back to heat soon enough..for most.

[HarlequinBoy]

I noticed that the CPC has portions of central, north, and northeast Texas under a threat for "significant icing" for Jan. 15-17:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... hreats.gif

I wouldn't trust that map too much. It includes the Mid South and I haven't seen any forecasts that suggest that we should expect any wintry precipitation. Just heavy rain and then cooler weather.

I wouldn't mind a bit of sleet or snow though.

[gboudx]

I was watching one of those live streams from OK just now, and the met showed how this system is coming 3 waves, today, tomorrow and Sunday. Each one has the Austin to Dallas area under icy precip 100% of the time.

[MetSul Weather Center]

I was watching one of those live streams from OK just now, and the met showed how this system is coming 3 waves, today, tomorrow and Sunday.

Yes, they mentioned "three rounds" of ice blasts. On CNN website:

"This is a one-in-maybe-15- to 25-year event," CNN severe weather expert Chad Myers said Friday of the forecast freezing rain, sleet and snow. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, up to St. Louis, Missouri, could see "devastating consequences," Myers warned Friday. "You won't be able to get in or out of St. Louis tomorrow."

[TrekkerCC]

Current special weather image from the NWS Ft. Worth Office seems to show their current thinking:

http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/specialwx.php

Out in the northwest, NWS expects the most (1/2"-1" of ice) to the northwest of the DFW metroplex, the western metroplex and counties north/south (1/4"-1/2" of ice), and in Dallas and counties north/south (1/4"). It looks like NWS will likely update the Winter Storm Watch to a Warning for the western counties (Denton, Tarrent, etc) in the afternoon update.