TX Winter WX Thread #6 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

#261 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 1:01 pm

Check out the headline on Dallasnews.com - I think they are on another planet:

D-FW may avoid ice, snow
LAYNE SMITH / DMN
Ominous predictions of sleet and ice have tapered off, but North Texans still should be prepared for rain and falling temperatures this weekend. A cold front is expected to strike the region by late afternoon Friday that will cause temperatures to drop rather quickly, meteorologists said.

#262 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 1:03 pm

jschlitz wrote:Check out the headline on Dallasnews.com - I think they are on another planet:

D-FW may avoid ice, snow
LAYNE SMITH / DMN
Ominous predictions of sleet and ice have tapered off, but North Texans still should be prepared for rain and falling temperatures this weekend. A cold front is expected to strike the region by late afternoon Friday that will cause temperatures to drop rather quickly, meteorologists said.

This must come from the "Dewey Defeats Truman" school of journalism! :lol:

Very lousy reporting!

#263 Postby **Tireman4** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 1:06 pm

Wow. The Chicago Tribune reference. Very good Porta. I admire your knowledge of history.

The Chicago Tribune had gone so far as to print “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN” on election night as its headline for the following day. A famous photograph shows Truman grinning and holding up a copy of that newspaper. Part of the reason Truman's victory came as such a shock had to do with as-yet uncorrected flaws in the (emerging) craft of polling public opinion

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dewey_Defeats_Truman

weatherrabbit_tx · #264 Postby **weatherrabbit_tx** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 1:13 pm

jschlitz wrote:Check out the headline on Dallasnews.com - I think they are on another planet:

D-FW may avoid ice, snow
LAYNE SMITH / DMN
Ominous predictions of sleet and ice have tapered off, but North Texans still should be prepared for rain and falling temperatures this weekend. A cold front is expected to strike the region by late afternoon Friday that will cause temperatures to drop rather quickly, meteorologists said.

they drunk the other kool-aid...... :roll:

#265 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 1:15 pm

Tireman4 wrote:Wow. The Chicago Tribune reference. Very good Porta. I admire your knowledge of history.

The Chicago Tribune had gone so far as to print “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN” on election night as its headline for the following day. A famous photograph shows Truman grinning and holding up a copy of that newspaper. Part of the reason Truman's victory came as such a shock had to do with as-yet uncorrected flaws in the (emerging) craft of polling public opinion

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dewey_Defeats_Truman

As a former journalist and as a lifelong history buff, I take that compliment highly! Thanks Tireman4!

#266 Postby **TrekkerCC** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 1:17 pm

JenBayles wrote:Has forward movement of the front slowed this morning? Been watching Bowie, TX since 8:00 a.m. - front had passed Wichita Falls, but still not to Bowie area yet. Any thoughts?

The front should pass the Bowie, TX area soon, if it hasn't yet. The front may have slowed a little bit, but that is from eyeball observation. Wxman57 may be able to give us a better fix on the frontal speed.

#267 Postby **Tireman4** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 1:19 pm

You are welcome. Remember at that time, the Nielsen and Harris polls were in their infancy. Public opinion polls were just scratching the surface.

Yankeegirl · #268 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 1:25 pm

If this has already been posted I am sorry... This is the first statement I have seen from Houston... From the NWS....

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
541 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-130000-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-
HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
541 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

...ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD BE
SPARED THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE COLD.

THE PAST SEVERAL COMPUTER FORECAST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE COLD AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE AND PRODUCING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...THIS PRECIPITATION COULD
BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME REGARDING LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE MOST AT RISK OF THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION AND TIMES THAT IT
MIGHT OCCUR...IF IT EVEN ENDS UP OCCURRING AT ALL. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXCEPT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT
SOME POINT BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AREAS BOUNDED
BETWEEN BRENHAM...LIVINGSTON...ANAHUAC AND EDNA LOOK TO HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS MAY WANT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO SHELTER SENSITIVE PLANTS AND MAKE ANY
OTHER PREPARATIONS NECESSARY TO WINTERIZE YOUR PROPERTY. WE WANT TO
STRESS THAT THIS IS A DEVELOPING SITUATION AND THE FORECAST IS
BOUND TO CHANGE AS THE EVENT NEARS AND ADDITIONAL DATA BECOMES
AVAILABLE TO LOOK AT. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATED FORECASTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$

#269 Postby **TrekkerCC** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 1:31 pm

I want to post up a relevant portion of the NWS Forecast Discussion. This is the aviation update, but I am posting it up as it contains useful information.

NWS Ft. Worth Office wrote:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1210 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

.18Z AVIATION UPDATE...COMPLEX FORECAST SITUATION FOR THE AREA
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. ARCTIC FRONT IS HEADED
SOUTH...CROSSING THE RED RIVER NOW. WILL MAINTAIN FROPA/WIND SHIFT
AROUND 22Z IN THE METROPLEX...WITH AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT.

Now, 22z is 4pm CST. So the Ft. Worth office expects the wind shift (frontal passage) to occur at around 4pm. The really cold air will filter in a few hours afterwards.

HouTXmetro · #270 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 1:41 pm

Front has just blew threw Gainsville Texas, reporting NW winds.

Abilene reporting Temp drops and N winds.... This front Is on the March!!!!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/

#271 Postby **Tireman4** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 1:44 pm

Here it COMES!!!!!!!!!!!!! :cheesy:

double D · #272 Postby **double D** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 2:04 pm

The temp. in Amarillo is 18 and now 15 in Dalhart. I post that because I think it is a good indication of what might come our way. This air mass is much, much colder than most NWS were forecasting and now they are playing catch up.

Btw, Denver NWS has a high of 10 but they have been stuck on 0 for most of the day. Be ready to bundle up the airmass is very cold.

#273 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 2:07 pm

so this is going to be a major ice event? if so how far south?

#274 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 2:09 pm

fact789 wrote:so this is going to be a major ice event? if so how far south?

fact, would advise you to read the last few pages of the board. This info has already been posted.

#275 Postby **TrekkerCC** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 2:13 pm

For those that are interested, NWS Norman Office has sent up a special 18z sounding balloon.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/analysis.sound.html

#276 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 2:18 pm

Geez ... just took a quick peak at the 12z EURO run.

You DO NOT want to know about it ... unless you like a steady stream of ice/sleet/snow for 3-4 days. :eek:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

I feel like I'm getting to sound like Doomsday Danny or something -- but Iain't making this stuff up, folks, just reporting the facts!

#277 Postby **gboudx** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 2:19 pm

Latest from Jeff for DFW. All I can say is......wow.

******************************

NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Dallas and Fort Worth metro area starting at 600pm tonight through Sunday PM

Significant ice storm possible.

Cold arctic front making good progress today and is about 60 miles NW of Fort Worth at this time and pressing SSE at 8-11mph. Front should reach DFW around 600pm and clear the metro areas by 800pm. Temp is 16 at Amarillo with bitter cold air surging into NC TX. Freezing line should reach metro areas after midnight when rain will become freezing rain.

Expect freezing rain mixed with sleet Saturday and Sunday leading to heavy glazing. Winter Storm Watch will likely need an upgrade to Ice Storm Warning for metro areas as ½ to ¾ inch of accumulation is possible. Weight of ice will cause vegetation to buckle and break and power lines to sag and poles to fail.

Forget travel and roads will become completely ice coated with a heavy crusted glaze.

Improvement may not come until Wednesday when temps. attempt to warm back above freezing…until then there is going to be big problems.

#278 Postby **gboudx** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 2:20 pm

Porta, sleet/snow I can handle. Ice? No.

#279 Postby **Tireman4** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 2:20 pm

FYI

Looking at some of the news stations, Oklahoma City was really caught off guard with this storm. Here is a live video stream from KOCO in OK City for those that want to see what we could be dealing with in the next few days.

http://www.koco.com/video/10731634/detail.html

Here are some photos submitted to KFOR also in OKC.
http://www.kfor.com/Global/link.asp?L=222382

#280 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Jan 12, 2007 2:22 pm

gboudx wrote:Porta, sleet/snow I can handle. Ice? No.

Well the good news for you ... if there is any ... is that the 12z Euro seems to keep the bulk of the precip from the central part of the state and further south after Monday. Y'all may dry some up there ... but heck, after what may be coming ... you won't need any more ice!!!

Be careful buddy ... 8-)

TX Winter WX Thread #6 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

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