January 23-31 Idea: Everything is Cold and Dry

[donsutherland1]

And everything is cold and dry,
Day and night earth and sky,
Somehow I just,
Don't believe it.
— Busted

With the eastern sections of the United States (Eastern Seaboard, Midwest, Ohio Valley, Mississippi Valley) finally in the grips of a cold pattern, that region’s snow geese are waiting anxiously for a serving of snow. Yet, in what might seem an even more cruel fate than the blowtorches of December and early January, everything looks to remain “cold and dry” for much of the January 23-31 timeframe. Disbelief, among the snow geese, could be setting in, especially as the best snows either remain offshore or are limited to sections of New England and the lower Mid-Atlantic on account of a broad trough that is likely to predominate.

At least summer is gone and winter is back. Lighter snows are possible in the East (and New England might experience a moderate snowfall at some point). But qpf should be limited, with no events likely to reach 0.50” in the Washington, DC to Boston region.

It should be noted that as had been the case with the 1/16-22 timeframe, the objective analogs are much warmer. In fact, they favor warmth in the East. Their solution is at odds with much of the ensemble guidance and also the pattern that would be suggested with an EPO- pattern. I will not be using them for this outlook. At 312 hours, the NCEP Ensemble mean 500 mb anomalies are forecast to be reasonably similar to those that prevailed on February 5, 1981. The February 3-6, 1981 period saw a cold outbreak that saw low temperatures bottom out in the upper single digits to the teens in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions. That is additional reason, I’m tossing the warm objective analogs.

My thinking for the average temperature anomalies during the 1/23-31 period is as follows:

Average Regional Temperature Anomalies (1/23-31):
Northeast: Below normal
Mid-Atlantic: Below normal
Southeast: Below normal
Great Lakes: Below normal
Northern Plains: Near normal
Central Plains: Somewhat below normal
Southern Plains: Below normal
Pacific Northwest: Above normal
Southwest/Rest of West Coast: Somewhat above normal

For the major cities from Washington, DC to Boston, the 1/23-31 period is likely to feature:

- Nights generally in the teens and 20s, especially from Philadelphia to Boston
- Days mainly in the 20s and 30s in Boston and 30s in New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, DC.
- One or more days with a low temperature of 15° or below is New York City and Philadelphia. Boston might see a reading below 10°. Washington, DC should see one or more low temperatures below 20°.

In the Southeast, Atlanta will likely see highs generally in the 40s with some 50s. Lows should generally be in the 20s and 30s with a few 40s. Elsewhere, Burlington will likely see highs mainly in the teens and 20s. Lows should be in the single digits. One or more subzero lows are likely. Detroit should see several light snow events (< 3” each).

Historic Tidbits: Winter 1820-21

New York City/January 25, 1821: “As it was, the ice remained stationary all day…between Courtlandt Street [Cortland Street] and the City of Jersey [Jersey City]. The mail crossed early in the morning upon the ice; and through the day, hundreds crossed and re-crossed, which has not been the case before since the year 1780, during our revolutionary struggle, when cannon was transported on the ice from this city to Staten Island.”

Source: New York Daily Gazette

New York City/January 26, 1821: “More than a thousand persons crossed the North River [Hudson River]…on the ice, produce of every kind was taken over in sleds, &c., and hundreds were seen skating in the middle of the river.”

Source: New York Daily Advertiser

[ga_ben]

Don,

I always appreciate your posts. They are very informative. What is the possibility that the southern stream will be active during this late January cold period?

Thanks,

ga_ben

[boca]

Don, nice post but S Florida will probably miss out on even cooler weather.

[bob rulz]

Sounds good to me.

[angelwing]

Thank you Don, as always, appreciate your posts!