TX Winter WX Thread #6 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[Ptarmigan]

that is interesting portastorm. Seems like they are really biting into this one.

Houston looks to very well see it's first ice event since '97 on Monday/Tuesday. Going to be interesting and scary for sure.

If that's the case, Houston is going to shut down. I remember the 1997 icestorm. It was something. School was closed for two days.

[Extremeweatherguy]

that is interesting portastorm. Seems like they are really biting into this one.

Houston looks to very well see it's first ice event since '97 on Monday/Tuesday. Going to be interesting and scary for sure.

If that's the case, Houston is going to shut down. I remember the 1997 icestorm. It was something. School was closed for two days.

Well I am not sure if it will equal that storm, but if the models are right...then there is certainly a chance (and even a slight chance a few places could see worse). At this point though, 3-5 days out, things are still not set in stone. Exact temperatures, precip. rates and precip. coverage will be the deciding factors in the end.

We will know more once we within a day or two of the event.

[Ptarmigan]

Well I am not sure if it will equal that storm, but if the models are right...then there is certainly a chance (and even a slight chance a few places could see worse). At this point though, 3-5 days out, things are still not set in stone. Exact temperatures, precip. rates and precip. coverage will be the deciding factors in the end.

We will know more once we within a day or two of the event.

Predicting winter weather in Houston is fairly difficult. It is worth keeping an eye on what happens next week.

[D_bird]

Hello everyone, I am new to posting on the board, but I've been roaming on here for several months reading.

I am located about 40 miles northwest of Ft. Worth, right in between Bridgeport and Boyd.

With the front being ahead of schedule, how much concern is there for the area just to the north and west of the DFW metroplex for a significant icing event?

[Extremeweatherguy]

good video on khou.com = http://www.khou.com/sharedcontent/Video ... 5&catId=35

shows video of the '97 ice storm as well.

[CaptinCrunch]

Amarillo TX, Stillwater OK, and Bartlesville OK have not reported a temp since 9:53pm, but from Pampa TX to Watonga, OK to Ponca City, OK Municipal Airport, front has gone thru with temps in the mid 30's.

I expect front to be close to Red River by 7am Friday and into the D/FW area by 7pm.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1056 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007

CURRENT BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF. RAIN
NOW LOOKS TO BEGIN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z THIS MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN MAJOR DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE TIMING
OF THE FROPA. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF ETA AND NGM
GUIDANCE. TSRA LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY CLOSER TO FROPA...AND THIS
IS THE PREVAILING WEATHER GROUP AFTER 22Z.

[southerngale]

Hello everyone, I am new to posting on the board, but I've been roaming on here for several months reading.

I am located about 40 miles northwest of Ft. Worth, right in between Bridgeport and Boyd.

With the front being ahead of schedule, how much concern is there for the area just to the north and west of the DFW metroplex for a significant icing event?

Welcome to Storm2k, D bird! I'm glad you joined.

I'd answer your question, but it would simply be a guess. Perhaps someone a little more knowledgable will answer it for you.

[D_bird]

Hello everyone, I am new to posting on the board, but I've been roaming on here for several months reading.

I am located about 40 miles northwest of Ft. Worth, right in between Bridgeport and Boyd.

With the front being ahead of schedule, how much concern is there for the area just to the north and west of the DFW metroplex for a significant icing event?

Welcome to Storm2k, D bird! I'm glad you joined.

I'd answer your question, but it would simply be a guess. Perhaps someone a little more knowledgable will answer it for you.

Thanks for the welcome. It is going to be a very interesting next couple of days here trying to figure out just what we're going to get and how much of it up here.

I think at some point we'll get freezing rain, but I don't know when that changedover will happen and after it does change over how much of ice we will get. I believe the front will pass thru this county in the 8am-12pm time frame tomorrow morning. I have a feeling we're right on the edge of the expected significant ice accumulations that prompted the ice storm warnings for Wichita Falls and that surrounding area to our northwest.

edited 3:40 am to reflect NWS Ice Storm Warnings:

In North Texas the following counties are now under an Ice Storm Warning: Montague, Cooke, Young, Jack, Wise, Stephens, Palo Pinto, Eastland, or the counties to the north and west of the metroplex.

From NWS Ft. Worth... ICE STORM WARNING

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST PART OF NORTH
TEXAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE
TODAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING VERY COLD
AIR TO ALL OF NORTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BELOW FREEZING IN NORTHWEST PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN ALREADY IN
PROGRESS TONIGHT WILL TURN TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE WARNING
AREA...WHICH IS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF AN
EASTLAND...MINERAL WELLS...DECATUR...GAINESVILLE LINE. TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA.

[Extremeweatherguy]

NWS forecast for Spring, TX now looks even colder!

M.L.King Day: A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 39.

Monday Night: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Also with 50% rain chances lasting for 2 and a half days, we could be in big trouble when it comes to winter weather.

BTW, here is the "interesting" part of their latest discussion:

THE REST OF THE FCST CAN BE PRETTY MUCH BE DESCRIBED AS A LOWER
CONFIDENCE NIGHTMARE. STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL STILL ARRIVE IN SE
TX BUT TIMING IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
SLOWED IT DOWN EVEN FURTHER - NOW PUSHING IT OFF THE UPPER TX
COAST MONDAY MORNING. NAM IS FASTER. WILL LEAVE CURRENT FCST TIMING
THAT WE HAVE GOING (OFF THE COAST SUN EVENING). REASONING IS THAT
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE KNOWN TO BE SLOW WITH THE TIMING OF THESE
SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIRMASSES. THIS ONE SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY
UNMODIFIED CONSIDERING THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S.. CANNOT
UNDERSTAND WHY THIS BOUNDARY WOULD STALL BETWEEN DALLAS AND
MADISONVILLE FOR 24+ HOURS AS IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE 00Z
GFS. SO...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A HUGE TEMP BUST SUN NIGHT IF
THE GLOBAL MODELS DO ACTUALLY VERIFY. COOR WITH OUR NEIGHBORS AND
CAME UP WITH ABOUT THE SAME THINKING SO I GUESS WE WON`T BE
ALONE...

NOW FOR THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FCST: PRECIP AND WHAT
VARIETY. EXPECT SHRA/TSTMS TO MOVE THRU ALONG THE INITIAL FRONT.
THEN OVERRUNNING PRECIP IS FCST BY SEVERAL MODELS AS THE TEMPS
PLUNGE MON NIGHT-WED. BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS NRN
2/3 OF THE AREA COULD SEE A MIX OF -RA/FZRA/SLEET LATE MON NIGHT.
ALL OF SE TX...EXCEPT THE NEAR IMMEDIATE COAST...COULD SEE THE
SAME TYPE VARIETY TUES MORNING, TUES NIGHT AND WED MORNING
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE PRECIP. RIGHT NOW MODELS ARE
FAVORING THE SOUTHERN 2/3 TUE-WED MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED
GRIDS AND FCST BASED ON THIS THINKING. DID NOT GO AS HIGH A
GUIDANCE POPS DUE TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT BUT DO
WANT TO BEGIN HITTING IT A LITTLE HARDER CONSIDERING THE UPCOMING
EXTENDED HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PLAN ON ISSUING AN SPS LATER IN THE
SHIFT.

AGAIN...WANT TO STRESS THAT FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW END. BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME HEADACHES IF ALL OR EVEN PART OF THIS WINTERY
MIX MATERIALIZES - ESP THE FZRA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...BEARS WATCH
CONTINUES

[Extremeweatherguy]

David Paul on KHOU once again gives a great forecast this morning! He called for low to mid 30s for Highs Mon - Wed.

However, the same CANNOT be said for Channel 2 (KPRC2). Their morning guy, Anthony Yanez (I think that is his name) has a pretty bad forecast out. They are STILL showing highs into the mid to even upper 40s at times early next week. Is this guy just not looking at the models or paying attention to the NWS forecast? I guess the one bit of good news is that they at least use the word "sleet" in their forecast. The bad thing though is that he also says it might snow. HA! This just proves he is very out of touch. As AFM said yesterday, the chance of snow is almost non-existant with this system due to a shallow airmass, so I do not know what Yanez is seeing. Also, notice he also only shows a 20% precip. chance next Tuesday and then no chance next Wednesday. Once again..is he even looking at the models or paying attention to the NWS? ( http://images.ibsys.com/hou/images/weat ... 40x480.jpg )

ABC13 also has a warm forecast out (though a bit cooler than KPRC2), and it doesn't even look like they show sleet or ice anywhere on it (and they only show a 30% precip. chance as well).

Basically, as of this morning, KHOU certainly has the best forecast. KPRC2 and ABC13 on the other hand have a big bust potential for high temperatures next week and avid watchers of those channels will be very surprised when they suddenly watch those numbers get lowered 5-10 degrees on the day of the event.

I am just very concerned that some people will not understand the scale of this potential problem. If you watch KPRC2 or ABC13 this morning, then you would think this is only a slight chance issue and that it will likely not cause many problems. This simply is not the case though. I think people need to know that this has the potential to turn into a 24-36+ hour event and that ice could become a major issue next week. I am not saying it is time to go crazy with the forecast and panic everyone, but I think something more than just a 20% chance of "sleet" on Tuesday night is warranted at this time.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Did you see the JB post this AM, EWG?

[Portastorm]

Did you see the JB post this AM, EWG?

I saw it ... it is entirely devoted to Texas and the "2-3" ice/snow threats that lie ahead for us.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Did you see the JB post this AM, EWG?

yes I did see that. Seems very interesting indeed.

(For those who couldn't see it: He thinks a low could develop in the western gulf and that by Tues-Thurs of next week big problems could develop with ice.)

It was also interesting that he said to expect up to 2-3 more southern-stream events in the coming weeks. I guess we will see..

[Extremeweatherguy]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
541 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-130000-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-
HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
541 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

...ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD BE
SPARED THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE COLD.

THE PAST SEVERAL COMPUTER FORECAST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE COLD AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE AND PRODUCING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...THIS PRECIPITATION COULD
BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME REGARDING LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE MOST AT RISK OF THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION AND TIMES THAT IT
MIGHT OCCUR...IF IT EVEN ENDS UP OCCURRING AT ALL. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXCEPT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT
SOME POINT BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AREAS BOUNDED
BETWEEN BRENHAM...LIVINGSTON...ANAHUAC AND EDNA LOOK TO HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS MAY WANT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO SHELTER SENSITIVE PLANTS AND MAKE ANY
OTHER PREPARATIONS NECESSARY TO WINTERIZE YOUR PROPERTY. WE WANT TO
STRESS THAT THIS IS A DEVELOPING SITUATION AND THE FORECAST IS
BOUND TO CHANGE AS THE EVENT NEARS AND ADDITIONAL DATA BECOMES
AVAILABLE TO LOOK AT. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATED FORECASTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

[Portastorm]

I was happy to see mention in the HGX discussion where the forecaster said he/she couldn't understand why the front would hang up for 24 hrs between Dallas and Madisonville this weekend. Something many of us have wondered as well.

Unfortunately the folks at EWX continue to hug the GFS with their forecast and comments. I'm afraid they're not going to "get it" until the bridges start freezing over late Saturday here in Austin.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I was happy to see mention in the HGX discussion where the forecaster said he/she couldn't understand why the front would hang up for 24 hrs between Dallas and Madisonville this weekend. Something many of us have wondered as well.

Unfortunately the folks at EWX continue to hug the GFS with their forecast and comments. I'm afraid they're not going to "get it" until the bridges start freezing over late Saturday here in Austin.

The Corpus NWS said the same thing as HGX and acknowledged their take.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
453 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007


.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THRUSDAY)...ONE MORE VERY MILD DAY IN S
TX ON SUN...THEN DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE WX AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
BLASTS THRU THE CWA LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 00Z GFS
HAS AGAIN SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT UP...NOW SHOWING IT
NOT ENTERING THE CWA UNTIL WELL AFTER 06Z MON AND NOT OFF THE
COAST UNTIL AFTER 12Z. GLOBAL MODELS OFTEN DO NOT HANDLE DENSE
ARCTIC AIRMASSES WELL...AND LIKE HGX CAN NOT UNDERSTAND WHY FRONT
WOULD HANG UP FOR SO LONG TO OUR NORTH. IN ADDITION FRONTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE IN S TX TEND TO ACCELERATE THRU THE CWA DURG THE NIGHT.
SO AFTER COORD WITH HGX...DECIDED TO GO WITH A FASTER SOLN (CLOSER
TO 18Z DGEX AND 00Z NAM). A QUICK GLANCE AT TH 06Z GFS REVEALS IT
IS FASTER THAN THE 00Z SOLN. XPCT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...WITH STRATIFORM RAIN DVLPG BEHIND THE FRONT
ON MON.

HAVE UNDERCUT THE 00Z GFS MOS HIGHS ON MON CONSIDERABLY GIVEN THE
QUICKER SOLN WE ARE GOING WITH. TEMPS MIGHT NOT CLIMB MUCH AT ALL
ON MON (IF ANY) GIVEN THE STRONG ARCTIC CAA TAKING PLACE. WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE REQ FOR THE COASTAL BEND AND GALE WARNINGS FOR
THE GULF.

BEYOND MON THE FORECAST BECOMES A MESS...AND CONFIDENCE BECOMES
LOW. GFS AND CANADIAN BOTH SHOWING POST FRONTAL PRECIP MON NIGHT
THRU WED MORN...WITH A HEAVIER BAND POSSIBLY OVER OUR NRN CWA AND
THE EWX/HGX SRN CWAS. PLACEMENT OF PRECIP AND TIMING OF HIGHER
POPS THIS FAR OUT IS VERY HARD...SO HAVE GNRLY BROAD-BRUSHED POPS
IN. THE BIGGER CONCERN THOUGH WILL BE PRECIP TYPE. AM BEGINNING TO
BECOME MORE CONFIDENT THAT A WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR AT LEAST IN THE
NRN AND WRN CWA LATE MON NIGHT THRU WED MORN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN ALONG AN NORTH
OF A LRD-VCT LINE LATE MON NIGHT...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN FM VICTORIA TO TILDEN VERY EARLY TUE MORN. THE RAIN
SLEET WILL LIKELY CONT INTO TUE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS LINE...
WITH ALL LIQUID ALONG THE COAST.

TUE NIGHT AND WED MORN BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC. APPEARS IF PRECIP
DOES CONT INTO THESE PERIODS THAT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL
OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ERN
SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE A RAIN
AND SLEET MIX. THEN WED MORN 00Z SOUNDINGS HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR NW AND FAR NRN AREAS OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...06Z SOUNDING HAVE BACKED OFF FROM SNOW POSSIBILITY AND
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF THIS.

ALL IN ALL...A COMPLICATED FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. WILL BE
UPDATING THE HWO AND ISSUING AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE UPCOMING
WX SCENARIO ACROSS S TX.

[TexasStooge]

The National Weather Service has upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to an ICE STORM WARNING for the Northwestern portion of North Texas through Sunday.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
315 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST PART OF NORTH
TEXAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE
TODAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING VERY COLD
AIR TO ALL OF NORTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BELOW FREEZING IN NORTHWEST PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN ALREADY IN
PROGRESS TONIGHT WILL TURN TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE WARNING
AREA...WHICH IS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF AN
EASTLAND...MINERAL WELLS...DECATUR...GAINESVILLE LINE. TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA.

TXZ091-092-100>102-115-116-129-122100-
/O.UPG.KFWD.WS.A.0001.070114T0000Z-070115T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFWD.IS.W.0001.070113T0600Z-070115T0000Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-EASTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...GRAHAM...
OLNEY...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...BRECKENRIDGE...
MINERAL WELLS...CISCO...EASTLAND...RANGER...GORMAN
315 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
SUNDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED AN ICE
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF AN EASTLAND...MINERAL WELLS...DECATUR...GAINESVILLE
LINE. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS WARM MOIST AIR OVERRIDES A SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIRMASS. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST TO FREEZE LATE
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...ICE WILL ALSO ACCUMULATE ON TREES AND POWER
LINES...LIKELY RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY.

AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL MAKE TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

NWS Forecasts:

DALLAS/FORT WORTH
Today: 65°F | 38°F
Saturday: 40°F | 33°F
Sunday: 35°F | 25°F
_____________________________________________________________

AMARILLO
Today: 31°F | 11°F
Saturday: 22°F | 13°F
Sunday: 20°F | 7°F
_____________________________________________________________

LUBBOCK
Today: 46°F | 28°F
Saturday: 30°F | 22°F
Sunday: 26°F | 14°F
_____________________________________________________________

WICHITA FALLS
Today: 56°F | 27°F
Saturday: 29°F | 23°F
Sunday: 28°F | 18°F
M.L. King Day: 30°F | 17°F

While this warning doesn't include the DFW metroplex yet, major caution should be exercised. If you don't have to go anywhere this weekend, don't.

[HouTXmetro]

Leading Axis of the front is south of Lubbock (NE winds) and is knocking on Wichita Fall's door.

http://www.weatherforyou.com/maps/temperature.shtml

[wxman57]

Leading Axis of the front is south of Lubbock (NE winds) and is knocking on Wichita Fall's door.

http://www.weatherforyou.com/maps/temperature.shtml

The Arctic front just busted down the door in Wichita Falls. It's 42 now. Interesting to see how the latest ETA MOS temps did (considering the ETA tends to do a bit better than GFS with these fronts):

06Z ETA MOS Temps for SPS:
06Z -- 59 (actual 61)
09Z -- 58 (actual 60)
12Z -- 57 (actual 59)
14Z -- 56 (actual 42) (interpolated MOS fcst)
15Z -- 56
18Z -- 50
21Z -- 49
00Z -- 42

So ETA MOS temps are already 14F too warm for SPS. It's snowing right across the border in SW Oklahoma now in Lawton with 32 degrees. According to ETA MOS, Lawton is SUPPOSED to be in the mid 40s now.

We're going to see the above blown forecasts over and over again for the next few days. NWS offices will be struggling to keep up with the bitter cold. Dallas probably won't be above freezing for days.

Looking at DFW MOS temps, ETA MOS has DFW above 45 until late Sunday afternoon. Hmm, anyone want to bet me that it won't be below 45 by this afternoon?