TX Winter WX Thread #6 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[Portastorm]

From the evening update NWSFO Fort Worth:

"OTHERWISE...RAISED WARM SECTOR POPS (RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG/E OF I-35 SUNDAY)...AS CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LINGER OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. COULD SEE SOME
HEAVY RAINS OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST SAT/SUN.

00Z MODELS RUNS ONLY SLOWLY OOZING IN AND PER CURRENT INDICATIONS
AND UNCERTAINTY...SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE CONFIGURATION/TIME PERIOD
OF CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH (FTWWSWFWD). LATE SUN NIGHT/MONDAY
COULD BE INTERESTING FOR WINTER PRECIP THE BRAZOS VALLEY FROM
PALESTINE TO TEMPLE...IF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND BETTER MOISTURE
REMAIN OVER THAT AREA WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC SURGE ARRIVING. THIS
WILL BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FCSTS."

From Austin/San Antonio:

"INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
STILL SHOWING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY BECOMING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMING
TREND FORECAST TO END SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS AREA
OF MUCH COLDER AIR COMES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
AS LARGE SCALE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE GATE FOR COLDER AIR WILL OPEN QUICKLY WITH THE COLDER
DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY. SHOWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS LOW
MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SUDAY NIGHT. FORECASTS SHOW TROF
CONTINUING WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH FAST
MOVING S/W TROFS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. KEPT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INDICATED A CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND THEN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY. SHOWED PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THURSDAY IN WAKE OF 500 HPA TROF MOVING FROM THE
CENTRAL U.S. TO THE MS VALLEY. INCREASING CLOUDS IS EXPECTED LATE
NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN."

[Extremeweatherguy]

CW39 forecast:

Monday:
High - 45
Low - 30
70% chance of rain turning to sleet/frz. rain late

Tuesday:
High - 37
Low - 26
40% chance of sleet and frz. rain

Wednesday:
High - 46
Low - 33
Partly cloudy

One of the better TV forecasts in the area right now..

[gboudx]

Hey, does anyone in the Dallas area/ any pro mets think that the ice storm warning will be extended in to north Dallas area, such as plano? The previous AFD seems to show the possibilitie...If yes, when?

I've only seen where the NWS has cautiously mentioned they "might" have to expand the WSW, but there was no mention of an Ice Storm Warning. Cheezy, I'm really thinking this is something we won't know until it's almost right on top of us. Tomorrow should be interesting. Between this weather and my excitement over watching my Saints destroy the Iggles on Saturday night, work isn't looking too productive tomorrow.

[TrekkerCC]

From the evening update NWSFO Fort Worth:

"OTHERWISE...RAISED WARM SECTOR POPS (RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG/E OF I-35 SUNDAY)...AS CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LINGER OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. COULD SEE SOME
HEAVY RAINS OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST SAT/SUN.

00Z MODELS RUNS ONLY SLOWLY OOZING IN AND PER CURRENT INDICATIONS
AND UNCERTAINTY...SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE CONFIGURATION/TIME PERIOD
OF CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH (FTWWSWFWD). LATE SUN NIGHT/MONDAY
COULD BE INTERESTING FOR WINTER PRECIP THE BRAZOS VALLEY FROM
PALESTINE TO TEMPLE...IF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND BETTER MOISTURE
REMAIN OVER THAT AREA WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC SURGE ARRIVING. THIS
WILL BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FCSTS."

Apparently, the Ft. Worth office is buying into the current NAM trend to keep temperatures above freezing in the Metroplex during the precipitation period. It will be interesting to see if the front brings the really cold air behind it quickly into North Texas.

[Stratosphere747]

Most of the Houston area stations look like Ch 39.. In fact KHOU has Houston Monday at 38/32 with freezing rain.

[HarlequinBoy]

About what time is the front forecast to stall?

[Stratosphere747]

Good update about the progession of the front out of Lubbock.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
939 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007

.UPDATE...
THE FIRST SURGE OF COLD AIR IS LOCATED ALONG AN ENID OK TO
CANADIAN TO BORGER TO DALHART LINE AS OF 9 PM. THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS IS
A COUPLE HOURS AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS THINKING SO HAVE INCREASED
ITS SOUTHWARD SPEED WITH IT REACHING THE CHILDRESS AREA BETWEEN 7Z
AND 9Z(1-3 AM) AND INTO THE CENTRAL CWA ALONG A GUTHRIE TO LUBBOCK
TO MULESHOE LINE AROUND SUNRISE. WE HAVE ADJUSTED LOWS TONIGHT
DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS. CLOUD COVER IS
NOT LAGGING THE COLD FRONT BY TOO MUCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE ITS SLIDE SOUTHWARD LAGGING
THE BOUNDARY BY AN HOUR OR 2. BELIEVE THIS LOW CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY FROM MIXING VERY FAR TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW SO HAVE ADJUST HIGHS DOWNWARD. HIGHS TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD STEADY OR EVEN DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT SHOULD
ALLOW THE DEEPER COLD AIR TO FILTER IN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
BEGINS. THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE EVENT
WITH POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT ICING ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST
OF AN ASPERMONT TO POST TO LUBBOCK TO TULIA LINE. WITH THIS IN
MIND WE HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTER STORMS WATCH.

[double D]

Most of the Houston area stations look like Ch 39.. In fact KHOU has Houston Monday at 38/32 with freezing rain.

It looks like a lot of t.v. mets and the NWS seem to be on the same page with the freezing rain in Houston. I have to give them credit for at least acknowledging the situation and giving the public a heads up.

[double D]

First special weather statement from San Antonio/Austin:

...CHANGING WEATHER PATTERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CAUSING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

AFTER HIGHS WARMING TO THE 70S...COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AS A MIX OF ARCTIC AND POLAR AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP COLD TEMPERATURES
FOR THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...THAT WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HIGHS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF COLD RAIN MONDAY...
AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH PART
OF THE AREA TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
SEVERAL NIGHTS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
LATE NEXT WEEK TO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON
THESE EVOLVING JANUARY 2007 WEATHER PATTERNS.

[Stratosphere747]

Yeah Double D. It may not be reflected in their specific numerical forecasts, but they are talking about it. Some have updated their sites, while all of them are discussing it. Enough to get the water cooler chat going and get people informed. Good thing going into the weekend.

Still looks like they are all to slow with the front, which of course could have major impacts on the eventual forecast. Quite a bit of waiting and see till the last minute...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Most of the Houston area stations look like Ch 39.. In fact KHOU has Houston Monday at 38/32 with freezing rain.

yeah, the KHOU website forecast looks great. However, their on-air forecast was not. Mario Gomez (in his 6pm broadcast on KHOU) called for a high of 49 next Monday and 45 next Tuesday.

[Stratosphere747]

Try him tonight. They may not reflect the better numerical forecast this evening, but I'm sure he and the others will continue to talk about the increasing threat...

[Kludge]

I'd give him a big kiss if AFM would get on and tell us the whole story.

You can rest assured that if AFM knew what would happen he would've chimed in already. The fact that we haven't heard from him tells me that the upcoming forecast is not a no-brainer.

{{ let me go ahead and apologize for that. It's just that I had to spend the day in College Station, and I'm a little ragged-out right now. On the bright side, if that doesn't get him to respond, nothing will }}

OK...here I am...guess I've been goaded into responding

Actually, I've been very busy at work and very busy with church. I basically have two jobs and a family...and do a lot of writing in my off time...so I have not had a lot of chance to write much lately. However, I'm at a stoping point now so I can comment.

Well...what I think is it's going to get cold. This isn't a classic arctic outbreak by any means. There isn't any 1055mb high busting down the plains, overwhelming the pattern and there will be a lot of modification with the air. It's not super dense or super cold....so while the models aren't going to have a great handle on it...they aren't as messed up as they would be with a 1060mb high that had -30C temps in Montana. With the overrunning that should occur, we should see ample amounts of evap cooling on Monday and Tuesday and this should keep the air from modifying too much.

I do expect some ice issues / sleet ...especially over the Central / Southern Texas areas (south of San Antonio). The actual line is very iffy right now...all depends on the location of the upper low.

As far as Houston proper...expect ice issues...especially north and west sides....sleet is more likely as it may or may not get below freezing while raining. Snow is pretty much out of the question as there is a tremendoes warm tongue aloft...maxing out at about 5C when the rest of the atmosphere is prime for sleet/freezing rain. To me...looks like sleet is a good bet Monday night and Tuesday morning. Some slick driving conditions on Tuesday for sure. I expect highs in the Houston Metro area on Tuesday to be in the mid-upper 30's...depending on overrunning. The more overrunning...the lower the temps.

While I apologize for any disparaging comments, I don't apologize for prodding you into commenting here. Thanks...!

To be very candid, your major value on this board (at least to me) is that you seem knowledgable....and you have the advantage of annonymity as compared to the tv "meteorologists". If I may speak for the others...the glory of this board is that you can give us your gut feel about what will happen, and even go out on a limb and risk being the outlier, without worrying of losing your job.

We don't appreciate it when folks look at models and "interpret" them for us...but we do appreciate it when someone uses their experience and training to tell us what they feel will actually happen.

Please continue to interject during this developing situation...!

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
944 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO PUSH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. HAVE PUSHED COLD FRONT PASSAGE FARTHER
SOUTH THAN AFTERNOON PACKAGE. OVERALL HEADLINES LOOK OK AT THIS
TIME. LATEST WRF-NAM SUGGEST THAT ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...BUT AS MAIN SYSTEM
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE
WILL BE MORE LIKELY. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FA WILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE ICE STORM WARNING.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Mario Gomez' evening forecast is still warm. He still has 49 for Monday and 45 for Tuesday. This is a good 3-7 degrees warmer than the NWS.

The good news though is that he says "some sleet" in his forecast. However, those temperatures need to be lowered some.

My main question though is why are the TV and internet KHOU forecasts so different? there is currently an 11-degree difference between the two sources for Monday's high.

[CaptinCrunch]

How funny, as I watch the local channel 8 weather forecast Pete has the cold front across central OK by 7pm Friday night. But as you can see from NWS NORMAN

FRONT IS BEGINNING TO PUSH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE

It's already there and pushing through.

[GeneratorPower]

CaptainCrunch, if that's true, that's an amazing lack of attention to detail.

EDIT: Please change the above spelling of CaptainCrunch to CaptinCrunch. (There's some attention to detail for you.)

[cheezyWXguy]

With the given fact that the front is ahead of schedule, I believe that the forecast is a bit too high, as highs are forecast to be in the upper 30's to near 40...IMO, thats a bit high...Id expect highs at about 34 sunday and probably around that monday and tuesday...even the GFS is starting to show a return of winter precip to NTX sunday (hour 84 and 90)...at least i think sunday...either that or its way too slow

[Extremeweatherguy]

0z GFS is now showing precipitation hanging around through Wednesday in coastal and SE Texas.

[CaptinCrunch]

CaptainCrunch, if that's true, that's an amazing lack of attention to detail.

I have alot of respect for WFAA (8) weather staff, but sometime their computer models just don't make since. They still call for front to enter D/FW area by 7am Saturday morning. Front has already gone thru Pampa TX according to Perry Lefors Field, and front shows to gone thru Enid OK as well.