TX Winter WX Thread #6 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[gboudx]

Winter Storm Watches now up in portions of the Texas panhandle.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/

Looks like the Lubbock office is waiting to issue a WSW, due to model inconsistency in the track of the system. But that seems to apply to a lot of NWS offices in the northern parts of Texas.

[Stratosphere747]

Look for Dallas to throw one up this afternoon....

[CaptinCrunch]

Winter Storm Watches now up in portions of the Texas panhandle.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/

Looks like the Lubbock office is waiting to issue a WSW, due to model inconsistency in the track of the system. But that seems to apply to a lot of NWS offices in the northern parts of Texas.

Most of OK is now under some kind of Winter Weather Advisory. I stated earlier I wound.nt be suprised to see NWS FTW issue a WWA by Saturday morning, but looking at current temps in KS and CO a WWA may be issued as early as Friday morning.

[Stratosphere747]

This afternoon Capt....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1121 AM CST THU JAN 11 2007

.UPDATE...
WILL NOT ISSUE A MIDDAY ZONE UPDATE. WE WILL INSTEAD CONCENTRATE ON
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR FRONTAL TIMING...DEGREE OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN MOVING SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

CURRENT 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE NOT THAT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE
OVERNIGHT RUNS. ACTUALLY THE M12Z NAM SERIES IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
WITH FROPA ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...THEY ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH I DO NOT AGREE WITH.

WE ARE CONSIDERING ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

[gboudx]

So what is the NW 1/4 of the DFW CWA? I suspect mostly west of I-35.

[CaptinCrunch]

So what is the NW 1/4 of the DFW CWA? I suspect mostly west of I-35.

Not sure but IMO it is west of I-35 & North of I-20

[Stratosphere747]

I'm sure because of the conflict in the possible timing, they are limiting the areas (If they indeed issue a WWW which is probable this afternoon.) Most likely they will mention that in this afternoons disco along with the possibilities of issuing one for the whole area.

[Yankeegirl]

I am glad to see that the NWS has put the chance of rain and sleet back in the forecast for early next week. I am still going to buy some firelogs just in case..... and pray the power doesnt go out and I am without a computer, I might just go insane!!

[gboudx]

From the WFAA weather site:

The winter storm that will bring us the coldest air of the season is still moving in our direction. The cold front associated with this system should pass through Dallas/Fort Worth around 9 a.m. Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of this system Thursday night and continue on and off through Saturday. Temperatures will plummet through the day Saturday and by daybreak Sunday sleet and freezing drizzle will be possible. Stay tuned for further updates.

9am Saturday sound about right CC?

[HouTXmetro]

Wind flow indicates the Front passage into the Oklahoma Panhandle is imminent!!

http://www.agriculture.com/ag/weather/i ... nav=windsp

This front is racing South!!!

[Johnny]

Dang! This arctic air is spilling south very quickly! Is their anything in front of it to slow it down? If not, then don't y'all think that it could hit the northern portions of southeast, Texas by tomorrow or tomorrow night?

[TrekkerCC]

From the WFAA weather site:

The winter storm that will bring us the coldest air of the season is still moving in our direction. The cold front associated with this system should pass through Dallas/Fort Worth around 9 a.m. Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of this system Thursday night and continue on and off through Saturday. Temperatures will plummet through the day Saturday and by daybreak Sunday sleet and freezing drizzle will be possible. Stay tuned for further updates.

9am Saturday sound about right CC?

It sounds about right. Saturday morning/afternoon for sure. NWS still has my area as rain (no mention of frozen precip). The NWS forecast may change later today/tonight if the front continues to barrel down the plains.

[HouTXmetro]

Dang! This arctic air is spilling south very quickly! Is their anything in front of it to slow it down? If not, then don't y'all think that it could hit the northern portions of southeast, Texas by tomorrow or tomorrow night?

That's what I'm thinking...Would like to know what's going to slow it down If it's reaching the Panhandle already??????????

[gboudx]

From the WFAA weather site:

The winter storm that will bring us the coldest air of the season is still moving in our direction. The cold front associated with this system should pass through Dallas/Fort Worth around 9 a.m. Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of this system Thursday night and continue on and off through Saturday. Temperatures will plummet through the day Saturday and by daybreak Sunday sleet and freezing drizzle will be possible. Stay tuned for further updates.

9am Saturday sound about right CC?

It sounds about right. Saturday morning/afternoon for sure. NWS still has my area as rain (no mention of frozen precip). The NWS forecast may change later today/tonight if the front continues to barrel down the plains.

As fast as this air is moving southward, who knows, maybe tomorrow night.

[gboudx]

BTW, isn't this about the time that AFM chimes in to let the air out of the balloon?

[wall_cloud]

Dang! This arctic air is spilling south very quickly! Is their anything in front of it to slow it down? If not, then don't y'all think that it could hit the northern portions of southeast, Texas by tomorrow or tomorrow night?

That's what I'm thinking...Would like to know what's going to slow it down If it's reaching the Panhandle already??????????

nothing...models do terrible on this type of situation.

[southerngale]

Dang! This arctic air is spilling south very quickly! Is their anything in front of it to slow it down? If not, then don't y'all think that it could hit the northern portions of southeast, Texas by tomorrow or tomorrow night?

Sure there is...ask wxman57.

From a few days ago...

Forecasting the path of a developing TC is quite different from observing -40 to -60 air in Canada driving southward toward the lower 48. It's not like the air is going to stop or take a different path. It's coming down lee of the Rockies and there's not much more than barbed wire fences to stop it.

I love that quote.

[Stratosphere747]

I'm sure the afternoon discos will take note of the quicker movement of the front.

Things are becoming a bit more interesting.

[Portastorm]

Cold fronts tend to slow down movement during the night hours so perhaps that will slow down the momentum some ... but then tomorrow morning it's back to the races, I suspect.

It will be humorous to compare forecasts issued tomorrow afternoon to the ones in play right now.

[Stratosphere747]

It's now through NW Kansas, so still a bit of time before making the OK/Tx panhandle.