Texas winter wx thread#5 - big changes on the way eventually

[cheezyWXguy]

Does anybody have an opinion on what this event means for NTX because Im clueless..

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFS MOS is actually buying into this ice threat too. Between hour 120 and 144 it shows sleet/freezing rain for IAH.

[WhiteShirt]

EWG, when would we see an ice threat according to the models you're looking at?

[rsdoug1981]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/g ... c_ptyp.gif

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/g ... c_ptyp.gif

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/g ... c_ptyp.gif

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/g ... c_ptyp.gif

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/g ... c_ptyp.gif

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/g ... c_ptyp.gif

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/g ... c_ptyp.gif

[southerngale]

EWG (or anyone who knows), can you post all the relevant models (the ones we're actually paying attention to) and the approximate time they run....well, the time it completes enough to get an idea on what's going on? I know some of them, but it'd be nice to see them with their running times all in one spot.

I'm curious to see if other models are going to show any frozen precip again.

[rsdoug1981]

GFS and Nam can be found here:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

They are posted at 4AM, 10AM, 4PM, and 10PM

Here's everything else including Euro, UKMET, Canadian, etc. (No NOGAPS)

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

I especially like this site for the Euro's 850mb temps.

Edited to add: GFS ensembles can be found here:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ens.html

And one more good one:

http://weather.unisys.com/index.html

[southerngale]

Thanks. I think the Euro comes out about 1 or 2am our time. Do you know what time the Canadian, UKMET, NOGAPS, and GFS Ensembles run?

[rsdoug1981]

Thanks. I think the Euro comes out about 1 or 2am our time. Do you know what time the Canadian, UKMET, NOGAPS, and GFS Ensembles run?

Actually, SG, if you want to see the models when they first come out, go here:

http://www.independentwx.com/tropical

This page links you to the model sites themselves. The models here are in raw form. The links I posted earlier take a while to update as they must change the raw model data into nice graphic form.

The Euro, on it's main page, rolls out around 1:30AM and PM. The Canadian rolls out around midnight and noon. And I know that the GFS ensembles are updated when I wake up

[HouTXmetro]

MSNBC forecast temps indicates the front will push through Dallas on Friday and Houston Saturday....

Dallas
Fri: Hi 69 Lo 31
Sat: Hi 60 Lo 28 (FYI no way in -ell it's gets up to 60, suspect forecast)
Sun: Hi 35 Lo 25

Houston
Sat: Hi 74 Lo 38
Sun: Hi 66 Lo 34 (are they expecting the front to retreat? )
Mon: HI 48 Lo 32

http://weather.msn.com/tenday.aspx?weal ... c:USTX0617

[southerngale]

I think I'll pass on the raw form...I like the nice, pretty graphics.
Thanks though.

I was thinking the Canadian came out about midnight, but wasn't sure...thanks. I can read the maps a little, but hopefully someone who can analyze them better than I will post the results.

[southerngale]

Interesting, funny, and quite honest discussion by Fort Worth/Dallas NWS this morning..

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
319 AM CST THU JAN 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...
STILL NO CONSENSUS BY THE MODELS. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
THE COLDER NAM AND WARMER GFS...THINKING THAT THE GFS IS STILL
STUCK ON BRINGING A WAVE ACROSS THE FRONT TO HOLD UP THE COLD
AIR...AND AIR THAT COLD WILL NOT BE HELD UP BUT WILL HEAD ON SOUTH
MORE LIKE THE NAM IS FORECASTING. GFS HAS LESS OF A WAVE THAN
YESTERDAY/S RUN SO IT MAY BE MOVING MORE TOWARDS THE NAM/S
SOLUTION. GFS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FOR NEXT WEEK IS STILL
POOR...IT BRINGS A MONDAY AFTERNOON DISTURBANCE OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY WHEN YESTERDAY IT HAD THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF.

AS IS USUAL...WE ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE WINTER WEATHER AND
MODEL ACCURACY IS NOT WHAT WE NEED TO PIN DOWN THE FORECAST. THE
NAM HAS US COLDER BUT DRIER...GFS IS WETTER BUT WARMER. FLIP A
COIN...ROLL THE DICE...TAKE YOUR CHANCES. FORECASTING WINTER
WEATHER HERE IN NORTH TEXAS IS A LOT LIKE POLITICS...IT/S BEST TO
JUST STAY ON THE FENCE AS LONG AS POSSIBLE BEFORE COMMITTING TO
ANYTHING. 84

[Portastorm]

From NWS Amarillo's discussion this morning:

"CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS INITIAL COLD FRONT ALREADY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS MORNING."

*************
How many of us here having been saying the GFS didn't have a good handle on the timing of this front?!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Houston NWS has re-introduced winter precipitation into the forecast!

Here is the latest forecast for Spring, TX:

M.L.King Day: A chance of sleet or rain. Cloudy, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: A slight chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Probably still a bit too warm for highs, but they are certainly getting closer.

BTW, here is the AFD as well:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
356 AM CST THU JAN 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
AS THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL USHER COLD ARCTIC
AIR INTO SOUTHEAST TX EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST...RETURN FLOW TO CONTINUE
TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEA FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX TONIGHT
AS WELL AS FRI/SAT NIGHT. NOT MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP UNTIL SAT NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT BARRELS INTO NORTH TX
EARLY SATURDAY AND APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SAT
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARDS THE DRIER 00Z NAM SOLUTION THAN THE 00Z GFS. AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TX LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING...RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UP UNTIL THIS
MORNING...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST TX SUN AFTERNOON BUT INSTEAD HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE FORWARD SPEED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE GFS NOW BRINGING THE
FRONT TO THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. WITH THE MOMENTUM OF THE
ARCTIC AIR...BELIEVE THE GFS IS NOT HANDLING THE SHALLOW AIRMASS
VERY WELL SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE PREVIOUS TIMING OF PAST MODEL
RUNS. IN ADDITION...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SWING BACK AND FORTH WITH
OVERRUNNING DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH
THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z GFS BOTH PROGGING A 500MB TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO
MONDAY AND BOTH PROGGING CONSIDERABLE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF TEXAS BEHIND THE FRONT...BELIEVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS WARRANTED FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE TOUGHER QUESTION IS THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AND
WITH GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATING NEARLY SATURATED AIR
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALOFT AND NEAR THE
SURFACE...THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WITH
LIGHT RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...LIGHT RAIN/SLEET ELSEWHERE. WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA MON NIGHT/TUES MORNING...MORE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY THAN MIXED. AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE DIMINISHES TUES NIGHT...THE CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO SOUTHEAST TX
WEDNESDAY.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the latest map of current temps. across the US: http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag226.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

David Paul's KHOU11 forecast this morning:

Monday = 35

Tuesday Morning = 29

Tuesday = 35

sleet/frz. rain threat of 20% throughout that period. He also even said his forecast could be too warm and he thinks the computer models are wrong about the frontal timing and the amount of cold air. He, instead, thinks the front will likely arrive Sunday morning and that it could be colder than advertised in the models.

[Portastorm]

Just finished reading the forecast discussions from Oklahoma. NWS Norman expects the front now to clear their state by Friday night. Trust me, this arctic front is not going to take TWO days to sink through Texas. I expect the front to reach the coast by late Saturday evening or early Sunday morning.

Seen this too many times over the years now ... just watch ... the bulk of the forecasts will be playing "catch up" and doing so in a very quick manner tomorrow into Saturday. I really wouldn't be surprised to see icing beginning in central Texas on Sunday now as overrunning precip continues throughout the day. And it's going to catch a lot of people by surprise, unfortunately.

Meanwhile, the morning NCEP ensembles continue to advertise dramatic cold impacting the southern Plains and Texas throughout the next 7-10 days.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... ation.html

[wall_cloud]

You must warn them, Portastorm!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just finished reading the forecast discussions from Oklahoma. NWS Norman expects the front now to clear their state by Friday night. Trust me, this arctic front is not going to take TWO days to sink through Texas. I expect the front to reach the coast by late Saturday evening or early Sunday morning.

Seen this too many times over the years now ... just watch ... the bulk of the forecasts will be playing "catch up" and doing so in a very quick manner tomorrow into Saturday. I really wouldn't be surprised to see icing beginning in central Texas on Sunday now as overrunning precip continues throughout the day. And it's going to catch a lot of people by surprise, unfortunately.

Meanwhile, the morning NCEP ensembles continue to advertise dramatic cold impacting the southern Plains and Texas throughout the next 7-10 days.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... ation.html

I agree with you portastorm. HPC maps seem to show the arctic boundary already trying to spill south:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfcnps.gif

I bet it will probably have reached the coast by noon Sunday at the latest.

[aggiecutter]

The morning run of the Ensembles and the 0zEURO still have the front north of the Texas Panhandle-Northern Oklahoma border on Sunday. I've linked the morning Ensembles below, but still don't have a link to the 0z EURO, yet. I saw it on Accuweather.

Morning Ensembles on Sunday:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... 2_usbg.gif

[TexasStooge]

Go ahead and lock this thread as another one was already started.