Texas winter wx thread#5 - big changes on the way eventually

[Portastorm]

The latest from JB tonight is that he thinks there will be snow and ice problems "darn close" to the Gulf coast on Tuesday.

Just thought I would let you guys know.

True ... but in all fairness, he also said last weekend that this coming weekend the Texas DOT would need snow and ice equipment. The way its looking, I'm not sure they'll need anything other than a strong battery and drivers who have a warm cup of coffee with them!

Don't get too excited just yet ...

[ajurcat]

I never post but read all the time. I'm familiar with the flip-flops but I have a real question regarding plants. I live in NW Houston, my house faces north. In 2001 my FIL passed away and we put a scheffelera (sp?) from his funeral outside by the front door in the flower bed. That plant is now over 10' tall (it grew out of it's pot). How do I protect it or should I not worry?
Thanks

[wxman57]

I never post but read all the time. I'm familiar with the flip-flops but I have a real question regarding plants. I live in NW Houston, my house faces north. In 2001 my FIL passed away and we put a scheffelera (sp?) from his funeral outside by the front door in the flower bed. That plant is now over 10' tall (it grew out of it's pot). How do I protect it or should I not worry?
Thanks

Make sure you water it thoroughly before the first freeze (Sunday, if it doesn't rain a good bit). It's way too big to cover, I'm afraid. Keeping it watered will make it harder for it to freeze, but if we get down into the teens it may not survive. You could put out a 150 watt flood light at the base of the tree and shine it up. Might add a little warmth. I'm thinking of trying that with my orange trees Wed-Fri. Kind of like a small smude pot. If you do cover any plants, make sure you take the covers off during the day when it's above freezing, particulrly if there is any sunshine.

[JenBayles]

Just a few that fit what's going on:

You got it!

[richtrav]

JS

LOL, you're gonna save those majesties come hell or high water! That procedure should work, it's a little overkill but better safe than sorry. The most critical thing you don't want to do is have plastic come directly into contact with the plant's surface, always have some sort of material between them.

The old Canary dates in Central Texas have been through many a bad winter, including '83 and '89. They are generally hardy in San Antonio but a number were lost in Austin back then. They will defoliate below 20F for an extended period but large established plants should have no trouble recovering from 15-18F. The only thing that sucks with date palms is that it takes them up to two years to fully recover their former glorious crown of 100+ leaves. They have not been defoliated in San Antonio or Houston in 16 years but got hit about 4 or 5 times back in the nightmare decade of the '80s

[JenBayles]

I never post but read all the time. I'm familiar with the flip-flops but I have a real question regarding plants. I live in NW Houston, my house faces north. In 2001 my FIL passed away and we put a scheffelera (sp?) from his funeral outside by the front door in the flower bed. That plant is now over 10' tall (it grew out of it's pot). How do I protect it or should I not worry?
Thanks

Is it underneath eaves or even any kind of tree cover? Anything to block the wind? Actually, I have covered plants up to 15-20 ft tall. It's a pain, but worth it if you really want to keep them. Making sure the roots are well-watered is the biggest issue since wet roots don't freeze and die as fast as dry roots do. The lightbulb suggestion is a really good one, but will only buy you a few degrees at best. Again, how badly do you want to keep that scheffelera?!

If you can't find, or afford a commercial row cover material, two or three layers of bed sheets will work. You can even use bungee cords to keep the wind from ripping them off. If you use a plastic tarp over the sheets, it must be removed when temps go much above freezing (basically when the sun hits it) or the plant will just fry.

I've been gardening in Houston since 1980, so feel free to PM me if you like with further plant questions.

[KatDaddy]

Well so much for the Banana Plants. Whats left is histoy. I chop them down every Winter so they start freash in the Spring. They are the most cold weather sensitive plant in this area as far as I know. Quite fitting since they 90% water. Make me wonder how solid they become at 28F.

[JenBayles]

From Austin/San Antonio, Special Weather Statement:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 PM CST WED JAN 10 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-110500-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
633 PM CST WED JAN 10 2007

...CHANGING WEATHER PATTERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

INCREASING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND.
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CAUSING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

AFTER HIGHS WARMING TO THE UPPER 60S TO 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS A MIX OF ARCTIC AND POLAR AIR
SPILLS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP
COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...THAT MAY
LIMIT DAYTIME HIGHS SOME. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL WORK IN PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
WESTERLIES...SIGNALING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING RIDGE OF COLD AND
DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SEVERAL NIGHTS OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN NEXT
WEEK.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON
THESE EVOLVING JANUARY 2007 WEATHER PATTERNS.

$$

[arizonasooner]

I used to put the large Christmas lights on my garden when we would get cold temps in PHX... Kept tomatoes alive through the winter for a fabulous February harvest....

Fabric sheets are the best for any plant - but be sure to remove them in the morning when temps are above 32... I was hesitant to use plastic because the cold can burn right through it to kill any leaf that is contacting the plastic. Lost a couple of poinsettias that way.

I am going to be challenged in coming years to keep my Italian Cypresses alive in Tulsa. They are good down to about 15-20F or so, but we go below that every year, so who knows how they will do...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Seems like weather.com is starting to get more on board with the cold. Earlier today they showed one day next week in the upper 40s and the rest of the days in the 50s (WAY too warm). Now, however, they have upped it to 3 days in the 40s and one day in the lower 40s. Though this is still likely a bit too warm, it will help the general public (who usually use weather.com as a first source when online) get better mentally prepared as to what is coming...

Here is the latest 10-day forecast for Spring TX: http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/s ... nav_sports

BTW: Weather.com is also showing rain/snow showers for this area on Monday night.

[gboudx]

Looking at temps up north, it appears the arctic air has crossed the border and is spilling into Montana. Glasgow went from a high of 42 today, to a temp of 11. I notice that Minot, ND is next expecting to get above 0 for a couple of days too.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looking at temps up north, it appears the arctic air has crossed the border and is spilling into Montana. Glasgow went from a high of 42 today, to a temp of 11. I notice that Minot, ND is next expecting to get above 0 for a couple of days too.

Looks like you are right:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/ustemp.gif

That means we are now ~3 days out from it reaching us.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I like CW39 news now. I just watched their met and he seemed to give a much more reasonable forecast than what I have seen from others.

He is calling for a high of 39 next Tuesday with a 20% chance of rain/snow. He also had a low of 26 in the forecast by Wednesday.

Over the other local TV mets, he definitely seems to be the best with this situation. He is actually swaying from the NWS and giving a forecast that is much more likely to verify.

[jasons2k]

EWG, I am on the same page this time. That looks most reasonable to me and close to what I'm thinking...at least for now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest 0z GFS WAS faster at the beginning with the front (having it all the way to central TX by Saturday afternoon) and then it went crazy (...again ). It magically tries to then lift the front way back north and by Sunday afternoon it is back into the panhandle (which would NOT happen in the case of such a dense, cold, shallow airmass. There is just no way this thing would be retreating after already making it to central TX).

In reality, the front will likely keep going and reach us by Sunday morning. The GFS will probably eventually get this right by Saturday evening (if even then). Until that time, however, I think the operational GFS is looking too crazy to use for frontal timing. We can still get an idea about precip. next week though, so I will have more on that when it is available.

[wxman57]

Latest 0z GFS WAS faster at the beginning with the front (having it all the way to central TX by Saturday afternoon) and then it went crazy (...again ). It magically tries to then lift the front way back north and by Sunday afternoon it is back into the panhandle (which would NOT happen in the case of such a dense, cold, shallow airmass. There is just no way this thing would be retreating after already making it to central TX).

In reality, the front will likely keep going and reach us by Sunday morning. The GFS will probably eventually get this right by Saturday evening (if even then). Until that time, however, I think the operational GFS is looking too crazy to use for frontal timing. We can still get an idea about precip. next week though, so I will have more on that when it is available.

Typical MRF/GFS error, develop a lee-side low and move the Arctic air back to the north as a warm front. I've seen that error with just about every single Arctic outbreak since I've been watching closely in the late 1970s. Of course, back then we only had 48-hr models. Here's the 00Z GFS frontal position for 6pm Saturday (thick blue line I drew in):

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/GFS.gif

00Z NAM front for the same time:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/NAM.gif

Both have the front south of College Station at 6pm Saturday. Not really that bad - until they then move it back to the north as a warm front.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well folks, looks like the 00z GFS has continued the 18z GFS precipitation threat next week (except now it is worse)! It actually now shows a bullseye of heavier precip. affecting the area on Monday evening, and there is a good chance it could be of the frozen variety. This is NOT good news (unless it happens to be snow..which looks less likely than sleet/frz. rain at this time):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

The run then continues the winter precip. over the area through Tuesday:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _132.shtml

If this were to verify, then a wintery-type storm looks once again possible.

BTW: for precip. types check out this link..

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... 4hr156hr16

[wxman57]

:eek:

Well folks, looks like the 00z GFS has continued the 18z GFS precipitation threat next week (except now it is worse)! It actually now shows a bullseye of heavier precip. effecting the area on Monday evening, and there is a good chance it could be of the frozen variety. This is NOT good news (unless it happens to be snow):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

The run then continues the winter precip. over the area through Tuesday:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _132.shtml

If this were to verify, then a wintery-type storm looks once again possible.

Yeah, I see that. Interesting. I figure it'll have a good handle on things by Monday.

Time for bed!

[Johnny]

Well folks, looks like the 00z GFS has continued the 18z GFS precipitation threat next week (except now it is worse)! It actually now shows a bullseye of heavier precip. affecting the area on Monday evening, and there is a good chance it could be of the frozen variety. This is NOT good news (unless it happens to be snow):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

If this were to verify, then a wintery-type storm looks once again possible. We will have to see what future hours of the run show.

Thanks for the update EWG....much appreciated. What do you think of this latest run wxman57?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Thanks for the updates wxman!

I am sure tomorrow will be an interesting day in seeing how the models progress. However, as you said...we will likely not know the full story until Monday (once it is actually either happening or not ).