Texas winter wx thread#5 - big changes on the way eventually

[Tireman4]

I agree with the discussion about post-frontal freezing rain chances diminishing, or at least not being a devasting ice storm. Could be a few problems with icy bridges on Monday night and Tuesday. But I think it's looking more likely we'll see a stronger shot of cold air and less of a freezing rain/sleet threat.

I was noting the GFS's forecast of dew points 6-7 degrees BELOW zero by Wednesday. With a clearing sky, decreasing northerly winds, and dew points that low we could see temperatures dip intot he low to mid teens Wednesday night. Might not get much above freezing for Wednesday's high.

Goodness. Reminds me of Raleigh, North Carolina winters. I remember it getting down to 13 degrees in the winter of 1983 in Santa Fe, Texas (17 miles north of Galveston-http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/c ... s/xmas.htm). The bay froze out 8 feet. That was just wicked for us then. In Raleigh, I remember temperatures getting down to 0.

[wxman57]

By the way, current temps in eastern Alaska and western Canada are down as low as -53F. That's some seriously cold air heading south. The weather.com forecast is a joke. It'll be off by 20-30 degrees in places. It's supposed to be a computer program that learns from its mistakes. Has a lot of learning yet to do as far as Arctic fronts. I think there's a great risk of upper teens down to Houston Wed night and Thu night, and a moderate risk of even colder. Time to bring the plants and pipes inside and wrap the pets -- or something like that.

[Yankeegirl]

Get your dogs a bomber jacket!! Its gonna be cold!!

[HouTXmetro]

By the way, current temps in eastern Alaska and western Canada are down as low as -53F. That's some seriously cold air heading south. The weather.com forecast is a joke. It'll be off by 20-30 degrees in places. It's supposed to be a computer program that learns from its mistakes. Has a lot of learning yet to do as far as Arctic fronts. I think there's a great risk of upper teens down to Houston Wed night and Thu night, and a moderate risk of even colder. Time to bring the plants and pipes inside and wrap the pets -- or something like that.

[Tireman4]

Cool. Very cool. We have cats and they are indoor, so I guess they will be ok.

[jasons2k]

I know this isn't a gardening forum - BUT - in case you are interested....this is what the guy over a Teas Nursery told me to do next week to my Majesty Palms (if I have to....):

-Water thoroughly on Friday/Saturday unless the soil is still moist
-Cut all the fronds off
-Spray the entire crown with Cloudcover (or similar product such as Anti-Stress)
-Cover the crown with a sleeping bag (or a cotton fabric wrap for taller palms)
-Wrap the sleeping bag/cover with bubble wrap
-Cover the entire concoction with a plastic tarp and stake it down on all sides

If it's going to get REAL cold, additional measures such as wrapping Christmas lights in the wrap, placing hot water or a heat light under the tarp, etc. can be used.

ALSO - Do not leave the plastic on if temperatures get above 50F or the plant will suffocate and die. Any plastic is temporary, but a traditional cotton or burlap wrap can stay until Spring.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

NWS Corpus Mention POSSIBLE winter precip for next Tuesday evening.

000
FXUS64 KCRP 102111
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
311 PM CST WED JAN 10 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. WINDS HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ARE GENERALLY
BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE HAS ALSO RESPONDED AS DEWPOINTS
WHICH WERE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S THIS MORNING HAVE REBOUNDED
TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND WINDS
NOT DECOUPLING TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT...BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG. MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT OVER THE ERN COUNTIES AS A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL BE MOVING OVER
SURFACE WATER TEMPS OF NEAR 60. AS A RESULT SEA FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS MAINLY FROM PORT
ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARDS SUNSET
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 10Z. THEREAFTER...CEILINGS
WILL LOWER AND PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. CIGS AND VIS WILL BECOME VFR BY 16Z.


&&

.LONG-TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE COASTAL BEND
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 MOVING ACROSS THE COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS...EXPECT
PERIODIC EPISODES OF ADVECTION FOG WILL OCCUR FROM FRIDAY THRU
SATURDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE
AREA BUT SHOULD SEE ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS AFFECT THE COASTAL
PLAINS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY NIGHT AS A 35-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
GULF WATERS SATURDAY THRU SAT NIGHT.

FIRST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY SATURDAY BUT THE FRONT WILL STALL WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN
ADVANCE OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL LEAD
TO PRESSURE FALLS IN WEST TEXAS. GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOW MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND WITH
THE FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTH TEXAS A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY ON
SUNDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS THINKING. KEPT THE LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. BEYOND SUNDAY
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THAT LEAD TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THERE WILL BE LIGHT PRECIP IN THE AREA
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALONG WITH DRIER AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE PRECIP ON MONDAY. BUT THE
12Z ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO COMPARED TO THE GFS MON NGT/TUE. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL PUT
IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. IF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MORE AMPLIFIED
AS THE 12Z UKMET INDICATES...THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR WINTRY
PRECIP OVER THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT SEVERAL CATEGORIES BELOW
GUIDANCE ON TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS DO NOT USUALLY
PERFORM WELL WITH ARCTIC INVASIONS. TEMPS IN THE -50 DEGS F
OVER THE YUKON NEAR 1050MB HIGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE
COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE POLE INTO NORTHWEST CANADA SAT.

89/TMT

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
323 PM CST WED JAN 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS HAVE QUICKLY RETURNED TO THE AREA WITH A LARGE REGION
OF 4-6 MB 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY. THESE WINDS WILL USHER IN GULF MOISTURE IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALLOWING FOR RAPID SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL BY SUNRISE AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND HIGH AND MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE BECOMES DEEP ENOUGH FOR STREAMER SHOWERS
WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS CAP ERODES AND
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE. SUBTLE LIFTING IS EVIDENT
ON THE COMPUTER MODELS...BUT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FAIRLY FAR AWAY
AND WENT WITH THE DRIER NAM SOLUTION FRIDAY. STILL DO EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION...BUT WILL NOT BUY INTO THE LIKELY POPS
ADVERTISED BY THE MAV MOS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ARCTIC AIRMASS IS NOW BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO MONTANA
BEHIND POWERFUL SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA. 1050 MB ARCTIC HIGH
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS FAR SOUTH AS NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ALSO DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHICH IS THE
PRIMARY CULPRIT FOR FRONTAL TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AND FREEZING RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE NW CWA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL TRY TO HOLD THE FRONT BACK...BUT THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
EXTRAORDINARILY DENSE...AND A SHALLOW 50-100 MB DEEP LAYER OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY. A GOOD
ANALOGY TO THIS PROCESS WOULD BE LIKE POURING WATER ON A TABLE
WITH THE WATER SPREADING OUTWARDS. THE NAM MODEL TYPICALLY DOES A
BETTER JOB WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASSES...AND HAS THE FRONT
MOVING THOUGH FASTER/STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. SEE NO REASON
NOT TO FOLLOW THE NAM FORECAST CLOSELY GIVEN ITS TRACK RECORD.

WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH THE NW CWA FRIDAY EVENING AND
GRADUALLY MARCH SOUTH SATURDAY. WE HAVE THE FRONT CROSSING THE
METROPLEX AT 9 AM SATURDAY...WACO AT 7 PM...AND FINALLY CLEARING
THE SE ZONES BY 3 AM SUNDAY. POST FRONTAL RAIN/FOG/DRIZZLE WILL BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ENSUES WITH 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE FRONT REMAINING INTACT. FREEZING TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING AND REACH
A PARIS TO DALLAS TO COMANCHE LINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY
LINGERING PRECIP WOULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO ANTICIPATE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS...AND ANY
SLIGHT DEVIATION IN THE FORECAST TEMPS WOULD GREATLY AFFECT THE
ICE POTENTIAL.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FINALLY EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BE COLD...AND STAY
RATHER CHILLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 FOR LOWS
AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN THE
SLOWLY MODIFYING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. WENT JUST A LITTLE COLDER
THAN 12Z MEX MOS FOR LOWS...BUT 5-10 DEGREES COLDER FOR THE HIGHS.

[gboudx]

Since Burn1 has argued that the SW flow will cause the arctic air to get held up, here's a discussion on this from the DFW afternoon AFD. Hopefully, he'll read it.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL TRY TO HOLD THE FRONT BACK...BUT THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
EXTRAORDINARILY DENSE...AND A SHALLOW 50-100 MB DEEP LAYER OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY. A GOOD
ANALOGY TO THIS PROCESS WOULD BE LIKE POURING WATER ON A TABLE
WITH THE WATER SPREADING OUTWARDS. THE NAM MODEL TYPICALLY DOES A
BETTER JOB WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASSES...AND HAS THE FRONT
MOVING THOUGH FASTER/STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. SEE NO REASON
NOT TO FOLLOW THE NAM FORECAST CLOSELY GIVEN ITS TRACK RECORD.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well get ready for some bad forecasts from the local news stations tonight! This is due to the latest NWS forecasts for the Houston area looking quite bad (as in it will probably wind up too warm)...

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 37.

M.L.King Day: Partly cloudy, with a high near 51.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 31.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 46.

A high of 51-degrees on Monday? Who are they trying to kid? If this front is as strong as I am hearing from the pro mets and seeing from the models then there is no way we are in the 50s Monday and we likely will have a hard time breaking 40 on Tuesday. I mean come on! 51-degrees in January could be accomplished by a weak pacific front. Certainly a front of arctic nature would be much, much colder (especially considering very little modification is expected).

The discussion, however, does still leave a bit of uncertainty though.

I bet we see these forecast numbers drop a good 5-10+ degrees for highs and 3-6+ degrees for lows before it is all said and done (based on what I am hearing/seeing).

[BreinLa]

I didn't have a chance to read everything but it looks like it's gonna get cold again?

[ROCK]

I know this isn't a gardening forum - BUT - in case you are interested....this is what the guy over a Teas Nursery told me to do next week to my Majesty Palms (if I have to....):

-Water thoroughly on Friday/Saturday unless the soil is still moist
-Cut all the fronds off
-Spray the entire crown with Cloudcover (or similar product such as Anti-Stress)
-Cover the crown with a sleeping bag (or a cotton fabric wrap for taller palms)
-Wrap the sleeping bag/cover with bubble wrap
-Cover the entire concoction with a plastic tarp and stake it down on all sides

If it's going to get REAL cold, additional measures such as wrapping Christmas lights in the wrap, placing hot water or a heat light under the tarp, etc. can be used.

ALSO - Do not leave the plastic on if temperatures get above 50F or the plant will suffocate and die. Any plastic is temporary, but a traditional cotton or burlap wrap can stay until Spring.

I hear you. I have some phildendrums (sp), bogunvia, (sp) that I need to wrap. I am going to Wal-mart tomorrow to get some cheap sheets for wrapping. Got plenty of x-mas lights I can string around the plants.

Question: should I leave my pool on during extreme cold weather? right now it shuts off at night.

[Tireman4]

Is there a chance, however remotely it is, that we all could be wrong and this thing turn out for the worst. I am not -removed-, but where the situation could really be treacherous this week. I know there is always a "chance", but how remote is that chance? Under 5 percent?

[Johnny]

As expected....




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
341 PM CST WED JAN 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND FALLING PRESSURES OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN THE ONSHORE FLOW THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS MAINLY BELOW 700 MB THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL APPROACH
REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT NEXT TWO DAYS (295 K SURFACE) RESULTING
IN LOW CLOUD COVER OVER REGION. WE EXPECT SEA/ADVECTION FOG LATE
THURSDAY NEAR COAST/LATE THURSDAY NIGHT COASTAL ZONES. THIS SHOULD
PERSIST ESPECIALLY OVER NEARSHORE WATERS AND BAYS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. WE SHALL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING POPS LATE THIS WEEK TO
SUNDAY WHEN STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CWFA. LATEST GFS INDICATE
FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES MORNING HOURS...PROBABLY MID
DAY CENTRAL AND AFTERNOON SOUTHERN ZONES/COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET
SUNDAY NIGHT TO FREEZING NORTHERN ZONES. LATEST GFS INDICATE
DECREASING CLOUD COVER EARLY NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES
AND COASTAL WATERS. GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ECMWF KEEP CHANGING
SOLUTIONS (JUST ABOUT EVERY MODEL RUN) FOR LATER PERIODS. FOR NOW...WE
DO NOT SEE FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIP FOR OUR CWFA LATER THIS
WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TOO DRY AT THE LOWER LAYERS.

[Portastorm]

Is there a chance, however remotely it is, that we all could be wrong and this thing turn out for the worst. I am not -removed-, but where the situation could really be treacherous this week. I know there is always a "chance", but how remote is that chance? Under 5 percent?

Tireman4--can only speak for myself ... I think its still within the realm of possibility that weather in portions of central and south Texas on Sunday into early next week could be nasty ... however, as Wxman57 said, that threat appears to be lessening with each series of model runs. If I had to put a percentage on it, I'd say 20% chance it happens. Maybe two days ago, that chance was up to 40%.

If we all see that the 0z runs of the GFS and the Euro continue the trend of colder but drier ... then I suspect the chances of a "worst case scenario" happening are fairly small. Regardless, it's going to get very very cold here after a very warm winter thus far. That in itself is a big story.

[JenBayles]

I hear you. I have some phildendrums (sp), bogunvia, (sp) that I need to wrap. I am going to Wal-mart tomorrow to get some cheap sheets for wrapping. Got plenty of x-mas lights I can string around the plants.

Question: should I leave my pool on during extreme cold weather? right now it shuts off at night.

Hey Rock. YES! Just take your pool off the timer and let it continue to circulate - the cirulation keeps the water temp a bit warmer and will take more time for the water to actually freeze in your pipes that are above ground. In 13 years of pool ownership, we have never needed to run the heater during a prolonged freeze - just kept the circulation going.

[Extremeweatherguy]

well..hmmm..seems the GFS has flip-flopped yet again!

18z run now showing much more moisture in the upper and even lower atmosphere. As well, it is also showing some of that being squeezed out over portions of TX as precipitation...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml
^^Precip. in coastal counties ..including the Houston area..Monday morning/afternoon. I do think the GFS is too warm with the surface numbers during this time period though.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml
^^precip. in coastal counties..including the Houston area..Tuesday (with afternoon temps. near or below freezing). Also, with cold upper-levels, this could be in the form of something other than freezing rain (possibly sleet or snow).^^

Though this is nothing serious and would not lead to a major ice storm or huge snowstorm, I do think it is important to note that the possiblility of winter weather still exists. Even small amounts of ice/snow can lead to major traffic issues in this part of TX.

We now will have to see if this becomes a trend in later runs, and who knows..may be the model will even do a complete 360 and show a major storm again. We shall see...

The 0z run (which I trust to a greater degree than the 18z) should tell us more about the situation.

[ROCK]

I hear you. I have some phildendrums (sp), bogunvia, (sp) that I need to wrap. I am going to Wal-mart tomorrow to get some cheap sheets for wrapping. Got plenty of x-mas lights I can string around the plants.

Question: should I leave my pool on during extreme cold weather? right now it shuts off at night.

Hey Rock. YES! Just take your pool off the timer and let it continue to circulate - the cirulation keeps the water temp a bit warmer and will take more time for the water to actually freeze in your pipes that are above ground. In 13 years of pool ownership, we have never needed to run the heater during a prolonged freeze - just kept the circulation going.

Thank you as I have always wondered about that. I am in my 2 second yr of pool ownership with no heater. Didn't think I would need it. Now wishing I had got it so we could swim sooner in the yr....oh well...

[Tireman4]

Interesting. Maybe a turn again.

[Tireman4]

Extremeweatherguy,

How often do the models come out per day? What I mean is, at what hourly intervals? Every 4 hours? Just curious.