Texas winter wx thread#5 - big changes on the way eventually

[jasons2k]

I don't like the looks of this pattern change. The timing of it and the evolution of multiple arctic discharges in the mid Jan - Feb timeframe often lead to our "historic" winter events.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I don't like the looks of this pattern change. The timing of it and the evolution of multiple arctic discharges in the mid Jan - Feb timeframe often lead to our "historic" winter events.

Sounds like JB thinks it's going to be a step down to a big event. The legedary freezes of 1983 and 1989 occured in a similar pattern. I recall the temp drops in both of those cold spell surprised everyone.

[Portastorm]

12z GFS run coming in now ... out to about 7 days ... good news/bad news scenario. Good news is that the ice threat continues to look diminished as the trough remains progressive and most moisture is well off the coast by Monday. Bad news is it looks like the coldest run yet of the GFS for Texas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[double D]

12z GFS run coming in now ... out to about 7 days ... good news/bad news scenario. Good news is that the ice threat continues to look diminished as the trough remains progressive and most moisture is well off the coast by Monday. Bad news is it looks like the coldest run yet of the GFS for Texas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

You beat me to it Portastorm. That is an extremley cold run with a 1048mb high sitting right over Texas on Tuesday and Wed.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

12z GFS run coming in now ... out to about 7 days ... good news/bad news scenario. Good news is that the ice threat continues to look diminished as the trough remains progressive and most moisture is well off the coast by Monday. Bad news is it looks like the coldest run yet of the GFS for Texas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

You beat me to it Portastorm. That is an extremley cold run with a 1048mb high sitting right over Texas on Tuesday and Wed.

It's going to be fun to read the Afternoon AFD's from the weather offices accross the state since some of them like to base every discussion on the latest run of the GFS.

[Tireman4]

I don't like the looks of this pattern change. The timing of it and the evolution of multiple arctic discharges in the mid Jan - Feb timeframe often lead to our "historic" winter events.

I agree. I do agree. I hope you are wrong (respectfully, of course), but I have a feeling you are right. David Paul, our local CBS affliate pro-meteorologist at KHOU, is still telling us (the viewing public) to watch out next week.

http://www.khou.com

[HarlequinBoy]

You generally can't rely on one arctic plunge to get the cold weather and precip. The first blast will set the stage. It is the one's afterwards that reinforce and establish the cold air. Eventually shortwaves from the north and or disturbances in the southern stream will become involved. Patience is needed. Wintry precip will appear. Late January and early February are the best time for wintry precip in the mid and deep south

That's what I've been thinking.. with cold air in place for an extended period of time winter weather will probably come, but it might take some time.

[jasons2k]

12z GFS run coming in now ... out to about 7 days ... good news/bad news scenario. Good news is that the ice threat continues to look diminished as the trough remains progressive and most moisture is well off the coast by Monday. Bad news is it looks like the coldest run yet of the GFS for Texas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

This is the concern I have; look for drier runs to allow us to get colder. The moisture would act to keep us from plunging to figid values.

[richtrav]

JS,

I'm afraid to ask what you mean by that. Are you suggesting we may be vulnerable to "The Big One" the next few weeks?

[southerngale]

I hope you don't lose any of your plants, Jason. Without the precip (in snow form, that is), the cold doesn't do any good. You can't build a snowman with cold.

I guess I was hoping it would get really cold (but not cold enough to ruin yours and others' trees, etc.), stay around freezing for a few days, with some snow on the ground. In comes Frosty.

Oh, to dream.

Oh well, now it looks dry, and possibly even colder? Well, I did get some firewood. I guess I won't need a nose for Frosty though, so I'll enjoy munching on my carrot sticks.

[HouTXmetro]

So what type of temps are we looking at in Houston next week absent the precipitation?

[aggiecutter]

The best hope for winter precip this weekend into Monday will be if the SE Ridge resists enough to slow the front down. If that were to happen, waves of low pressure would form on the front, throwing moisture back into the Arctic air. If the front blast through with no resistance, the cold air will overwhelm everything and moisture will be limited.

[double D]

I know it is over a week a way but the 12z gfs shows a very wet weekend on the 20th of Jan. The gfs usually likes to warm things up too quickly with these arctic fronts,(although in this case it is still cold for that weekend) so as others have said it looks like an interesting time ahead for us in Texas.

[HouTXmetro]

Well is confidence growing that the GFS has a good handle on things or are we in a similar situation to 2004 where it went Bananas in the preceding days and got it all wrong?

[GeneratorPower]

wxman57, can you help us out here?

[AL Chili Pepper]

I know it's not TX, but the MSN forecast has wet snow for New Orleans next Wednesday. 80% chance....haha!

[TexasStooge]

I know it's not TX, but the MSN forecast has wet snow for New Orleans next Wednesday.

MSN also called for Snow Flurries for Friday in Irving, TX.

The NWS has placed the Freezing rain back in the forecast for DFW from Saturday Night through Sunday Afternoon. As for the rest of that week...well...your guess is as good as mine.

[aggiecutter]

I just watched Bastardi's videos, and he thinks there is a pretty good chance that a low will form in the Gulf mid-late week and pull up to the NE. He said there would be a shield of snow and ice on its northern side---NE Texas through the southern half of Arkansas into Northern Mississippi and Northern Alabama,which is pretty typical for this type of pattern. He also mentioned that there might be some frozen overrunning precip a long the immediate coast.

[CaptinCrunch]

I don't like the looks of this pattern change. The timing of it and the evolution of multiple arctic discharges in the mid Jan - Feb timeframe often lead to our "historic" winter events.

Sounds like JB thinks it's going to be a step down to a big event. The legedary freezes of 1983 and 1989 occured in a similar pattern. I recall the temp drops in both of those cold spell surprised everyone.

In December of 89' we had 12 straight days of 32 or below temps which included the 3rd all time low of -1 set on Dec 23. Both 83 and 89 had classic McFarland patterens with a westeren ridge punching up into Siberria and draining into the deep south.

This current setup has all the same classic signs of being the same way. I won't be suprised if we have a 5 to 7 day span were we don't get above freezing here in NTX. As for the precip, this could very well be like 93' were the models don't handle the precip and arctic front and we hammered with a major icing across the NTX area.

[jasons2k]

JS,

I'm afraid to ask what you mean by that. Are you suggesting we may be vulnerable to "The Big One" the next few weeks?

Too early to say. I'm more concerned with the timing and how this pattern is evolving since at least since Nov-Dec 2000 or Jan 2002 when we hit 23F.

EDIT: One thing to add to my concern, and it's the trajectory of the cold air. Often, in the last few years, when readings were in the -40's and -50's in the Yukon, we were spared b/c the bulk of the cold went to the east and NE. This time, it looks like it's coming straight down, and with it being mid-January, that's a bad sign. I watch to see if the cold enters the lower 48 in Western Montana/Idaho vs. the Dakotas or Minnesota. The true blue northers like 1989 came in via Montana, not Minnesota.