Texas winter wx thread#5 - big changes on the way eventually

[aggiecutter]

The 12z run has a major winter storm in East Texas on into the mid-south region Wednesday-Thursday. Looking at the current temps in Canada, I think the front will be to the coast by Saturday night. After that, it is still up in the air as to whether it will be a couple days of light overrunning precipitation or an organized area of low pressure.

[Yankeegirl]

My hubby works for the Post Offce and he was in the "shack" last night checking in all the 18 wheelers, and they were talking about the weather next week...I think word of mouth is really starting to spread.... BTW, HEB near my house, Barker Cypress and FM 529 have a ton of firewood.... Just in case...

[Ptarmigan]

Despite the slower front, the 0z GFS still shows a major winter weather event for Texas...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _180.shtml
^^Tuesday morning.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml
^^Tuesday evening. HEAVY freezing rain and sleet.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml
^^Wednesday morning. HEAVY freezing rain and sleet.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml
^^Wednesday evening.^^

I still feel that the time period for this event will be a good 24 hours faster though. Probably occuring between Monday morning and Tuesday evening instead of Tuesday morning and Wednesday evening.

Like double D just said, the models probably won't have a good handle until midweek. We will know a lot more by Thursday or so.

Next week should be interesting. The local news is only saying that it will be cooler than usual.

[GeneratorPower]

I wanted to do a quick roundup of the latest full discussions from surrounding areas. Very important for figuring out whether TX is going to get winter weather.

Follow my thought train, here:

First, NWS St. Louis, Missouri:
This could be something affecting a large portion of the southern U.S. in a rolling ice-storm floatin towards the south and then east.

THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED SOME IN
THE NEW RUNS...AND THERE ARE MANY QUESTIONS WITH THE DETAILS OF THE ARRIVAL AND DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR. THERE REMAINS CONCERN ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE COLD AIR DEEPENS ENUF TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. ATTM THE BEST THAT CAN BE SAID IS THE MODELS ARE STILL SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO BUT DETAILS OF SUCH AN EVENT ARE STILL FUZZY AT 5 DAYS OUT. NOT UNEXPECTED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO HONE THE FCST WITH TIME.

Norman, Oklahoma
On-board as much as is advisable.

ARCTIC AIR TO ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH NEXT COLD FRONT. SHALLOW NATURE OF ARCTIC AIR...COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...SUGGESTS THAT RAIN WILL TURN TO FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET...WITH POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. ATTM...MODELS NUDGING HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHEAST...WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

NWS Little Rock, AR (From HWO)
Not overly concerned, but mentioning it.

ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY COME INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND AND WITH IT...THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTER WEATHER.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE COMPUTER MODELS REMAIN IN FLUX AND THIS SCENARIO IS STILL A WEEK AWAY. THE FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS NEW DATA IS RECEIVED. STAY TUNED TO YOUR OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

Jackson, MS
Mentions ice possibility

FINAL BIT INTRODUCED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS THAT REQUIRES FURTHER DISCUSSION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS AND EURO MODELS PREDICT A SYNOPTIC SET UP THAT WOULD SUGGEST ICE FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK IF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IS TRULY COLD ENOUGH. CURRENT FORECASTER THINKING IS THAT POSTFRONTAL AIR IN THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTRY PRECIP...ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF
PROGGED SURFACE HIGH WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST AT THAT TIME MAY PUT US IN A BETTER POSITION FOR ICY WEATHER LATER NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION RISK IN THE HWO ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE STILL REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE.

While this may be a case of Lucy moving the football, it might not be and like wxman57 has been saying, it could be one for the history books. History is made every year in weather records, and this could be the year for an icy textbook example.

[Burn1]

wow...

I cannot believe what I am seeing on the news tonight. They are majorly underplaying this event (except for David Paul earlier on KHOU earlier)!

The met on ABC13, for instance, just said, "By next week at this time, we will have highs only in the 50s, may be even lower 50s".

Has this guy not been looking at any models? Lower 50s would even be warmer than the upper 40s shown by the NWS and would be WAY higher than what any of the models is showing.

I have the feeling that some people will be quite surprised when they tune in for the forecast come say Thursday, Friday or Saturday expecting to see highs in the 50s next week and instead see 30s forecasted with the mets trying to throw out a lame excuse like, "the models have mysteriously changed to a colder look".

Like I said before..... The Sub-Tropical jet will still have a strong zonal flow\...close enough to keep Central and South Texas from the real cold stuff....This is same flow which will continue to shunt off the real cold from the extreme SE also...especially Florida!

[Yankeegirl]

I think that the msnbc.com site has went a little nuts with their temps for next week...
Barker, TX 77084
Tuesday
Jan 16 SleetSleet
Hi: 38° Lo: 22°
Cloudy with sleet showers. High 38F and low 22F.
75%

Wednesday
Jan 17 SleetSleet
Hi: 32° Lo: 16°
Drizzle and flurries. High 32F and low 16F.
75%

Thursday
Jan 18 Snow ShowersSnow Showers
Hi: 25° Lo: 10°
Cloudy with sleet showers. High 25F and low 10F.
45%


Still kind of fun to look at!!! ((as unreliable as it is...))

[TrekkerCC]

The NWS Ft. Worth Office has updated the Special Weather statement put out during the afternoon. It looks like to be an interesting weekend event for North Texas (and Central/Southeast Texas). Relevant extracts of the Special Weather Statement and Early Morning Discussion are quoted below.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY AND ON INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE THREAT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION AND IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC FORECASTS CONCERNING THE COVERAGE...EXACT TIMING...OR ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. COMPUTER MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING AT THIS TIME THAT THERE WILL BE FURTHER POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER BY TUESDAY AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AND A NEW UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. AGAIN...THIS IS VERY PRELIMINARY AND COMPUTER MODELS CAN BE UNRELIABLE THAT FAR INTO THE FUTURE.

THE MAIN WEATHER PROBLEM COMES WITH THE TIMING A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND THE CONTINUING PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SINK SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY...INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS...WE ARE ASSUMING THAT THE GFS IS NOT HANDLING IT WELL. THUS WE ARE BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. THIS IS OVER 24 HOURS AHEAD OF THE GFS SOLUTION...SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BIG TEMPERATURE BUST IF WE ARE WRONG...AS WE ARE GOING WELL BELOW THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...WITH SOME FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

IF THAT WASN/T BAD ENOUGH...THE GFS FORECASTS ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF/TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS...AND SLEET MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

I guess the most interesting aspect of the SWS/Early Morning Discussion is the continuing uncertainty of frontal passage, and the additional threat of winter weather on Tuesday. It could be a very messy weekend/early week in North Texas if this trend continues.

[southerngale]

Lake Charles NWS shows a high of 66 in Beaumont on Sunday, a low of 45 on Sunday night and a high of 54 on Monday and here's their mention of the front in the early morning discussion:

FRONT PROGGED TO STALL OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WHILE OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD DOME. THIS
SPELLS SOME COOL RAINS FOR THE AREA GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK. WILL
MAINTAIN A WATCHFUL EYE FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET POTENTIAL.





Houston NWS shows a high of 67 in Houston on Sunday, a low of 40 on Sunday night and a high of 48 on Monday and here's a snippet from their early morning discussion: (they mention snow!)

WITH A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MONDAY AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MIXED FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WITH LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS
WELL AS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH WITH THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...AND
POSSIBLY SNOW...MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SOME
SLEET WITH LIGHT RAIN IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY FOR NOW.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think that the msnbc.com site has went a little nuts with their temps for next week...
Barker, TX 77084
Tuesday
Jan 16 SleetSleet
Hi: 38° Lo: 22°
Cloudy with sleet showers. High 38F and low 22F.
75%

Wednesday
Jan 17 SleetSleet
Hi: 32° Lo: 16°
Drizzle and flurries. High 32F and low 16F.
75%

Thursday
Jan 18 Snow ShowersSnow Showers
Hi: 25° Lo: 10°
Cloudy with sleet showers. High 25F and low 10F.
45%


Still kind of fun to look at!!! ((as unreliable as it is...))

yeah, MSN has gone crazy! lol. They show my low for Thursday being 8-degrees with a high of 24-degrees. If that actually came to pass, then it would be near the record cold high for this area and near the record cold low as well. I now think I know how they (MSN) make their forecast though.. It seems to be based closely on the 0z GFS run (which shows a low of 10-degrees in Houston on the 20th).

BTW: The Houston NWS now is calling for sleet and rain as far south as the Woodlands for next Monday.

UPDATE: MSN now has corrected itself and is back to highs in the 30s, lows in the 20s...

http://weather.msn.com/tenday.aspx?weal ... c:USTX1290

[Portastorm]

Yesterday afternoon I was singing the praises of the forecasters at NWSFO Austin/San Antonio for being bullish on the upcoming winter weather.

Imagine my surprise to awake this morning and see them totally buying into the bizzaro-looking 0z GFS run and predicting a high of 71 degrees in Austin on Saturday! 71 degrees???!!! However, they're still touting the potential for a winter storm early next week after frontal passage.

Eh, who knows ... maybe they're right and the front will be delayed but not denied. This morning's forecast either is a stroke of bold genius or a fool's folly.

Meanwhile, this morning's NCEP ensembles continue to look very cold for us in the next 10 days:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... ation.html

[wxman57]

Yesterday afternoon I was singing the praises of the forecasters at NWSFO Austin/San Antonio for being bullish on the upcoming winter weather.

Imagine my surprise to awake this morning and see them totally buying into the bizzaro-looking 0z GFS run and predicting a high of 71 degrees in Austin on Saturday! 71 degrees???!!! However, they're still touting the potential for a winter storm early next week after frontal passage.

Eh, who knows ... maybe they're right and the front will be delayed but not denied. This morning's forecast either is a stroke of bold genius or a fool's folly.

Meanwhile, this morning's NCEP ensembles continue to look very cold for us in the next 10 days:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... ation.html

Unless the cold front moves through Austin before noon Saturday, then a high in the 70s is likely. The 00Z ECMWF moves the front through Austin Saturday evening. 06Z GFS appears a bit lost and slowed the front way down. But I was thinking mid 70s for central to SE TX for highs Saturday.

[TexasStooge]

I think that the msnbc.com site has went a little nuts with their temps for next week...
Barker, TX 77084
Tuesday
Jan 16 SleetSleet
Hi: 38° Lo: 22°
Cloudy with sleet showers. High 38F and low 22F.
75%

Wednesday
Jan 17 SleetSleet
Hi: 32° Lo: 16°
Drizzle and flurries. High 32F and low 16F.
75%

Thursday
Jan 18 Snow ShowersSnow Showers
Hi: 25° Lo: 10°
Cloudy with sleet showers. High 25F and low 10F.
45%


Still kind of fun to look at!!! ((as unreliable as it is...))

yeah, MSN has gone crazy! lol. They show my low for Thursday being 8-degrees with a high of 24-degrees. If that actually came to pass, then it would be near the record cold high for this area and near the record cold low as well. I now think I know how they (MSN) make their forecast though.. It seems to be based closely on the 0z GFS run (which shows a low of 10-degrees in Houston on the 20th).

BTW: The Houston NWS now is calling for sleet and rain as far south as the Woodlands for next Monday.

UPDATE: MSN now has corrected itself and is back to highs in the 30s, lows in the 20s...

http://weather.msn.com/tenday.aspx?weal ... c:USTX1290

MSN went a little crazy with the forecasts for Irving as well.

Monday: Slight chance of light freezing rain with ice pellets (sleet). High 34F and low 27F.

Tuesday: Snow. High 28F and low 23F.

Here's the real winter weather forecasts from the NWS:

DALLAS/FORT WORTH
Sunday: 33°F | 26°F
_____________________________________________________________

SHERMAN
Sunday: 33°F | 24°F
_____________________________________________________________

WICHITA FALLS
Sunday: 33°F | 26°F
_____________________________________________________________

ABILENE
Sunday: 36°F | 23°F
M.L. King Day: 35°F
_____________________________________________________________

LUBBOCK
Saturday: 31°F | 18°F
Sunday: 28°F | 16°F
M.L. King Day: 29°F

[double D]

The San Angelo NWS is going to bring the front 24 hours ahead of current model forecast which would be Saturday afternoon for Central Texas. I think the models holding up the front doesn't make sense, because when this type of airmass is moving south it can overwhelm any type of pattern (we shall see).

[Portastorm]

Yesterday afternoon I was singing the praises of the forecasters at NWSFO Austin/San Antonio for being bullish on the upcoming winter weather.

Imagine my surprise to awake this morning and see them totally buying into the bizzaro-looking 0z GFS run and predicting a high of 71 degrees in Austin on Saturday! 71 degrees???!!! However, they're still touting the potential for a winter storm early next week after frontal passage.

Eh, who knows ... maybe they're right and the front will be delayed but not denied. This morning's forecast either is a stroke of bold genius or a fool's folly.

Meanwhile, this morning's NCEP ensembles continue to look very cold for us in the next 10 days:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... ation.html

Unless the cold front moves through Austin before noon Saturday, then a high in the 70s is likely. The 00Z ECMWF moves the front through Austin Saturday evening. 06Z GFS appears a bit lost and slowed the front way down. But I was thinking mid 70s for central to SE TX for highs Saturday.

Oh, I understand that 57. I'm just under the assumption that the GFS is not handling the cold airmass well. Also have seen the Euro's suggestion of frontal passage Saturday evening ... but I have seen references from pro mets that the Euro has a bad habit of hanging up too much energy in the south and southwest with upper troughs. All of this to say, I still think frontal passage takes place in Austin on Saturday afternoon.

And yes ... my uneducated opinion and $1.85 will get you a grande coffee at Starbucks, so I know it's not worth much!

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW TX......MORNING AFD

THE MAIN WEATHER PROBLEM COMES WITH THE TIMING A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT AND THE CONTINUING PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SINK SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS...WE ARE ASSUMING
THAT THE GFS IS NOT HANDLING IT WELL. THUS WE ARE BRINGING THE
FRONT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. THIS IS OVER 24 HOURS AHEAD
OF THE GFS SOLUTION...SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BIG
TEMPERATURE BUST IF WE ARE WRONG...AS WE ARE GOING WELL BELOW THE
GFS MOS GUIDANCE. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...WITH SOME FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

IF THAT WASN/T BAD ENOUGH...THE GFS FORECASTS ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF/TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS...AND
SLEET MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

[aggiecutter]

The Ensembles have repetitive shots of cold air between Monday and the 23rd of the month.

Morning Ensembles:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... times.html

[double D]

The Ensembles have repetitive shots of cold air between Monday and the 23rd of the month.

Morning Ensembles:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... times.html

That looks very chilly. With a active southern jet stream right over Texas, I think we will have a interesting two weeks to say the least.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

NWS Brownsville is finally on board. I guess one of old timer forecasters from down there had to get on the phone to make sure the computers were not running the office down there. Notice they are mentioning winter precip all the way down there!!!

000
FXUS64 KBRO 090820
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
220 AM CST TUE JAN 9 2007

.DISCUSSION...XPCT NE SFC FLOW FOR TDY...THEN VEERING SE WED IN
PREPARATION FOR A STRONG FROPA LATE SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN 5 TO
10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS...BECMG BREEZY TO
WINDY SAT AS NRN TX SFC LOW DEEPENS AND FIRST COLD AMS MIGRATES TO
CO. INITIAL FROPA XPCTD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE ARCTIC AMS
REPLACES MODIFIED COLD AIR OVR CO MON PM...WITH 1055MB SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN CO REGION. THIS AMS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY RGV WITH
COLD DRY AIR TUE THRU THU OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH INITIATING
ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE TUE...AS DEEP COLD
AIR APPROACHES SRN TX.

MDLS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS ON
DEVELOPMENT OF CP AMS...IT`S MAGNITUDE AND GENERAL MVMT TOWARD OUR
REGION SUN THRU THU OF NEXT WEEK. GFS HAS -1 DEG C 850 TEMPS
COAST...-5.5 DEG C INLAND WEST AT 12Z THU...-8.5 DEG C INLAND WEST
TO 0 DEG C WESLACO 12Z WED...AND INITIAL 850 FREEZE IN WRN VLY BY
12Z TUE...WITH INCREASING CAA DURING THE DAY TUE. GFS SNOW ACCUM
ALGORITHM BRINGS SNOW JUST NORTH AND WEST OF KDFX 12Z TUE...WITH
COLDER AIR AND HIGHER POPS PROBABLE TUE PM THRU THU. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE NWS IN BROWNSVILLE THIS WEEK FOR THE VERY LATEST WX
FCSTS ON THE MVMTS...INTENSITY AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PCPN OF THIS
COLD ARCTIC AMS.

[HouTXmetro]

IN SUMMARY, JEFF LINDNER'S HOUSTON FORECAST AS OF THIS MORNING

Frontal Passage sometime Sunday Morning. Temps will plumet from 70's to near Freezing by night fall.

Temps should remain near or below freezing from Monday through Thursday.

Expect Freezing rain and glazing to begin on Monday. P-type may change over to sleet/snow on Tuesday.

If forecast holds, historic event with widespread power outages.

[CaptinCrunch]

This from NWS TULSA OK

ACCUMULATING ICE OR
SNOW IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. THE SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS...PRECIPITATION TYPES...AND AMOUNTS WILL BECOME BETTER
DEFINED BY MID-WEEK. EVERYONE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS SHOULD
BE COGNIZANT OF THE CURRENT FORECASTS.