Texas winter wx thread#5 - big changes on the way eventually

[Extremeweatherguy]

Major bust potential in store for Frank Billingsly's afternoon forecast. He is calling for 50s during the marathon on Sunday and he is only calling for 52 for a high Monday. HA! If we are 52, based on what I have been seeing, then I would be amazed. There is no way we are above 45 on Monday IMO and Tuesday will likely be even colder.

[Yankeegirl]

He must be using accuweather.... thats what they say too...

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z GFS speeds up frontal passage for Houston to late Saturday evening...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml

(between 6pm Sat. and 12am Sun. it shows a temperature drop from 70-degrees to 44-degrees at IAH.)

Also, it seems to still show a major winter storm for Monday:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

[Burn1]

10-Day Forecast for
Houston, TX



Forecast Conditions High/Low °F Precip.
Chance High Temperatures Low Temperatures Precipitation
Tonight
Jan 8 Clear
N/A/40° 0%


High not valid after 2pm
Tue
Jan 9 Sunny / Wind
64°/40° 0%
64°F

Wed
Jan 10 Sunny
62°/53° 0%
62°F

Thu
Jan 11 Few Showers
70°/61° 30%
70°F

Get Local Golf Course Forecasts
Fri
Jan 12 Isolated T-Storms
72°/64° 30%
72°F

Sat
Jan 13 Scattered T-Storms
74°/56° 40%
74°F

Sun
Jan 14 T-Showers
57°/39° 30%
57°F

Check Flight Delays
Mon
Jan 15 Few Showers
50°/36° 30%
50°F

Tue
Jan 16 Sunny
53°/35° 10%
53°F

Wed
Jan 17 Sunny
56°/39° 10%
56°F

Check Your Local Event Forecast

Last Updated Jan 08, 4:51 PM CT

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18z GFS also continues the winter storm into the days following Monday. This is surely the scariest looking run for Texas...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _180.shtml
^^Early Tuesday morning. Possible HEAVY freezing rain (and may be sleet) for the Houston area^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml
^^Tuesday afternoon. Colder upper air temperatures will likely change the freezing rain over to sleet and snow across the state.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _204.shtml
^^Early Wednesday morning. Wintery mix coming to an end, but at this point HEAVY accumulations would have already occured.^^

The model then keeps ligher winter precip. around through Friday mainly near the coast.

[Extremeweatherguy]

10-Day Forecast for
Houston, TX



Forecast Conditions High/Low °F Precip.
Chance High Temperatures Low Temperatures Precipitation
Tonight
Jan 8 Clear
N/A/40° 0%


High not valid after 2pm
Tue
Jan 9 Sunny / Wind
64°/40° 0%
64°F

Wed
Jan 10 Sunny
62°/53° 0%
62°F

Thu
Jan 11 Few Showers
70°/61° 30%
70°F

Get Local Golf Course Forecasts
Fri
Jan 12 Isolated T-Storms
72°/64° 30%
72°F

Sat
Jan 13 Scattered T-Storms
74°/56° 40%
74°F

Sun
Jan 14 T-Showers
57°/39° 30%
57°F

Check Flight Delays
Mon
Jan 15 Few Showers
50°/36° 30%
50°F

Tue
Jan 16 Sunny
53°/35° 10%
53°F

Wed
Jan 17 Sunny
56°/39° 10%
56°F

Check Your Local Event Forecast

Last Updated Jan 08, 4:51 PM CT

If this horrible forecast were to verify, I think 90% of the storm2k members would be completely amazed...including pro mets. I just see no way this strong of a system could affect us with us never hitting freezing once and with highs in the 50s. Just aint gonna happen this time (unless there are MAJOR changes soon). BTW, if you want to see a colder 10-day outlook, check out this one from MSN.com:

http://weather.msn.com/tenday.aspx?weal ... c:USTX1290

[Burn1]

Again the zonal flow of the sub-tropical jet which keeps Florida in the warmth will protect Central to Southern Texas from a major cold outbreak....Again, probably 5 to 10 degrees below normal but nothing drastic!

[gboudx]

So Burn, what is it that you are seeing that pro-mets Jeff Lidner and Joe Bastardi are missing? Because both of them are talking about temps being much colder than 5-10 degress below normal, with wintry precip. Obviously, you see something either they are missing, or they are forgetting to factor in. Just curious.

[HouTXmetro]

Well in fairness most pro-mets were wrong about That Hurricane which was suppose to hit the Gulf Coast but went into So-Fl as T-Storm. Forgot the name but the majority opinion can be wrong. I'll just be prepared either way.

[wxman57]

Hi all! I'm usually in the tropical forum. But it looks like a very major weather event shaping up for TX and possibly LA. I just looked at the 18Z GFS. It drives the Arctic front through Saturday evening then has heavy precip across most of Texas through Tuesday night! This would be just about a worst-case scenario for a freezing rain event for SE and central Texas. While I expect that this may not be the final solution, it does show at least one possible scenario. This is very likely going to be a major event in Texas and LA, perhaps one of those events we talk about decades from now.

If the front comes through Saturday evening (very likely), then Sunday's temps across Houston will probably range from 40 around midnight to 33-34 by sunrise and low 30s through the day. I certainly don't see any 52 Sunday unless the front doesn't come through until 11:45pm Saturday and that 52 occurs as the bottom falls out between 11:45 and midnight. May not get above 35 on Monday and we could be colder.

[wxman57]

Well in fairness most pro-mets were wrong about That Hurricane which was suppose to hit the Gulf Coast but went into So-Fl as T-Storm. Forgot the name but the majority opinion can be wrong. I'll just be prepared either way.

Forecasting the path of a developing TC is quite different from observing -40 to -60 air in Canada driving southward toward the lower 48. It's not like the air is going to stop or take a different path. It's coming down lee of the Rockies and there's not much more than barbed wire fences to stop it.

[jasons2k]

I would be equally amazed if that MSN forecast verified.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Thanks for chiming in wxman! Nice to see your thoughts on the upcoming situation. Looks like next week could be really interesting for sure.

[Portastorm]

Yes, thanks for sharing your insights Wxman57.

Great to see you here!

[aggiecutter]

The CPC guidance 6-10 and 8-14 shows well below normal temperatures and above average precipitation for the southern plains.

CPC Guidance:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/

[double D]

What is up with the NAM holding the cold air up in Kansas on Friday? That is just weird and probably an outlier.

Burn1, even with the sub-tropical jet going right over Texas the cold air is very dense and will undercut the southwest flow and overwhelm the zonal flow.

[ETXHAMXYL]

I sure hope to hear from AFM. I respect his forecast even more than our local mets here in NTX. He tells it like it is whether its what we want to hear or not.

As far as Burn1's comments...Has he ever stated where he is getting this 50's temps? I think it will be in the 50's for a few moments after the front passes through on its way down to the 20's or 30's. If he sticks with the 50's his nickname of Burn will fit him perfectly...(just poking fun) Cold can burn just as Heat can burn right? Speaking of which I'm all electric and out in the country...hope I can find some charcoal or wood to burn in the grill to cook food if electricity goes out. Is it possible to Bar b q below freezing with your grill covered in freezing rain? Just wondering in case I have to heat up some chili next week.

[ROCK]

With all this chatter about a winter outbreak, thank goodness I bought a generator and window unit for last years TS season. Well the gen might come in handy but the A/C won't...

[JenBayles]

Yeah! Where IS that killjoy AFM? He should be chiming in with the needle poised on all our collective balloons.

[LAwxrgal]

With all this chatter about a winter outbreak, thank goodness I bought a generator and window unit for last years TS season. Well the gen might come in handy but the A/C won't...

Unless your window unit has a heating function, that is....

Anyway, I've been a lurker on this thread (my sister moved to Sour Lake last year and absolutely loves the area) and am concerned about a potential icing event, not just for where I live, but also for you guys over there. Ice storms are no fun.

Remember all the models flip-flopped in advance of the 2004 Christmas winter weather event, and they'll do it again here. Our local mets aren't even talking about this possible arctic outbreak yet, still in their minds too far out, I think.