Texas winter wx thread#5 - big changes on the way eventually

[double D]

I wouldn't buy into the 00z or 006z runs of the GFS, as it has obviously started it's flip-flop game. The EURO and Canadian keep the upper low west of us and the GFS as aggiecutter mentioned ejects it way to fast. The GFS is notoriously bad when it comes to arctic fronts anyway, I wouldn't pay much attention to that model until Wednesday when it has a better handle on the system coming down the plains.

[aggiecutter]

The morning Ensembles still look very cold for the next two weeks. The cold is coming. That is not an issue anymore. When and where the precipitation will fall is all that remains to be resolved. I will say this. When you get this much cold for this length of time in the south, you will get a winter storm. It's not a matter of if. It is a matter of when.

Morning Ensembles:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... times.html

[CaptinCrunch]

Upper low passage remains well behind frontal passage per EURO and Canadian models, and as stated in earlier post the GFS sucks at arctic fronts and winter precip perjections. All said start looking at forecast starting Thursday as buy that time we will be 72 hrs out from frontal passage with precip to follow about 12 hrs after. High's are already forecasted to be in the lower 40's by Sunday here in D/FW pending timing of arctic front.

[Johnny]

I'm going to throw out the models for a second and base this off of past history. When we have a 1050+ mb high sitting in the northwestern territories, it usually is driven southward along the lee side of the Rockies, through Denver and straight into the heart of Texas. This is what will more than likely happen. Models are models and don't really base their info off of climatology, do they? Climatology speaking, arctic fronts that drive southward down the lee side of the Rockies usually come straight into Texas.

Look at Denver's temperatures at the end of this forecast cycle when the arctic front comes through.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... O&site=BOU


It might be even colder than that! That is the cold that is coming straight into Texas! Not only that but this very cold air will be traveling over some serious snow pack so don't count on this airmass being modified all that much. This is another thing models don't pick up on.

With this said, we are fixing to get VERY cold. The precip is another issue altogether but the very cold air is coming and it means business. It's about time we get a shot like this.

Like many of you here, I'll be loading up on firewood for the heck of it. If anything, I'll get a big ol fire started outside to roast marshmellows on with the kiddies when it's spittin' snow flurries.

[aggiecutter]

Just for the record, I don't think this weekend will amount to much precipitation wise behind the front. I think the low will eject out ahead of the front, leaving only wrap around moisture, which will be light. However, it will turn very cold with reinforcing shots to follow the next couple weeks. Sometime in that time frame, one these El Nino systems will meet up with cold air that is already in place. That is when the southern plains will have a big winter storm. I just dont see it this weekend, unless there is an unusual overrunning situation.

[Portastorm]

JB is saying this morning that by late in the weekend, "north Texas" will have max highs in the 20s.

[double D]

JB is saying this morning that by late in the weekend, "north Texas" will have max highs in the 20s.

Did he mention anything precipitation wise for Texas or does he think we might escape the worst of the weather? Also if he is predicting highs in the 20's for north Texas then that must mean we should be in the lower 30's for highs in central Texas....brrrrr.

Fwiw, Amarillo is forecasting a high of 16 on Sunday, there not messing around with this front!

[Portastorm]

JB is saying this morning that by late in the weekend, "north Texas" will have max highs in the 20s.

Did he mention anything precipitation wise for Texas or does he think we might escape the worst of the weather? Also if he is predicting highs in the 20's for north Texas then that must mean we should be in the lower 30's for highs in central Texas....brrrrr.

Fwiw, Amarillo is forecasting a high of 16 on Sunday, there not messing around with this front!

I haven't seen anything specific from him about precip this weekend. He's been speaking and writing more generally about a massive nose-dive of temps this coming weekend as well as several "threats" of winter storms over the next few weeks within this general pattern.

Again, he's more of a pattern guy than a "It's going to snow 8 inches in Fredericksburg on Monday" kind of guy! (although I know you'd love to see that happen!!)

[gboudx]

What does JB consider to be "north Texas"? I've seen it referred to the panhandle and also to areas north of I-20.

[double D]

What does JB consider to be "north Texas"? I've seen it referred to the panhandle and also to areas north of I-20.

Thats a good question... but I think he is referring more to the Dallas area than Amarillo area, especailly since the Amarillo NWS has highs in the upper teens on Sunday.

[Johnny]

I think JB is referring to the Red River Valley area including the Dallas/Fort Worth area. It looks like the panhandle might struggle to get out of the mid to upper teens!

Edit: double D beat me to it.

[gboudx]

Thanks double D and Johnny. I figured that's what he meant, but it can confusing when people refer to "north TX, north-central TX". I've seen both referred to as the DFW area.

[Burn1]

GFS continues to show artic cold confined to N. Texas then migrating northeastward....Again looking at a couple of degrees below normal for central and southern Texas for time period 1/15-1/22 but nothing out of the ordinary...

[aggiecutter]

The 12z run also sets up a overrunning situation for much of Texas from 162-192. That is something that we'll need to keep an eye on. Probably not a lot of precipitation, but with subfreezing temps at the surface, a little moisture can cause a lot of problems.

12Z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[HouTXmetro]

MSNBC is calling for flurries in Houston on Tuesday and Wet Snow Wednesday. I do realize that's over a week away.

[Kelarie]

The 12z run also sets up a overrunning situation for much of Texas from 162-192. That is something that we'll need to keep an eye on. Probably not a lot of precipitation, but with subfreezing temps at the surface, a little moisture can cause a lot of problems.

12Z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

This is getting a little spooky, and yes I know we are still a week out, but still.

[HouTXmetro]

I was getting ahead of myself then I realized a lot can change in 10 days... I'll just keep monitoring the forecast and trends. I feel like I'm tracking a hurricane... LOL

[wxman22]

12z GFS back to more frozen precip....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192m.gif


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216m.gif

[aggiecutter]

If anyone wants a good explanation of the coming pattern, go and join Accuweather's professional website. It is free for 30 days. You can cancel anytime within the next 30 days and wont be billed. I did it last night. Anyway, If you do join, be sure and look at Bastardi's videos for today, particularly the Long Ranger and the Big Dog. He does a great job of explaining the upcoming pattern and how it parallels 78. The evidence he presents is overwhelming and not hyperbole.

[KatDaddy]

If this run of GFS did pan out, coastal TX could see a snowstorm. I know it will change and we are many days out.