Texas winter wx thread#5 - big changes on the way eventually

[Burn1]

Latest models seem to indicate most of artic air will be limited from central to northern Texas......Just a little bit below normal for rest of state....Maybe some frozen precip for N. Tx

[double D]

I have not seen snow or ice since the big snowstorm of 1985 in San Antonio (at least anything significant). We lived in Houston from 2000-2004 and did not see any snow(we left and then it snowed for Christmas). Now living in Fredericksburg for two years, I hope to see some frozen stuff (preferably snow over ice). I guess this goes to show you how hard it is to get snow in parts of Texas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest models seem to indicate most of artic air will be limited from central to northern Texas......Just a little bit below normal for rest of state....Maybe some frozen precip for N. Tx

A little bit below normal? Models are showing a long stretch of highs below 40-degrees for the Houston area. Whether or not they are right is the question, but if they are then that would certainly be more than a little bit below normal. Average highs for January are near 60-degrees here, so a long stretch of highs below 40 would be anything but slightly abnormal.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

I wonder how long its going to take the Houston area to mention this cold snap?

I think it was friday nite that ed brandon @ abc13 said that next weekend we will need an extra blanket at the end of the weather report, so sure it will get hyped up before the week is over

[Tireman4]

Yep. It sure will.

[Portastorm]

Latest models seem to indicate most of artic air will be limited from central to northern Texas......Just a little bit below normal for rest of state....Maybe some frozen precip for N. Tx

To which "latest models" are you referring?

[Extremeweatherguy]

CPC seems to really be biting onto this change too...

Check out the latest outlooks...

Day 6-10:
Temps: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... mp.new.gif
Precip: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... cp.new.gif

Days 8-14
Temps: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... mp.new.gif
Precip: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... cp.new.gif

[Stratosphere747]

Latest models seem to indicate most of artic air will be limited from central to northern Texas......Just a little bit below normal for rest of state....Maybe some frozen precip for N. Tx

Careful Burn....

No reason to be realistic when looking at the models...

[aggiecutter]

The 12z EURO has a classic overrunning situation setting up for Texas. It has the front from a Shreveport to Austin line at 12z Sunday, with a surface low just south of Texas and a cutoff in New Mexico. That should provide more than ample moisture for the state after the front passes through. I do agree with most in that EURO is probably a little slow with the front, and it will be close to the Gulf Coast by this time.

12Z EURO:
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.108.gif

[southerngale]

Latest models seem to indicate most of artic air will be limited from central to northern Texas......Just a little bit below normal for rest of state....Maybe some frozen precip for N. Tx

Careful Burn....

No reason to be realistic when looking at the models...

hmmm...now I'm confused.

I thought the models were showing really cold air headed down here. Jeff and other local mets have been talking about it as well. What's changed? Burn1 said "models" but didn't specify which one(s) and from what I've seen posted in here, it's still showing really cold air in about a week.

What am I missing?

[Extremeweatherguy]

msn.com continues to paint an interesting weather picture this evening:

http://weather.msn.com/tenday.aspx?weal ... c:USTX1290
Is that a high of 33-degrees and a low of 24-degrees that I see for January 15th with sleet showers? Brr...

BTW: I know this (msn.com) is probably not the most reliable location for weather info. I was just posting this because it is fun to look at for right now. It is not often you see a forecast for Spring, TX that features temperatures and weather conditions like this.

[aggiecutter]

There is no questioning if the Arctic air will reach south Texas. All the models show that it will and have been for the past 2 days. The only question is the timing as in will it be Saturday night or Sunday night. BTW, 2 local mets, channel 6 and 12 out of Shreveport, cautioned viewers of the impending winter weather Monday week. Both went onto say that temps in this part of the country would be well below normal for the rest of the month. That is very unusual for them to say something of that nature this far in advance.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

There is no questioning if the Arctic air will reach south Texas. All the models show that it will and have been for the past 2 days. The only question is the timing as in will it be Saturday night or Sunday night. BTW, 2 local mets, channel 6 and 12 out of Shreveport, cautioned viewers of the impending winter weather Monday week. Both went onto say that temps in this part of the country would be well below normal for the rest of the month. That is very unusual for them to say something of that nature this far in advance.

I agree. I could understand it stopping in North Texas or the Panhandle. But if it reaches Central Texas it's katie the barndoor as they say.

[Extremeweatherguy]

0z GFS has some slight differences from the 12z, but still looks cold.

The main differences are this:

-It shows less precip. next week, which means slightly warmer high temperatures and less of a chance of a "destructive" ice storm.
-It shows colder upper air temperatures (meaning sleet or snow is also possible from any falling precip).

Now, at this point in the game, those small differences don't mean much unless they become a trend. The main thing to remember is that it still shows cold (with multiple days having highs potentially below 40-degrees and lows below 30-degrees) and a good setup for winter weather potential. We will now have to wait and see what the 12z shows (as well as what the other models show)..

Also:

Here are the specific 2 meter temperatures the 0z run shows for IAH:

Sunday morning (6am) = 68-degrees
Sunday evening (6pm) = 44-degrees
Monday morning (6am) = 34.5-degrees
Monday evening (6pm) = 34.5-degrees
Tuesday morning (6am) = 28-degrees
Tuesday evening (6pm) = 35-degrees
Wednesday morning (6am) = 25-degrees
Wednesday evening (6pm) = 32-degrees
Thursday morning (6am) = 26-degrees
Thursday evening (6pm) = 41-degrees

The main questions remain to be:

-Frontal timing (the current 0z run shows a slow front)?
-How much moisture to work with behind the front?
-How much cold air will there be to work with behind the front?
-How cold will the upper atmosphere be?

[aggiecutter]

The operational GFS is still showing the same pattern as it has locked in on it. You will see differences run to run as to how it handles southern branch low pressure systems. With a big temperature differential and feedback, there will be a lot of variance over the next 4-5 days as to where the low pressures will be located and resulting precipitation shield.

[aggiecutter]

EWG, cold air is not going to be the question here. The 0z is digging that trough deep into the southern plains, even more so than previous runs. The only question that remains is will there be an overrunning situation behind the front ala the 12z EURO and previous runs of the operational GFS.

[aggiecutter]

EWG, here is a good example of the model feeding back on itself. At 144hr, the GFS has a low over Midland, Texas. At 150hr, the GFS has that same low over Joplin, MO. I don't think that low is going to that far in just 6hrs time. See link below:

0z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[southerngale]

Lake Charles NWS still doesn't talk about the front.


Houston/Galveston NWS office does. A little snippet from the early morning discussion:

THIS INCREASED CHANCE OF STORMS SHOULD PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURES HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND
WILL SHOW READINGS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 42




Shreveport NWS mentions the front, but it doesn't sound as impressive as I would expect given what I've been reading in here.

WHEN THE RAIN FIRST BEGINS IT SHOULD BE
IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SHOWERS...AND THEN AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST AND THE CONTINUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE AND
AFFECTS FROM A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW. CLOSED LOWS TEND TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY BUT ONCE THE
SYSTEM BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AND STARTS INTO MOVEMENT DURING
THE WEEKEND...IT WILL SEND A FRONT THROUGH THE FOUR STATE REGION
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RETURN...BUT
MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA BEFORE THE REALLY COLD
AIR ENTERS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE NEXT
WORKWEEK WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER. /06/




San Angelo NWS thoughts:

THE BIG ISSUE WITH THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF AN ARCTIC
FRONT...WHICH RIGHT NOW MODELS WANT TO BRING THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THINK THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THE FRONT COULD COME
THROUGH EARLY...AS EARLY AS FRIDAY FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED...BUT COULD SEE SOME BIG
CHANGES AS THE END OF THE WEEK GETS CLOSER. IN ANY CASE...WITH
COLD AIR IN PLACE...STILL SEEING A POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WARM MOIST AIR OVERRUNS THE VERY COLD AIR AT
THE SURFACE...ASSUMING ARCTIC AIR MAKES IT THIS FAR SOUTH. HAVE
KEPT FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP IN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MAINLY
NORTH...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. JUST LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE
MOS GUIDANCE FOR SAN ANGELO ON SATURDAY...HIGHS RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 37 TO
68. WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER FEEL AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK.




Lubbock NWS:

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW AS WELL AS ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC
AIR. WILL STICK TO OUR GUNS FOR NOW...AND PLAY A GLANCING BLOW ON
FRIDAY WITH REENFORCEMENT COMING DURING THE WEEKEND. GFS IS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD AIR ATTM BUT BELIEVE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL THINK THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AND HAVE LEFT WX GRIDS
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME LATE IN THE PERIOD.





Dallas/Fort Worth NWS - not so bullish

A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE LATEST GFS RUN DOESN/T LOOK QUITE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY/S 00Z
RUN. AND THE GFS NOW ENDS THE PRECIPITATION MUCH EARLIER THAN THE
EARLIER RUNS. AFTER LOOKING AT THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF...AND THE 06Z RUN OF THE DGEX...CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS MODEL
SOLUTION FOR THIS WEEKEND/S EVENT IS MUCH LOWER THAN IT WAS 12-24
HOURS AGO. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR NOW BUT JUST PLACED RAIN ELSEWHERE. GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT...BUT WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIPITATION
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. #58




Sounds interesting if you live near Amarillo:

MODELS STILL DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT BASED ON THE DENSITY OF THE AIRMASS...CURRENTLY
BELIEVE THAT THIS LEADING FRONT SHOULD PRESS SWIFTLY BEFORE STALLING
OVER THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. USED THE LOW MEMBER OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AND DROPPED TEMPERATURES FURTHER FOR THE HIGHS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TAKES A WHILE TO REACH SATURATION...SO MAINTAINED
THE SAME START TIME OF PRECIPITATION OF FRIDAY NIGHT. A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET STILL LOOKS LIKELY. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AND COULD POSE PROBLEMS FOR ROADS AND POWER LINES. ONCE THE
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES ON SATURDAY...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD
TRANSITION TO SNOW. AT THIS TIME...SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY RANGE BETWEEN
TWO TO SIX INCHES BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS ON SUNDAY.

THE COLD AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED THROUGH MONDAY AS ANOTHER
SURGE PRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...THE PERIOD OF
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING COULD POTENTIALLY BE EXTENDED INTO
A FOURTH DAY.

NUNEZ



I'm beginning to think that by the end of the week, we'll just be talking about another plain ol cold front coming through. I'll see how things trend today before you can quote me on that.

[Portastorm]

SG ... I continue to remain bullish on this event and will bank on the ever-faithful Euro model which continues to blast the arctic front through Texas on Saturday and I still even think it may be a little sooner (Friday night/Saturday morning) than that.

I think many NWS forecasters in Texas forecast offices are hedging their bets right now because this morning's 0z and 6z GFS runs back off on the cold and precip .... model runs which I believe are faulty.

Caution is certainly merited though for the NWS though as there is no need in alarming the public until you have a good handle on the when's (cold front timing) and what's (as in what type of precip will fall) and how's (as in how cold will it get).

[Extremeweatherguy]

Also, just because the GFS is seems slightly "warmer" doesn't mean it still will not be very cold if it's scenario comes to pass. The only difference would be of a few degrees if there happened to not be as much precip. as earlier models showed. Take a look for yourself...

Here are the noon-time 2-meter temperatures that the 6z GFS shows next week. The daily high temperatures will probably end up being just a few degrees warmer than these numbers:

Monday = 43-degrees

Tuesday = 31-degrees

Wednesday = 30-degrees

Thursday = 25.5-degrees

Friday = 27-degrees

This means that there is still all the potential in the world for us to get a few sub-freezing days out of this. THAT in itself is amazing.

Also, if the GFS is too slow, then Monday could be colder than shown as well.