January 12-15, 2007 Warm Period: A Closer Look

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donsutherland1
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January 12-15, 2007 Warm Period: A Closer Look

#1 Postby donsutherland1 » Sun Jan 07, 2007 10:04 pm

Before there is concern that another huge blowtorch--worse, an unexpected one--is about to spread into the already too-frequently "torched" East, several points are in order.

1. The warmth in the January 12-15 timeframe will not rival that of the January 5-6.
2. The January 8-15 period was likely to be warm before a gradual pattern change set in.
3. During the January 8-15 timeframe, I noted on December 27 for the Washington, DC to Boston region that " One or more days with a high temperature of 60° is possible throughout the region."

The warmest part of the January 8-15 period appears likely to occur in the closing 4 days of that timeframe. The latest forecast of the NCEP ensemble mean 500 mb anomalies is consistent with a pattern that has produced warmth of the magnitude noted above.

1/7 0z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Anomalies forecast for 144 hours:
Image

That pattern is consistent with several warm ones that occurred in the January 5-20 timeframe since 1950.

Northern Hemisphere Composite 500 mb Anomalies:[b/]
Image

[b]North American 500 mb Composite Anomalies:

Image

The NCEP Ensemble forecast for 850 mb Temperature Anomalies at 144 hours follows:
Image

During those periods for which the above height anomalies were present, the highest temperature reached in select cities was:

January 14-18, 1952:
Atlanta: 70°
Boston: 53°
Burlington: 45°
New York City: 54°
Philadelphia: 58°
Richmond: 75°
Washington, DC: 74°

January 16-18, 1990:
Atlanta: 71°
Boston: 63°
Burlington: 52°
New York City: 66°
Philadelphia: 64°
Richmond: 72°
Washington, DC: 69°

January 12-14, 2005:
Atlanta: 68°
Boston: 63°
Burlington: 58°
New York City: 66°
Philadelphia: 66°
Richmond: 75°
Washington, DC: 71°

At this time, that kind of warmth should be seen as offering some insight into the potential magnitude of the 1/12-15 warm period at its warmest: 45° or better in Burlington, 50s in the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, and 60° or above in the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic region, including Philadelphia. One day topping out at 50° in Burlington and 60° in New York City and Boston is a possibility. Atlanta should top out in the 60s.
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#2 Postby donsutherland1 » Mon Jan 08, 2007 7:37 am

From the opening post in this thread:

At this time, that kind of warmth should be seen as offering some insight into the potential magnitude of the 1/12-15 warm period at its warmest: 45° or better in Burlington, 50s in the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, and 60° or above in the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic region, including Philadelphia. One day topping out at 50° in Burlington and 60° in New York City and Boston is a possibility. Atlanta should top out in the 60s.

A comparison of the 1/7 12z MOS (MEX) and 1/8 0z MOS (MEX) for the highest temperature in the 1/12-15 timeframe:

Atlanta: 61°, 64°
Boston: 50°, 49°
Burlington: 39°, 38°
New York City: 52°, 55°
Philadelphia: 54°, 58°
Richmond: 58°, 66°
Washington, DC (DCA): 54°, 61°
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#3 Postby donsutherland1 » Tue Jan 09, 2007 1:59 pm

The 1/9 12z MOS (MEX) for the highest temperature in the 1/12-15 timeframe:

Atlanta: 66°
Boston: 52°
Burlington: 38°
New York City: 53°
Philadelphia: 57°
Richmond: 64°
Washington, DC (DCA): 59°
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#4 Postby donsutherland1 » Wed Jan 10, 2007 12:02 am

The 1/10 0z MOS (MEX) for the highest temperature in the 1/12-15 timeframe:

Atlanta: 67°
Boston: 51°
Burlington: 41° (first time the MOS is showing >40° at BTV)
New York City: 54°
Philadelphia: 57°
Richmond: 66°
Washington, DC (DCA): 58°

The much anticipated pattern change should follow this warm spell.
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#5 Postby donsutherland1 » Thu Jan 11, 2007 10:32 am

The 1/11 0z MOS (MEX) for the highest temperature in the 1/12-15 timeframe:

Atlanta: 69°
Boston: 50°
Burlington: 43°
New York City: 52°
Philadelphia: 52°
Richmond: 64°
Washington, DC (DCA): 58°

It appears that Friday-Saturday could be the warmest part of the period from PHL or NYC northward.
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#6 Postby donsutherland1 » Fri Jan 12, 2007 12:03 am

The 1/12 0z MOS (MEX) for the highest temperature in the 1/12-15 timeframe:

Atlanta: 70°
Boston: 52°
Burlington: 42°
New York City: 53°
Philadelphia: 54°
Richmond: 71°
Washington, DC (DCA): 59°

For those looking ahead to the now imminent pattern change, next Thursday's low temperature is forecast to be 12° at Boston by the MOS which is weighted for climatology at that range.
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#7 Postby donsutherland1 » Sat Jan 13, 2007 6:19 pm

Highest Temperatures for the January 12-15, 2007 Period (through January 13):

Atlanta: 68°
Boston: 51°
Burlington: 44°
New York City: 56°
Philadelphia: 60°
Richmond: 72° (2nd 70° reading this month)
Washington, DC: 59°

Going out of fashion soon:
Image
Boston Public Garden (Looking toward Beacon Street)
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#8 Postby donsutherland1 » Sun Jan 14, 2007 8:44 pm

Highest Temperatures for the January 12-15, 2007 Period (through January 14):

Atlanta: 70°
Boston: 51°
Burlington: 44°
New York City: 56°
Philadelphia: 60°
Richmond: 74° (2nd consecutive 70° reading this month; 1st time since January 12-14, 2005 that Richmond had at least 2 consecutive 70° days in January)
Washington, DC: 67°
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#9 Postby donsutherland1 » Mon Jan 15, 2007 10:07 am

More on Richmond's 70° readings this month. Since 1950, Richmond has had 13 stretches of 2 more more 70° days in January and 4 stretches of 3 more more consecutive days at 70° or above. In addition, during that same timeframe, Richmond has had 8 years in which January had 3 or more 70° days and 4 years with 4 or more 70° days in January.

Data follows:

2 or more consecutive 70° days in January:

5 consecutive days:
January 23-27, 1967

3 consecutive days:
January 4-6, 1950
January 28-30, 2002
January 12-14, 2005

2 consecutive days:
January 19-20, 1951
January 21-22, 1959
January 27-28, 1974
January 13-14, 1995
January 3-4, 1997
January 3-4, 2000
January 3-4, 2004
January 3-4, 2005
January 13-14, 2007

3 or more 70° readings in January:

January 1950: 8
January 2005: 7
January 1967: 5
January 1974: 5
January 1951: 3
January 1959: 3
January 2002: 3
January 2007: 3

At 10 am, Richmond had a temperature of 65°. The MAV forecasts a high of 73° and the ETA MOS calls for 76°. All the members of the ensemble MOS are in a 73°-75° range. Hence, Richmond is likely to have a 3rd consecutive 70° day and 4th 70° day of the month, putting it in "special" company. Given the evolving pattern change, I don't expect any further 70° days for January 2007.
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#10 Postby donsutherland1 » Tue Jan 16, 2007 7:24 am

Verification:

At this time, that kind of warmth should be seen as offering some insight into the potential magnitude of the 1/12-15 warm period at its warmest: 45° or better in Burlington, 50s in the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, and 60° or above in the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic region, including Philadelphia. One day topping out at 50° in Burlington and 60° in New York City and Boston is a possibility. Atlanta should top out in the 60s.

Highest Temperatures for the January 12-15, 2007 Period:

Atlanta: 73°
Boston: 51°
Burlington: 44°
New York City: 57°
Philadelphia: 64°
Richmond: 74°
Washington, DC: 68°
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