Texas winter wx thread#5 - big changes on the way eventually

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Almost posted the Corpus AFD, but just saw KatDad post it.

I hope the folks in Brownsville don't discount this event like they have almost every event since I don't know how long which includes the Christmas snow of 2004.
JB in his morning blog said a citrius freeze is not out of the question. This afternoon the Brownsville AFD treated this front like a typical Pacific or modified Canadian front.

Like you wrote in a post last night ... and what we have agreed on ... the days of the sharp, perceptive NWS forecasters in Brownsville are (sadly) long gone. Those guys are probably in Boca right now ... drinking daquiris and golfing each morning!

I recall back in the 80's when we had the Arctic outbreaks of 83 and 89 those guys were talking about it and getting the Ag interests ready about this far out. I guess now with the Net and thus, multiple other sources for weather info (like private forecasters), the big farming interests down there will start taking precautions. My worry is for the folks down there that don't have access to the info and rely on the TV "Mets" (some are not Mets) for their weather and they just repeat what the local NWS puts out there.

The Arctic air is just not going to stop in central Texas or the Coastal Bend
Why they don't acknowledge it is puzzling?

[TexasStooge]

Wow. NWS DFW issuing the SWS this early? It really must look good for winter weather then.

Could be. We're promised winter weather a few days ago, and this time we may get our wish...again.

The following weekend forecasts around Texas doesn't look like much, but in about 3-5 days, it'll change. I just hope North Texas gets a little less freezing rain and a little more snow.

DALLAS/FORT WORTH
Saturday: 50°F
Saturday Night: 27°F
Sunday: 34°F
_____________________________________________________________

SHERMAN
Saturday: 48°F
Saturday Night: 25°F
Sunday: 32°F
_____________________________________________________________

ABILENE
Saturday: 46°F
Saturday Night: 26°F
Sunday: 31°F
_____________________________________________________________

LUBBOCK
Saturday: 30°F
Saturday Night: 16°F
Sunday: 25°F

[jeff]

A word of warning today...for those across the US which have suffered one of the warmest winters on record to date...change is coming and in a big way. The shattering record high of 72 in NYC yesterday and temps. above 30 degrees above average over most of the northern US is going to end in the next 7 days as bitter cold arctic air mass is unleashed southward and by early next week portions of the northern plains will have highs of -20 to -10 instead of the 50's and 60's.

Discussion:

Major upper air pattern change which has been suggested since mid December in teleconnection data and large scale oscillations is now upon us and within the operational forecasting period of most models. Very cold arctic air with Siberian origins will be flooding NE Alaska and NW Canada over the coming days just in time for the buckling of the upper level flow. Massive ridging builds strongly northward deep into Alaska along the west coast of the US with a deep long wave trough carving out over the Rockies and central US plains. Bitter cold arctic air mass is released southward into this trough and pours into the US by mid week.

Massive 1050mb to 1052mb arctic high pressure cell dams against the front range of the Rockies and builds southward with the center over S Canada. Bone chilling cold (temps of -20 to -30 F) flood southward into the northern plains. Arctic front blast southward down the plains with large swath of ice and snow expected. Feel the GFS is too slow in the frontal timing and will maintain a faster southward push given the very dense and very cold air. Gravity itself will control the frontal movement S of KS as the upper air pattern will be SW aloft...however we have seen many times before, arctic air masses move right through unfavorable upper air flow due to their dense surface air.

Arctic front reaches TX late Thursday and oozes southward Friday through N TX (late) and by late Saturday and early Sunday to the coast. Incredible temp. falls will occur with highs in the 60's and 70's on Saturday and highs only in the 20's and 30's on Sunday.

Precipitation / Temperature Concerns:

Intensity of this air mass is not to be ignored as the latest GFS drops temps. below freezing by the 15th/16th and keeps them below freezing for several days (even for highs). Pattern setup and potential for reinforcements of cold over the snow covered US central plains supports a prolonged period of very cold temps. GFS and ECMWF have extremely cold 850mb temps. (-16 to -18C) over the TX panhandle and NW TX the middle of next week (17th) with surface temps. as low as -1's to 1' over OK and 10's and 20's over N TX in the GFS.

Feel the GFS guidance is way too warm and will need to cut a good 15 or more degrees off on Sunday the 14th over SE TX. Deep upper trough hangs back over the SW US producing strong upglide over the bitter cold at the surface. Precip. breaks out behind the front the 15th through the 18th with profiles very supportive of freezing rain and sleet. A long duration icing event may be in the making for a large part of TX starting late on the 15th and lasting much of the following week. Accumulations could be substantial and easily overwhelming to the power grid system and vegetation across the state.

As with all winter weather "threats and events" in Texas the timing of the cold combined with the moisture is key. Frontal timing will no doubt change over the next 7 days, and the models will waffle around with the temp. profiles and P-types up until the event or non-event is to happen. When dealing with freezing rain and icing the key is the surface temps and rainfall intensities. Forecast confidence beyond Saturday the 14th is extremely low and large changes can be expected. If the current model projections hold a significant and long duration period of sub-freezing temps. and winter precip. will be in store for nearly the entire state.

[gboudx]

Thanks Jeff.

We have our oldest kids bday party on Monday so we're paying very close attention to this and wondering if we may need to cancel.

From Jeff's post, we're gonna plan to get some extra groceries and water later this week if this icing situation looks to happen more confidently.

[Portastorm]

Thanks Jeff.

We have our oldest kids bday party on Monday so we're paying very close attention to this and wondering if we may need to cancel.

From Jeff's post, we're gonna plan to get some extra groceries and water later this week if this icing situation looks to happen more confidently.

You know this brings up a good point ... while we all have to be careful not to get swept up into Winter Storm 2007 Hysteria ... if this thing looks even more certain come Tuesday or so, we would be well served to stock up on groceries and heating items (i.e. firewood) ... and to let our friends and family know before the panic buying sets in.

I figure once the TV mets latch on to this ... folks will start to get crazy at the stores.

Part of me is excited about what could be a historic event ... the other part of me is absolutely dreading any kind of ice storm. Being without power and in the cold and dark really sucks.

[Yankeegirl]

It totally reminds me of when there is a hurricane lurking out there in the Gulf... I am also going to go get some firewood and such for the weekend event... even if there isnt one, I still like to use the fireplace and the wood wont go to waste.... I am looking forward to the next few days to see how much the modles flip flop over this.... If they dont move too much I am going to get nervous....

[gboudx]

I'm dreading any power outages. I know everyone knows this, but it should be re-iterated; if you do not have power at home, then the grocery stores and gas stations probably don't either. We should probably approach this like if it was a hurricane approaching; stock up on groceries, fill-up the vehicles and get some batteries. We're not panicking, but we'll be cautious.

DFW sending out the SWS a week early definitely has my attention.

[Yankeegirl]

I wonder how long its going to take the Houston area to mention this cold snap?

[GeneratorPower]

I would be happy to help anyone out there with Generator questions. Helping people be prepared electrically is my every day specialty. Send me a PM if you need anything.

Please, make sure you have a generator and know how to use it. It gets very cold without one.

[double D]

Well the 18z run of the gfs is not much help on the arctic front. It continues to hold up the cold air before bringing it down on Sunday and also looks a bit warmer.... it is the 18z after all, and we all know the models will flip-flop many times before next weekend.

I think we need to be careful not to push the panic button to soon, because lots can happen in a week and I don't want all of us to be dissapointed if this doesn't pan out.

[jasons2k]

In my experience the DFW tends to have very few power issues with icing events. For one - there aren't that many trees - especially out in the suburbs - a 10' stick in the front yard doesn't pose a power hazard. Secondly, almost all the utilities are underground utilities. Helps alot.

Anyway, it looks like this front means business so I'm going to get some extra wrapping for my vegetation just in case. I'm not ready to buy into the "sky is falling" stuff just yet though - it's still a week away and we all know things can change on a dime.

[Yankeegirl]

Hey J, nice seeing ya on! Hope everything is ok with the family.... and I totally agree with you.... I am not going to buy into anything as of yet... this might change Wednesday or so if the forecast holds the same....

[aggiecutter]

I think the only disappointment with this weather situation will be people without power. Hopefully, the cold air will be dense enough here in NE Texas for us to have sleet and snow. However, for the people in central and south Texas, this could be a prolonged freezing rain event. I am well acquainted with what an ice storm can do. In December of 2000, I was without power for over a week, and I was one of the first residential areas to get my power turned back on.

[aggiecutter]

Picture of December 2000 ice storm in the Ark-La-Tex.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/ChristmasIceStorm.htm

[Johnny]

Unlike the arctic front we had come through the end of November last year, this one won't be modifying much. Like I said, I'd love to see some snow but you can have the freezing rain.

Ok, I think it's time we send out a search party.......


Come on out AFM!

[southerngale]

While agreeing with Jason that things can change dramatically and this could all be hype for nothing, I also take the gbdoux approach...might as well be cautious.
I just "ordered" a cord of wood...gonna split it with my parents. We could use the firewood anyway, not just if we lose electricity, so it's not like it would go to waste.

After going through the ice storm in January 1997, I'd rather be a little more prepared and have it be a non-event, then be stuck without firewood, batteries, etc. just in case. That was a miserable time. I did not have a fireplace in my little rented house then, and we didn't have power for many days. A lot of branches and trees were lost during that ice storm. The snapping of branches and crashing of trees sounds were unreal, and a bit scary. You'd hear the snap and automatically kinda "duck" with your hands over your head until you heard it hit the ground. lol

I know I've mentioned that ice storm few times on the board, but if you missed it, here's a post I made about it last year:

Here's another example of an ice storm. If you want more information on it, just Google January 1997 Ice Storm Beaumont Texas or something like that. SW La. was affected as well.

I posted this in another thread a little while ago as a response to someone else about staying below freezing for days in SE Tx.

And more recently in January 1997, over here in Beaumont and even closer to the coast in Nederland and Port Arthur, we were below freezing for several days and without power for nearly a week due to the only real Ice Storm I've ever seen. I stayed bundled up like crazy. You couldn't shower. You practically froze to death just trying to go to the bathroom!
The only heat we had in my rented house was a small grill. We'd fire it up outside and try to thaw out our hands a little while cooking some of the food that lay in the opened freezer door. I remember feeling like my feet were going to just break off...man, was it miserable!!

1/4 inch of ice was on some surfaces and 1 inch on others. The effects of the storm were quite devastating, something you don't really expect way down here in the winter. Several million dollars in damage.

My parents had a fireplace at the time, but I couldn't drive to get there, or anywhere for that matter. Everyone was just stuck. Anyway, it wouldn't be quite as bad for me now, since I do have a fireplace. At least I'd have some heat! That was a miserable time...I'm glad we didn't get anything close to that.

And this was posted last month when people were talking about an Arctic outbreak reaching South and Southeast Texas.

Now this is extreme for Southeast Texas.

January 1997 Ice Storm - below freezing for several days - almost everyone was without power...for nearly a week. I didn't have a fireplace at the time and I can remember wearing a bunch of socks and shoes and my feet were still frozen. I was with a couple of friends and we bundled up the best we could trying to stay warm. We had a grill so we were able to cook and get a little heat from that occasionally. lol
We had meat...just opened the freezer and it all stayed fresh. You would constantly hear the snapping sound of branches falling everywhere. As more branches fell, more people lost power.

Excuse the bad pics...they were scanned on my mediocre scanner.

[double D]

Those are some impressive pictures aggiecutter and southerngale, it's a good reminder of the damage that these ice storms can cause. Hopefully the depth of the cold air will be lower and we can get more sleet than ice out of this....I think the firewood sellers are going to make lots of money in the coming weeks.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, sleet would be the best. It doesn't stick to anything and is usually the easiest to drive in. Also, there is little to no risk of trees or power poles snapping. I would take an inch of sleet over an inch of ice any day.

[richtrav]

the days of the sharp, perceptive NWS forecasters in Brownsville are (sadly) long gone. Those guys are probably in Boca right now ... drinking daquiris and golfing each morning!

Actually I think at least one retired to Alpine, for a cooler climate (what's the point in moving 2000 miles to South Florida when the climate in Brownsville is much like Central Florida? much cheaper too)

It has to get incredibly cold in the rest of the state for it to make a serious dent at the southern tip of the state, something like 10F in San Antonio and near-0 in Dallas. Even an airmass freeze to the low 20s/upper teens in SA usually only brings about 27-30 to B'ville, not cold enough to seriously injure citrus.

By the way how cold does it look like southern Arizona is going to get?

[cheezyWXguy]

While agreeing with Jason that things can change dramatically and this could all be hype for nothing, I also take the gbdoux approach...might as well be cautious.
I just "ordered" a cord of wood...gonna split it with my parents. We could use the firewood anyway, not just if we lose electricity, so it's not like it would go to waste.

After going through the ice storm in January 1997, I'd rather be a little more prepared and have it be a non-event, then be stuck without firewood, batteries, etc. just in case. That was a miserable time. I did not have a fireplace in my little rented house then, and we didn't have power for many days. A lot of branches and trees were lost during that ice storm. The snapping of branches and crashing of trees sounds were unreal, and a bit scary. You'd hear the snap and automatically kinda "duck" with your hands over your head until you heard it hit the ground. lol

I know I've mentioned that ice storm few times on the board, but if you missed it, here's a post I made about it last year:

Here's another example of an ice storm. If you want more information on it, just Google January 1997 Ice Storm Beaumont Texas or something like that. SW La. was affected as well.

I posted this in another thread a little while ago as a response to someone else about staying below freezing for days in SE Tx.

And more recently in January 1997, over here in Beaumont and even closer to the coast in Nederland and Port Arthur, we were below freezing for several days and without power for nearly a week due to the only real Ice Storm I've ever seen. I stayed bundled up like crazy. You couldn't shower. You practically froze to death just trying to go to the bathroom!
The only heat we had in my rented house was a small grill. We'd fire it up outside and try to thaw out our hands a little while cooking some of the food that lay in the opened freezer door. I remember feeling like my feet were going to just break off...man, was it miserable!!

1/4 inch of ice was on some surfaces and 1 inch on others. The effects of the storm were quite devastating, something you don't really expect way down here in the winter. Several million dollars in damage.

My parents had a fireplace at the time, but I couldn't drive to get there, or anywhere for that matter. Everyone was just stuck. Anyway, it wouldn't be quite as bad for me now, since I do have a fireplace. At least I'd have some heat! That was a miserable time...I'm glad we didn't get anything close to that.

And this was posted last month when people were talking about an Arctic outbreak reaching South and Southeast Texas.

Now this is extreme for Southeast Texas.

January 1997 Ice Storm - below freezing for several days - almost everyone was without power...for nearly a week. I didn't have a fireplace at the time and I can remember wearing a bunch of socks and shoes and my feet were still frozen. I was with a couple of friends and we bundled up the best we could trying to stay warm. We had a grill so we were able to cook and get a little heat from that occasionally. lol
We had meat...just opened the freezer and it all stayed fresh. You would constantly hear the snapping sound of branches falling everywhere. As more branches fell, more people lost power.

Excuse the bad pics...they were scanned on my mediocre scanner.

Wow...i was only 4 at the time of that and i can still remeber what I think was it here in NTX...i was in the car with my mom and we were driving home from the galleria in Dallas and it was raining pretty good... suddenly it stopped for a moment and it was raining and sleeting at a pretty good pace...by the time we got home there was a decent blanket of sleet on the ground and it was still comming down...this was either the jan 97 or the 2000...im not sure, but both were close to the same