Texas winter wx thread#4 - big changes on the way eventually

[gboudx]

Portastorm, I'm gonna line-up and take a swing at this football. We'll either fall flat on our backs together, or kick the winning FG.

[Portastorm]

Portastorm, I'm gonna line-up and take a swing at this football. We'll either fall flat on our backs together, or kick the winning FG.

Alright gboudx!! We can do this ... I feel good about this one.

[gboudx]

Let's see if AFM chimes in to support Jeff's opinion, or offer something slightly different. I'll post the forecast from one of his colleague's and former classmates as well; the lovely Kristine Kahanek from WFAA here in DFW. She's usually good about not toting the party line.

[Portastorm]

Let's see if AFM chimes in to support Jeff's opinion, or offer something slightly different. I'll post the forecast from one of his colleague's and former classmates as well; the lovely Kristine Kahanek from WFAA here in DFW. She's usually good about not toting the party line.

That would be great ... would like to see AFM's thoughts.

And yes I know Kristine. Got to know her when she lived and worked here in Austin and she was active in our AMS chapter. That beauty is matched by wits. She's smart and savvy when it comes to forecasting. I'll be curious to hear her thoughts, too.

[Johnny]

I'm surprised EWG hasn't been posting more since the arctic air looks to be headed right down into Texas with possible winter precipitation.

This could possibly be due to most everyone here giving him such a hard time on his enthusiasm for the weather. I like to give out a few jabs from time to time but jeez, a few of y'all here jab the heck out of him. IMO, the ones that are doing it need to let up a little. Kind of sucks since I enjoy the info he posts up.

Let's go EWG! Bring it to us man! lol

[HarlequinBoy]

Maybe he'll post again once the cooldown gets closer.

00Z GFS ENSEMBLES OFFERING A STRONG SIGNAL OF A POTENTIAL DEEP UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. BY LATE NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS RUN
BRINGS A SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BY NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS DETAILS...BUT THIS WILL
OBVIOUSLY BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY.

That's from Tulsa's discussion.

[KatDaddy]

wxman post over at Channel 11 board displays a snow cover map which shows snow cover across N and NE TX. He also indcates another map shows snow cover all the way to the Rio Grande Valley near Corpus Christi.

http://www.khou.com/forums/viewtopic.ph ... 2bf4e2be14

[Toady1]

Let's see if AFM chimes in to support Jeff's opinion, or offer something slightly different. I'll post the forecast from one of his colleague's and former classmates as well; the lovely Kristine Kahanek from WFAA here in DFW. She's usually good about not toting the party line.

That would be great ... would like to see AFM's thoughts.

And yes I know Kristine. Got to know her when she lived and worked here in Austin and she was active in our AMS chapter. That beauty is matched by wits. She's smart and savvy when it comes to forecasting. I'll be curious to hear her thoughts, too.

FYI - Back in the late 90's, Kristine used to work here in Austin for a local news firm. One morning, after an arctic outbreak the day before, while getting ready to go to work I was watching Kristine Kahanek on the local station giving her forecast for the day. She stated that though it was drizzling and temps around freezing that the Austin area should not expect any type of wintry precip until late that evening if any at all. Needless to say I took her word and drove to work. When I approached the interstate it began to sleet, then I hit black ice and almost flipped my truck. Needless to say the city shut down that morning, iwith over 500 accidents before noon. Here in Austin, that outbreak turned out to be one of the most severe ice storms in the last 10 years. Perhaps her forecasting, savvieness, and determinations to not tote the party line have improved.

[TexasStooge]

How much of a winter weather would the DFW area get if any?

That's the million dollar question right here.

[gboudx]

Toady1, was she the only met to get burned by that "surprise" icing event in Austin?

[Toady1]

Toady1, was she the only met to get burned by that "surprise" icing event in Austin?

Actually, if I remember correctly, yes. Im not taking anything away from her or her skills. Im sure she is a good meteo. It was many years ago, but since I actually shook (not do to the cold) for the entire day after my near vehicle flip I will never forget the forecast burn. When I read the post, I just felt the need to respond. I think what happend was that since the air had just arrived, the ground was considered too warm for ice to form that early, but the air was much colder than first anticipated. No big. Things like that happen.

This place could use another ice storm.

[Portastorm]

Let's see if AFM chimes in to support Jeff's opinion, or offer something slightly different. I'll post the forecast from one of his colleague's and former classmates as well; the lovely Kristine Kahanek from WFAA here in DFW. She's usually good about not toting the party line.

That would be great ... would like to see AFM's thoughts.

And yes I know Kristine. Got to know her when she lived and worked here in Austin and she was active in our AMS chapter. That beauty is matched by wits. She's smart and savvy when it comes to forecasting. I'll be curious to hear her thoughts, too.

FYI - Back in the late 90's, Kristine used to work here in Austin for a local news firm. One morning, after an arctic outbreak the day before, while getting ready to go to work I was watching Kristine Kahanek on the local station giving her forecast for the day. She stated that though it was drizzling and temps around freezing that the Austin area should not expect any type of wintry precip until late that evening if any at all. Needless to say I took her word and drove to work. When I approached the interstate it began to sleet, then I hit black ice and almost flipped my truck. Needless to say the city shut down that morning, iwith over 500 accidents before noon. Here in Austin, that outbreak turned out to be one of the most severe ice storms in the last 10 years. Perhaps her forecasting, savvieness, and determinations to not tote the party line have improved.

Well first of all, every pro met misses a few forecasts here and there.

Secondly, Kristine worked in Austin from 1993 to 1997. Which ice event are you talking about .. the one in January 1997?

Third ... unlike many on-air mets, Kristine has an actual meteorology degree from a very good meteorology school -- Texas A&M. She also worked for the NWS prior to going on TV.

All of this to say that I'd take her forecasts over most TV mets that I have seen over the years, especially here in Austin. Unlike most of them on TV who simply rip and read the NWS forecast ... she gives it some thought and if she disagrees, she's not afraid to go out on the limb. If you have lived in Austin long, you'll remember that the venerable Troy Kimmel was a lot like that, too.

Anyhow ... sorry to hear you got burned (or iced) that day!

[CaptinCrunch]

My vision of NTX in the coming weeks!

[Kelarie]

My vision of NTX in the coming weeks!

LOL

Is that your vision for Austin as well??

[CaptinCrunch]

My vision of NTX in the coming weeks!

LOL

Is that your vision for Austin as well??

from Amarillo to Corpis!!

[TexasStooge]

My vision of NTX in the coming weeks!

LOL

Is that your vision for Austin as well??

from Amarillo to Corpis!!

[southerngale]

Portastorm, I'm gonna line-up and take a swing at this football. We'll either fall flat on our backs together, or kick the winning FG.

Alright gboudx!! We can do this ... I feel good about this one.

Oh wow. BOTH of you?! Even gboudx?!

hmmm






Btw, I need your participation...
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=92172

[Toady1]

Let's see if AFM chimes in to support Jeff's opinion, or offer something slightly different. I'll post the forecast from one of his colleague's and former classmates as well; the lovely Kristine Kahanek from WFAA here in DFW. She's usually good about not toting the party line.

That would be great ... would like to see AFM's thoughts.

And yes I know Kristine. Got to know her when she lived and worked here in Austin and she was active in our AMS chapter. That beauty is matched by wits. She's smart and savvy when it comes to forecasting. I'll be curious to hear her thoughts, too.

FYI - Back in the late 90's, Kristine used to work here in Austin for a local news firm. One morning, after an arctic outbreak the day before, while getting ready to go to work I was watching Kristine Kahanek on the local station giving her forecast for the day. She stated that though it was drizzling and temps around freezing that the Austin area should not expect any type of wintry precip until late that evening if any at all. Needless to say I took her word and drove to work. When I approached the interstate it began to sleet, then I hit black ice and almost flipped my truck. Needless to say the city shut down that morning, iwith over 500 accidents before noon. Here in Austin, that outbreak turned out to be one of the most severe ice storms in the last 10 years. Perhaps her forecasting, savvieness, and determinations to not tote the party line have improved.

Well first of all, every pro met misses a few forecasts here and there.

Secondly, Kristine worked in Austin from 1993 to 1997. Which ice event are you talking about .. the one in January 1997?

Third ... unlike many on-air mets, Kristine has an actual meteorology degree from a very good meteorology school -- Texas A&M. She also worked for the NWS prior to going on TV.

All of this to say that I'd take her forecasts over most TV mets that I have seen over the years, especially here in Austin. Unlike most of them on TV who simply rip and read the NWS forecast ... she gives it some thought and if she disagrees, she's not afraid to go out on the limb. If you have lived in Austin long, you'll remember that the venerable Troy Kimmel was a lot like that, too.

Anyhow ... sorry to hear you got burned (or iced) that day!

January 1997 I believe. Certainly the burn was not limited to that forecast. Her fello associates at the station had input on the forecast Im sure. (sorry for the post traumatic flashback). I'm sure modeling has improved since then. I did learn to trust my instincts however.....the instinct that when it's around 32 slow down !!!

[southerngale]

Speaking of the January, 1997 ice storm, here's a post (with a few pictures) that I made about it last year. I still haven't forgotten that feeling of frozen toes/feet for days!

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... ce#1224567

[Extremeweatherguy]

things continue to look more and more interesting. Can't wait to see how the model runs and ideas evolve over the next few days. Hard to believe that by this time next week the pattern-changing front will probably already be on our doorstep and within 10 days a winter weather event is possible for parts of the state.