Severe Tropical Storm Clovis (TC 06S) in S. Indian

[HURAKAN]

It seems it's trying to develop an eye with 3/4 of the eyewall developed!!!

[P.K.]

Up to 60kts now, 980hPa minimum pressure at the centre. A 54kt sustained wind has already been recorded.

WTIO22 FMEE 311812
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 31/12/2006 AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 31/12/2006 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CLOVIS) 980 HPA
POSITION: 15.8S / 54.3E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING
LOCALLY UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60KT AND VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30NM RADIUS FROM THE
CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS
FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2007/01/01 AT 06 UTC:
17.4S / 53.8E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H, VALID 2007/01/01 AT 18 UTC:
18.6S / 53.4E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES QUICKLY SINCE THE RECENT PAST HOURS, REACHING THE
INTENSITY OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM, AT THE LIMIT AOF CYCLONE INTENSITY;
THE CENTER HAS TRANSITED NORTHWEST OF TROMELIN ISLAND DURING THE LAST
HOUR, WHERE IT HAS BEEN RECORDED 54 KT (10 MIN AVERAGE MAX WINDS), WITH
GUSTS OF 70KT
..
REACHING ALMOST TH
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS ,
INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AND THEN SLOWN DOWN AND RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS
BEYOND 48H TO 72H.


.

[Coredesat]

Just noticed this in the MetArea bulletin from Mauritus as well. Nothing from La Reunion yet.

PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 24 HOURS:

THE WAVE EVOLVING NEAR 05S 68E HAS DEVELOPED INTO A WEAK LOW NEAR
05S 69E AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGN OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS BOUND TO INCREASE
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BONDO IS NOW STARTING
TO TRACK SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

Nothing on JTWC or La Reunion yet. The 12Z CMC is fairly bullish with this system, as it was with Bondo.

[Coredesat]

493
TPXS10 KGWC 312123
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CLOVIS)
B. 31/2031Z (117)
C. 15.7S/3
D. 53.9E/7
E. FIVE/MET5
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:W1.5/6HRS -31/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN.

AODT: 4.5 (UCCR)

BERNHARDT

[JonathanBelles]

a new years storm!

[Coredesat]

Yes, but you must remember that a year-crossing storm is not as spectacular in the southern hemisphere, given that this is part of their season.

Still, it's the second year in a row we have started a new year with an active tropical cyclone.

[P.K.]

Two rare things from La Reunion yesterday. 1) A 1500 GMT update 2) A comment in the end of the public advisory.

"CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
IL SERA REACTUALISE DEMAIN A 04H30. BONNE ANNEE A TOUS."

That is "happy new year to all" in English.

Wonder if it is in anyway related to the very late update tonight that is yet to be released.

[HURAKAN]

It seems we have a cyclone with hurricane winds!!!

[JonathanBelles]

very nice! what are the winds now?

[HURAKAN]

very nice! what are the winds now?

65 knots

[JonathanBelles]

thanks

[P.K.]

About to make landfall with 60kt winds.

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/5/20062007
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CLOVIS)

2.A POSITION 2007/01/03 AT 0000 UTC :
20.5S / 48.9E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/01/03 12 UTC: 20.7S/48.0E OVERLAND.
24H: 2007/01/04 00 UTC: 21.5S/47.2E OVERLAND.
36H: 2007/01/04 12 UTC: 22.2S/47.0E OVERLAND.
48H: 2007/01/05 00 UTC: 23.1S/47.0E OVERLAND.
60H: 2007/01/05 12 UTC: 24.0S/47.1E OVERLAND.
72H: 2007/01/06 00 UTC: 25.4S/46.8E DISSIPATING.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0- ; CI=4.0
THE CONVECTION DOES NOT CONSOLIDATE DURABLY AROUND THE CENTRE,
CONVECTION ORGANISES INTO CDO PATTERN.
THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY TRACKED MORE WESTWARDS, DUE TO THE LOW PRESENT
WEST TO THE SYSTEME AND THE RIDGE REBIULTING SOUTH TO THE SYSTEM. IT IS
NOW EXPECTED TO LAND ON THE MALAGASY COAST IN THE NEXT HOURS SOUTH TO
MAHANORO..

[Coredesat]

Spammer already reported.

[Aquawind]

Spammer already reported.

Account disabled and the multiples posts deleted..

Thanks for reporting to someone..