Florida - potential for severe weather

[dizzyfish]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/html/tbw/

This is the link for Central Florida. Please be careful if you are out.
Tornado watch until 1pm
Potential for damaging winds and heavy rain.
Local forecasters are advising people to either leave now if they need to be somewhere or wait until the line passes. They also said the buoys have recorded wind gusts between 50 and 75mph.

Merry Christmas and keep your eyes to the sky.

[Nimbus]

Thank god for radar could be some tornado's in that squall line yipes!

[dizzyfish]

Snip from the 8:30 disco Tampa Bay......

RADAR DATA
IS ALSO INDICATING SEVERAL CELLS WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER ROTATION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE 12Z TBW UPPER AIR SOUNDING DATA
INDICATES ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
ACTIVITY IN THE AREA...MAINLY FROM LEVY TO HILLSBOROUGH/PINELLAS
COUNTIES FOR WHICH A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT

[Aquawind]

Picking lots of hail and meso signatures on Radar.. Looks pretty impressive alrighty.. Timing should be about right for maximum daytime heating as it passes over the peninsula today. Another tornado box will be issued.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2305.html

[Aquawind]

New Tornado Watch!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/


SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 884
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM EST MON DEC 25 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND PART OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1010 AM UNTIL
500 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 882...WW 883...

DISCUSSION...INTENSE SQUALL LINE WILL SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS MUCH OF FL
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SLOWER MOVING UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG WITH 0-1 KM
SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 THIS MORNING. AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES
DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING...THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE.
THREATS OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.


...EVANS


SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 884
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM EST MON DEC 25 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND PART OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1010 AM UNTIL
500 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 882...WW 883...

DISCUSSION...INTENSE SQUALL LINE WILL SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS MUCH OF FL
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SLOWER MOVING UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG WITH 0-1 KM
SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 THIS MORNING. AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES
DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING...THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE.
THREATS OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.


...EVANS


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 251505
WOU4

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 884
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM EST MON DEC 25 2006

TORNADO WATCH 884 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC009-015-021-027-043-049-051-055-061-069-071-081-085-093-095-
097-099-105-111-115-117-127-252200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0884.061225T1510Z-061225T2200Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BREVARD CHARLOTTE COLLIER
DESOTO GLADES HARDEE
HENDRY HIGHLANDS INDIAN RIVER
LAKE LEE MANATEE
MARTIN OKEECHOBEE ORANGE
OSCEOLA PALM BEACH POLK
SARASOTA SEMINOLE ST. LUCIE
VOLUSIA


AMZ550-555-610-GMZ656-856-252200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0884.061225T1510Z-061225T2200Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET FL OUT 20 NM

LAKE OKEECHOBEE

COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...MFL...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW4
WW 884 TORNADO FL CW 251510Z - 252200Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20NNE DAB/DAYTONA BEACH FL/ - 25S APF/NAPLES FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /13NE OMN - 48S FMY/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.

LAT...LON 29447993 25798080 25798273 29448191

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.


Watch 884 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[dizzyfish]

Tornado Warning....

TORNADO WARNING
FLC101-251700-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0022.061225T1632Z-061225T1700Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1132 AM EST MON DEC 25 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN PASCO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL NOON EST

* AT 1132 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 12 MILES NORTH OF DADE CITY...MOVING NORTH AT 155 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL EASTERN PASCO COUNTY BY 1130 AM EST.
DADE CITY BY 1140 AM EST.

[MiamiensisWx]

While instability across southern and southeastern Florida remains quite hospitable and good for severe thunderstorm development at most levels (especially with maximum heating occurring and strong converging southeasterly low-level wind flow via a fairly tight surface gradient), lack of better divergence is the main problem preventing a more widespread event. The strong southeasterly surface flow is creating current very warm surface temperatures in southeastern and interior southern Florida ahead of the currently approach squall line over the western and southwest Florida coasts. This may be one of those events where all the pieces come together for a good severe event, but one kink in the system prevents it from it's full maximum potential in terms of extent and intensity.

If divergence was better, we would probably no doubt be seeing developing thunderstorms ahead of the squall line by now. The surface heating is quite efficient across southeastern Florida now.

Miami NWS has released a good morning discussion today discussing the synoptics at hand playing a part in the setup...

000
FXUS62 KMFL 251557
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1057 AM EST MON DEC 25 2006

.UPDATE...
HAVE ALREADY UPDATED CWFMFL AND ZFPMFL TO INCLUDE ISSUANCE OF
TORNADO WATCH 884 UNTIL 5 PM EST. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
SHORT TERM PORTION OF FORECAST...OTHER THAN TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. FORWARD
EXTRAPOLATION OF SQUALL LINE PLACES THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION
AROUND KAPF SHORTLY AFTER 25/18Z...WITH THE LINE LIKELY MOVING
EASTWARD FASTER THAN MOST AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
AT THIS TIME. STILL ANTICIPATING GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO
BE ACROSS AREA CURRENTLY IN TORNADO WATCH...OR GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM EVERGLADES CITY TO BOCA RATON. ADDITIONAL
FORECAST UPDATES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE OVER E TX/LA HAS GENERATED A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE N GULF OF MEX THAT WILL MOVE NE TOWARD THE TN RIVER VALLEY
TODAY. A SQUALL LINE PRECEDING THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM...EXTENDING FROM
THE E CENTRAL GULF OF MEX NE THROUGH THE FL BIG BEND AREA AND ACROSS
N FLA...WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING. BUT A SECOND SHORT WAVE
..CURRENTLY DIVING S INTO W TX/N OL` MEX...WILL CATCH UP TO AND
PHASE WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE...RE-STRENGTHENING THE SQUALL LINE
..WHICH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLA PENINSULA TODAY...EXITING
THE SE TONIGHT.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...VERY WARM AND HUMID
ACROSS S FLA WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE IN MIAMI AND SOME
INTERIOR LOCALES TODAY...IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME
AMPLE SUNSHINE. ANY HEATING TODAY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG VEERING OF WINDS TODAY HAS INCREASED
HELICITY OVER S FLA AS THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL
LINE KEEPS A LOW LEVEL SE WIND FLOW OVER S FLA THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL. BUT THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
..UNLESS TRAINING OCCURS...SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS IN ANY ONE AREA. THEN THE SQUALL LINE APPROACHES THE W FL
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVE...MOVING ONTO THE W COAST
ACROSS S FLA OVERNIGHT. APPEARS THAT SUBTLE BUT SOME IMPORTANT
CHANGES ARE NOW BEING DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. THE BEST UPPER
DYNAMICS STAY NORTH OF THE REGION AND HELICITY DECREASES SIGNIFI
-CANTLY AS WINDS BECOME SW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE AIR MASS
OVER S FLA THOUGH REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE...AND THE RAIN CHANCES
ALL AREAS ARE HIGH BUT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE LESS IN AMOUNT. BUT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SPEED SHEAR ALOFT. A
MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. BUT WILL
MAINTAIN THE BIG THREAT OF STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. AFTER
THE SQUALL LINE PASSES...CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN WITH
THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS S FLA LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS DECREASE
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY TUE WITH BELOW NORM TEMPS...WHAT A
CONCEPT...FOR S FLA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LOWS MON TONIGHT
MOSTLY IN THE 60S WITH UPPER 50S NW INTERIOR. HIGHS TUE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S NW TO SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

EXTENDED FORECAST...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SE U.S. THROUGH
MIDWEEK THEN MOVES E INTO THE ATLC INTO NEXT WEEKEND. COOL AGAIN WED
(MID 60S NW TO LOWER 70S SE) AND WED NIGHT NIGHT (LOWER 40S NW TO
THE MID 50S SE)...THEN A GRADUAL WARMUP BEGINS AGAIN AS EASTERLY
FLOW REDEVELOPS.

AVIATION...CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST FOR TODAY. GIVEN THE AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND THE LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE...CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS...SO THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
LOUISIANA AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD POSSIBLY BRING A
LARGE SCALE SQUALL LINE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE EASTERN
GULF EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS
MAY RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL LOCAL TERMINALS DURING THIS PERIOD.

MARINE...INCREASING SE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING S/SW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAD TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WITH
CAUTION FOR BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEE DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING
WINDS. WINDS LULL A BIT TONIGHT WITH CAUTION CRITERIA FOR WINDS ATLC
AND GULF WATERS. INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOP TUE WITH ADVISORY
CRITERIA AGAIN ATLC AND GULF WATERS. SEAS IN GULF STREAM INCREASE
DUE TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND A NW SWELL ADDS TO THE SEAS IN THE
GULF.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THROUGH TODAY OR TUE.

CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AT MIAMI IS 85 DEGREES SET
IN 1941...85 AT IMMOKALEE SET IN 1998 AND 86 AT THE ROYAL PALM
RANGER STATION SET IN 1998.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE
BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT
20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL
EXTENDING FROM20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

[Scorpion]

Starting to see some thunderstorms pop up ahead of the line

[Mesohunter]

Embry-Riddle University (aviation school) got hit.

These pics were taken from someone I know who goes there

[jinftl]

Sounds like Southeast Florida won't have to deal with that intense of storms.....amazing pics by the way....

Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
551 PM EST MON DEC 25 2006

FLZ068-071>074-260000-
PALM BEACH EASTERN-WESTERN BROWARD-BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-
DADE METROPOLITAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST PALM BEACH...
MICCOSUKEE INDIAN RESERVATION...FORT LAUDERDALE...SHARK VALLEY...
MIAMI
551 PM EST MON DEC 25 2006

.NOW...
THROUGH 7 PM...A WEAKENING SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH
THROUGH THE EASTERN INTERIOR AREAS INTO THE EAST COAST AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LINE WILL AFFECT ALL OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...AND
AREAS WEST OF THE FLORIDA`S TURNPIKE IN BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SQUALL LINE. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THE SQUALL LINE NEEDS TO SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE LINE PASSES BY.

[MiamiensisWx]

Just for clarification, the images posted above are from Daytona Beach somewhat near the speedway (I presume) and airport and are confirmed as F-2 tornado damage.

Just had a portion of the squall line pass through my area with heavy rainfall and some gusty winds roughly fifteen minutes ago.

[Gorky]

I've tried to plot damage reports onto a google map overlay of the area. It looks like the Tornado came in South of the Speedway over the airport Runways with the aviation schoool being the first solid building hit. Damage reports seeem to indicate it stayed on the ground or at least skipped all the way to the coast as Beach Street was closed due to damage in the area.

Here is my plot



And here is a google satellite view of the area corresponding to my track.

http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&z=15&ll ... 7&t=k&om=1

[JonathanBelles]

we had small damage and power outages here.

[Janie2006]

Impressive piccies. Looks like an equally impressive system setting up for New Year's weekend.