Texas winter wx thread#4 - big changes on the way eventually

[Brent]

This is how hard it is for it to snow:

KCVS 250255Z 01029G38KT 9SM -RA FEW095 01/M01 A3019

It's still rain all the way up in Clovis, NM...at an elevation of 4000'...after a cold frontal passage and at 34 degrees F.

Now...come on...if it's too warm to snow in Clovis at 4000' up...does Houston really have a chance only 12 hours later?

Nope. Sorry.

[Extremeweatherguy]

we'll see...

The air above Clovis is also not as cold as it should be above Houston tomorrow (according the the NAM initial values):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _000.shtml

Seems that the 540 thickness line and 0C 850mb line is still to their (Clovis') north. However, in north Houston, both those areas should be right overhead by tomorrow. If the 540 thickness line and 0C 850mb line were over Clovis right now then it would be snowing there at the moment.

You cannot really compare two places that have completely different conditions. One place, north Houston, will have a freezing atmosphere overhead, and Clovis currently does not. (However, the atmosphere above Clovis should continue to cool and they too may see snow later on. It will be better to compare to them when they are at or below 32-degrees as that is how cold the air above Houston...at 4000 feet...should be tomorrow).

[wxman22]

The 0z GFS still looks like we have a CHANCE of a little frozen precip:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _018.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _024.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 0z GFS still looks like we have a CHANCE of a little frozen precip:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _018.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _024.shtml

this is actually more promising than the 12z. It shows more moisture.

[HouTXmetro]

ABC & CBS are both calling for a chance of "Wintry Mix" Christmas Morning.

[Air Force Met]

we'll see...

The air above Clovis is also not as cold as it should be above Houston tomorrow (according the the NAM initial values):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _000.shtml

Seems that the 540 thickness line and 0C 850mb line is still to their (Clovis') north. However, in north Houston, both those areas should be right overhead by tomorrow. If the 540 thickness line and 0C 850mb line were over Clovis right now then it would be snowing there at the moment.

You cannot really compare two places that have completely different conditions. One place, north Houston, will have a freezing atmosphere overhead, and Clovis currently does not. (However, the atmosphere above Clovis should continue to cool and they too may see snow later on. It will be better to compare to them when they are at or below 32-degrees as that is how cold the air above Houston...at 4000 feet...should be tomorrow).

You have GOT to be kidding me. I can certainly compare the two...especially when one...CLOVIS...is much more conducive for snow than another...HOUSTON.

Clovis doesn't have a freezing atmosphere overhead? Have you been gulping the eggnog EWG? Is it spiked with the 151 Rum?

http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/o ... l/tcc.html

The freezing level is 1400' and the Wet bulb freezing level is 600' over Clovis.

No cold air? Air you kidding? You're kidding right? The air above Clovis is way colder than the air above Houston will ever be during this event. Houston will not be 1C...and the freezing level will not get even close to 1400'. As I have told you...and the RULES HOLD...when you have a freezing level of near 1500'...there is only a 10% chance that the precip makes it to the sfc as snow...most of the time it melts.

As far as thicknesses go...I've explained that so much...I don't understand why you even bring it up. Thickness values are meaningless. They are an indicator of the coolness of the air column....but can be skewed when the 500mb low is really deep...as it is now.

As far as your 850mb temps are concerned...did you stop to think that at Clovis the sfc IS the 850mb level (or pretty close to it?)...so you really can't use that as a tool? Go up 5000' AGL above their station and the air temp is -09C.

So...Clovis doesn't have a freezing atmosphere above?

The point was this: If you aren't getting snow when your freezing level is at 1400'...at 4000' elevation (WBZ at 600')...and your 5K AGL temps are -9C...how are you going to get it when your freezing level is 4K feet...WBZ is 3K feet...and your 5K feet temp is -1C?

[Air Force Met]

ABC & CBS are both calling for a chance of "Wintry Mix" Christmas Morning.

Yeah...I hate it when they hype.

"Possibly"..."A Chance"...

Honk on snow geese...

[CajunMama]

Thanks for explaining everything so thoroughly afm....you make it to where everyone should understand.

[Brent]

we'll see...

The air above Clovis is also not as cold as it should be above Houston tomorrow (according the the NAM initial values):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _000.shtml

Seems that the 540 thickness line and 0C 850mb line is still to their (Clovis') north. However, in north Houston, both those areas should be right overhead by tomorrow. If the 540 thickness line and 0C 850mb line were over Clovis right now then it would be snowing there at the moment.

You cannot really compare two places that have completely different conditions. One place, north Houston, will have a freezing atmosphere overhead, and Clovis currently does not. (However, the atmosphere above Clovis should continue to cool and they too may see snow later on. It will be better to compare to them when they are at or below 32-degrees as that is how cold the air above Houston...at 4000 feet...should be tomorrow).

You have GOT to be kidding me. I can certainly compare the two...especially when one...CLOVIS...is much more conducive for snow than another...HOUSTON.

Clovis doesn't have a freezing atmosphere overhead? Have you been gulping the eggnog EWG? Is it spiked with the 151 Rum?

http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/o ... l/tcc.html

The freezing level is 1400' and the Wet bulb freezing level is 600' over Clovis.

No cold air? Air you kidding? You're kidding right? The air above Clovis is way colder than the air above Houston will ever be during this event. Houston will not be 1C...and the freezing level will not get even close to 1400'. As I have told you...and the RULES HOLD...when you have a freezing level of near 1500'...there is only a 10% chance that the precip makes it to the sfc as snow...most of the time it melts.

As far as thicknesses go...I've explained that so much...I don't understand why you even bring it up. Thickness values are meaningless. They are an indicator of the coolness of the air column....but can be skewed when the 500mb low is really deep...as it is now.

As far as your 850mb temps are concerned...did you stop to think that at Clovis the sfc IS the 850mb level (or pretty close to it?)...so you really can't use that as a tool? Go up 5000' AGL above their station and the air temp is -09C.

So...Clovis doesn't have a freezing atmosphere above?

The point was this: If you aren't getting snow when your freezing level is at 1400'...at 4000' elevation (WBZ at 600')...and your 5K AGL temps are -9C...how are you going to get it when your freezing level is 4K feet...WBZ is 3K feet...and your 5K feet temp is -1C?

Very nice explanation AFM.

[Air Force Met]

Thanks for explaining everything so thoroughly afm....you make it to where everyone should understand.

"...because they seeing see not; and hearing they hear not, neither do they understand. Matthew 13:13"



Who knows...some "local citizen" will probably call into Channel 2 and report Snow flurries and they will report it on the news like they did last year...

Even though the freezing level was at 9000' and there was a warm slot 6K' thick with a max temp of 6C just 4K feet above the sfc...

Of course every met with half a brain knew it was impossible...but you can't reason with "hope."

[aggiecutter]

Portastorm, the 0Z GFS has a Blizzard raging in the central plains next saturday.

0Z GFS next saturday:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _132.shtml

[Portastorm]

Portastorm, the 0Z GFS has a Blizzard raging in the central plains next saturday.

0Z GFS next saturday:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _132.shtml

Wow! It sure does ... where did THAT come from? I don't recall seeing such a monster low in previous runs ...

[Air Force Met]

OK...Dan Meador on Channel 11..while talking about the "snow" pointed out the second upper low in the panhandle...and said the models missed it.

Missed it? Dan...we've been talking about it for a week. It's had various evolutions...from the motherload of an upper low to the low it is now...but we've been talking about it here for a long time.

Maybe he needs to spend more time on S2K

At least he pointed out it needed to be a lot colder than 46F to get snow.

Of course then he put a 50% chance of flurries in the forecast. Go figure...

[TexasSam]

I wish I could change this to where it says "rain, snow" but it's close enough

[Brent]

Lubbock is reporting light snow now...

http://www.wunderground.com/US/TX/Lubbock.html

36 degrees though way up there. I don't think Houston has any hope.

[hriverajr]

The one thing I noticed there are some serious winds in the Texas Panhandle. I wonder how far south and east these will translate?

[Air Force Met]

Lubbock is reporting light snow now...

http://www.wunderground.com/US/TX/Lubbock.html

36 degrees though way up there. I don't think Houston has any hope.

It's really slim. I think the only chance (and its a small chance) is actually not tomorrow morning...but tomorrow evening. There is a secondary shortwave dropping down into the backside of the mean-trof axis around 00Z. IT's currently moving through the CO area and is what caused the light snow showers in Denver this evening. It will be in the Panhandle around 12Z and over SETX by 00Z tomorrow night. By that time...the freezing level will be down to about 2000-2500' over the northern parts of SETX...and there will still be a little moisture at the sfc to work with...advecting around the backside of the low. The freezing level is still too high and the chance of getting any precip is low...but the MM5 is showing some precip (<.1") over the extreme portion of SETX...and ETX.

OF course the vertical velocities are all downward...but this is the best chance for a flurry to work it's way down over the northern parts of SETX: Tomorrow evening with the third shortwave (which is actually becoming the main axis of the longwave).

[Yankeegirl]

I am still in shock that they still have the chance of snow and rain for tomorrow!! Ill let ya know if I get anything, cant take pics cause the kids broke my digital camera, so you will have to take my word on it!!

[jasons2k]

If we were going to get anything I'd expect to see some reports from the DFW area of snow, but so far it's just all rain.

Merry Christmas!!

Now, Rusty, grab Dad an Egg Nog.

[jasons2k]

NWS DFW:

CLIMATE
535 AM CST

EXACTLY 80 YEARS AGO...IN 1926...NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SAW ITS MOST
SIGNIFICANT WHITE CHRISTMAS. SNOW FELL MUCH OF THE NIGHT...CHRISTMAS
EVE INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING...WITH CLAPS OF THUNDER. THE
OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITE IN DOWNTOWN FORT WORTH RECORDED 2.0 INCHES...
WHILE DALLAS REPORTED A WHOPPING 6.4 INCHES BEFORE DAYBREAK ARRIVED.
A SWATCH OF 5 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW STRETCHED FROM SOUTH OF FORT WORTH
TO MCKINNEY AND GREENVILLE. SKIES CLEARED AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBED
TO NEAR 50 DEGREES CHRISTMAS DAY...QUICKLY MELTING THE WINTER
WONDERLAND. 25