Texas winter wx thread#4 - big changes on the way eventually

southerngale · #141 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 5:22 pm

When you see it falling, then you can have hope. It just MIGHT make it to the ground.

#142 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 5:38 pm

southerngale wrote:When you see it falling, then you can have hope. It just MIGHT make it to the ground.

Well haven't you just been a ray of sunshine this whole thread?!

This is for you (sung to the melody of You're a Mean One, Mr. Grinch):

"You're a mean one, southerngale!
We know you think NO SNOW
Every time we get our hopes up
You smash them down and make us drown in ... RAAAAAAIIIIINNNN!

You are a meteorological, psychological, cumulo-wet blanket ... with GFS saaaaaaauuuuuuuccccce."

JenBayles · #143 Postby **JenBayles** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 5:44 pm

Yankeegirl wrote:Hey Jen, the Bear Creek dome has failed today!! I was out and about running errands all day, but when I got back to this side of town there was a lotta big puddles!! and to think I missed it all, again!!!!

This whole thought of snow and crap in the area are just getting annoying now,... snow or no snow, its still going to be chilly... me and Jen can handle that... all we wanna do is put on the fireplace!!!

It sure did! The Bear Creek Perma-Cap Dome actually failed enough to allow for a couple of showers and even a bit of thunder. Note, however, that the surrounding area looks like it got a good pounding, while we had short showers. :lol:

I'm with you on the snow outlook: no point in even hoping any more, but looks like it will at least be cold enough to burn up a few logs over the weekend. Figures - I finally got the chimney cleaned and repaired, and have only used the fireplace one time since!

JenBayles · #144 Postby **JenBayles** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 5:45 pm

Portastorm wrote:This is for you (sung to the melody of You're a Mean One, Mr. Grinch):

"You're a mean one, southerngale!
We know you think NO SNOW
Every time we get our hopes up
You smash them down and make us drown in ... RAAAAAAIIIIINNNN!

You are a meteorological, psychological, cumulo-wet blanket ... with GFS saaaaaaauuuuuuuccccce."

<grabs Dave for a quick swing around the living room> Love it! :lol:

Extremeweatherguy · #145 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 5:55 pm

whats up with the NWS raising temps. for the christmas weekend??? I just do not see how we will manage middle 50s on Christmas eve and Christmas day. In fact, I have a hard time believing that we get much above 50F with clouds and strong CAA. Hopefully they will trend this forecast back down soon. ATM it just seems too warm.

BTW, has anyone looked at the 18z GFS for Christmas day evening?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml

Are those flurries I see? May be this second piece of energy will in fact have some moisture to work with! Let's pray it does!

BTW: If the 18z GFS is right, then we will struggle to get above 50-degrees next Tuesday. This means that the NWS forecast of 60F could bust if the trend continues.

Johnny · #146 Postby **Johnny** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 6:13 pm

I like your spirit EWG but boy you better get on your knees and beg like a song of a gun to the snow gods if you want to see any snow around here.

My sister is heading to Bandera with her family for Christmas. They are staying at some dude ranch and I just called her to tell her she might see some snow and maybe even some accumulation. She was screaming to my niece and nephew that they might see snow....she didn't even have a clue.lol All of them are jumping off the wall now with excitement.lol

southerngale · #147 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 6:19 pm

Portastorm wrote:
southerngale wrote:When you see it falling, then you can have hope. It just MIGHT make it to the ground.

Well haven't you just been a ray of sunshine this whole thread?!

This is for you (sung to the melody of You're a Mean One, Mr. Grinch):

"You're a mean one, southerngale!
We know you think NO SNOW
Every time we get our hopes up
You smash them down and make us drown in ... RAAAAAAIIIIINNNN!

You are a meteorological, psychological, cumulo-wet blanket ... with GFS saaaaaaauuuuuuuccccce."

JenBayles · #148 Postby **JenBayles** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 6:19 pm

Johnny - that's funny! Snow or not though, Bandera is gorgeous no matter what time of year. I'm jealous!

#149 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 6:39 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
KatDaddy wrote:There will be no ice/sleet/snow for SE TX this time around. Time to face the facts.
I think that may be a pretty bold statement. Not that I think we will, but at 3 days out with a tricky low to forecast, and a still questionable amount of cold air there is a pretty decent chance that someone in SE Texas sees wintry precipitation. SE Texas is a pretty large area.

I tell you...nobody wishes a forecast like you do...especially when it comes to winter-time precip.

You keep talking about all the cold air...truth is...there isn't a lot of cold air around. The air column never gets below freezing...and even when it gets close...at 06z on the 26th...there is still a 4K foot layer above freezing b/w 3K and 7K feet AND it is dry as a bone.

So...no...there is not a decent chance that someone in SETX sees winter time precip. Every met in the world is telling you this...and yet...you still believe.

There is a time when faith crosses over into...well... :lol:

Given ALL available data (yes...things change) at this moment...it won't happen. It's too warm and when it does get close...it's still too warm and too dry. You can't just lok at thickness and 850mb temps....and those aren't even on your side anymore...

Johnny · #150 Postby **Johnny** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 7:06 pm

Am I the only one that hates it when AFM chimes in? lol j/k

Website · #151 Postby **Brent** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 7:20 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
KatDaddy wrote:There will be no ice/sleet/snow for SE TX this time around. Time to face the facts.
I think that may be a pretty bold statement. Not that I think we will, but at 3 days out with a tricky low to forecast, and a still questionable amount of cold air there is a pretty decent chance that someone in SE Texas sees wintry precipitation. SE Texas is a pretty large area.

I tell you...nobody wishes a forecast like you do...especially when it comes to winter-time precip.

You keep talking about all the cold air...truth is...there isn't a lot of cold air around. The air column never gets below freezing...and even when it gets close...at 06z on the 26th...there is still a 4K foot layer above freezing b/w 3K and 7K feet AND it is dry as a bone.

So...no...there is not a decent chance that someone in SETX sees winter time precip. Every met in the world is telling you this...and yet...you still believe.

There is a time when faith crosses over into...well...

Given ALL available data (yes...things change) at this moment...it won't happen. It's too warm and when it does get close...it's still too warm and too dry. You can't just lok at thickness and 850mb temps....and those aren't even on your side anymore...

AFM has spoken! :lol:

double D · #152 Postby **double D** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 7:37 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:whats up with the NWS raising temps. for the christmas weekend??? I just do not see how we will manage middle 50s on Christmas eve and Christmas day. In fact, I have a hard time believing that we get much above 50F with clouds and strong CAA. Hopefully they will trend this forecast back down soon. ATM it just seems too warm.

BTW, has anyone looked at the 18z GFS for Christmas day evening?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml

Are those flurries I see? May be this second piece of energy will in fact have some moisture to work with! Let's pray it does!

BTW: If the 18z GFS is right, then we will struggle to get above 50-degrees next Tuesday. This means that the NWS forecast of 60F could bust if the trend continues.

I would agree with you about a couple of flurries, but it's the 18Z that is showing this and it's the first time it has shown possible flurries. That said, the gfs has been inconsistent and I think it's too early to say it won't happen at all (a possible flurry that is).

Stratosphere747 · #153 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 7:56 pm

Johnny wrote:Am I the only one that hates it when AFM chimes in? lol j/k

Truth be told Johnny -- And I'm only quoting you so as I can get my comment in and a open shout out to AFM.

This site almost lost AFM during the tropical season because he sometimes tells people what they don’t want to hear to the point of being futile. He is hands down one of the best, if not the best, participating mets here (along with Chris/Wxman57.)

The fact is he takes the time to actually explain what "us" amateurs so many times miss, or think we see. Quite a few have learned an invaluable amount of information about tropical weather along with WW from this man, as if we were taking a course.

When he chimes in, it's as good as anything many pay for.....

And yes I’m a member of the fan club….

Scott

Johnny · #154 Postby **Johnny** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 8:15 pm

747, I'm pretty confident that AFM knows I am joking...since I put a j/k on the end of my very humorous remark. AFM has taught me a whole lot about tropical weather mostly along with the movement of arctic air intrusions into the CONUS.

I was watching the people back during the tropical season putting the hammer to AFM because of all the -removed- going on. I don't blame AFM one bit for getting the heck out of there.

BTW, have you done any hunting this year AFM? Any luck?

Stratosphere747 · #155 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 8:17 pm

I knew you were joking. It just gave me an opening...

JenBayles · #156 Postby **JenBayles** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 8:22 pm

I caught the joke too - and appreciate the levity! Shoot - that's why I've been here at S2K for so long - so many people with a great sense of humor in addition to the weather knowledge. Can we lighten up a bit please and enjoy everyone's winter weather prognostications with a grain of salt and laughter? :lol:

Janie2006 · #157 Postby **Janie2006** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 8:33 pm

JenBayles wrote:I caught the joke too - and appreciate the levity! Shoot - that's why I've been here at S2K for so long - so many people with a great sense of humor in addition to the weather knowledge. Can we lighten up a bit please and enjoy everyone's winter weather prognostications with a grain of salt and laughter?

I would, but salt is that stuff they use to melt snow.

wxman22 · #158 Postby **wxman22** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 8:38 pm

SLEET in NorthWest harris county I live in Glenloach Farms off of 249 & Spring Cypress by Hooks airport. about 20 minutes ago I suddenly heard tapping on the windows so I went outside and ice pellots were falling everywhere mixed with rain it lasted for atleast a minute. I know It could have been hail but it wasnt a thunderstorm just a breif shower ?????

Was it hail or sleet?

(I doubt that the atmosphere profiles are cold enough for sleet though)

#159 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 9:03 pm

wxman22 wrote:SLEET in NorthWest harris county I live in Glenloach Farms off of 249 & Spring Cypress by Hooks airport. about 20 minutes ago I suddenly heard tapping on the windows so I went outside and ice pellots were falling everywhere mixed with rain it lasted for atleast a minute. I know It could have been hail but it wasnt a thunderstorm just a breif shower ?????

Was it hail or sleet?

(I doubt that the atmosphere profiles are cold enough for sleet though)

Probably some small hail. Temp profiles right now show the freezing level at about 11K feet...

#160 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 9:10 pm

Johnny wrote:Am I the only one that hates it when AFM chimes in? lol j/k

No...EWG does... :lol:

I knew you were joking...It got a laugh out of me...

Texas winter wx thread#4 - big changes on the way eventually

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