Texas winter wx thread#4 - big changes on the way eventually

[gboudx]

Since this run is different from the past runs that were consistent in the low placement, why not discount it for now and wait for later runs to show consistency?

If I remember correctly, isn't this when the gfs started shifting this weeks upper low north with about 3 days to go? I wonder if it's starting the trend again?

That also occurred with the upper low which brought ice/sleet/snow to DFW in early December. At first it forecasted further south, giving us a chance of 2"-4" snow accumulation. Then it shifted north and we got a light dusting.

I said earlier in the week that I'm not buying into anything until Friday. We'll see how things unfold into tomorrow.

[hriverajr]

The 12 Z Nam takes the upper low through deep south Texas just like in 2004. Of course. it is not as cold this time. It takes alot of m oisture down there as well. Much less cold air as well at 850. Have not looked at GFS yet. I think someone will get some frozen stuff. I do not think we will really know who until it starts happening. The only thing all the models show is a strong upper/midlevel low moving through south texas, with marginal cold air. I think i am beginning to see a hint of formation on water vapor of the shortwave.

Looking at the latest GFS I think its out to lunch with the placement of the shortwave. If you look at water vapor in general there is a really deep trough to the west in the southern stream. I think the shortwave will try to find the base of the trough. But that is only my two cents worth.

Hector

P.S. By the way I do have a degree in WX communications from St. Thomas in Houston. I just have not practiced my craft for a living in many years. Not that it makes me better at forecasting this then anyone else of course. hehe

[Johnny]

Remember....


A couple of weeks back, places around Corpus Christi and South, Texas got sleet and snow flurries which really wasn't forecasted. Some of it actually accumulated for a short period of time. This area didn't have much moisture or cold temperatures to work with but somehow the atmosphere produced some good snow flurries and sleet showers.

We will have some cold air to work with and a good amount of moisture to work with. I doesn't look like we will be cold enough but stranger things have happened.

Most of the times when snow flurries are reported in Southeast, Texas, it was NEVER in the forecast.

[aggiecutter]

wxman22 is the winner. As often happens with the operational GFS, it will catch onto something 7-10 days out, lose it or waffle, then go back to the original solution 2-3 days out. Today's 12z run matches the ones from 6-7 days ago. That's why I posted that someone in Central and or NE Texas would get a surprise snow this weekend. Now, that we are getting close to show time, the model is starting to hone in on it. This very same thing happened in December of 2004, although this time the snow band will start in the hill country and progress NE through Central Texas into the NE part of the state, which was the original solution of the model.

[hriverajr]

Yes there was snow in South Texas . In fact Cotulla reporting accumulating snows for a time. We won't really know i think until right before any event occurs

[jasons2k]

Some comments posted in the SE TX thread in the USA weather forum - it looks like a Severe T-Storm watch is on the way for Houston Metro...

[southerngale]

I think someone within this area will see some form of wintry precip. before it is over:

http://www.optimist.org/Graphics/Maps/SE_Texas.jpg

That is just too big of an area to say that nothing will happen. Thus the reason I feel there is a decent chance that someone sees sleet/snow in SE Texas.

However, I am not expecting anything significant out of this system such as accumulations at this time.

Like I said before...we should know much more after the systems actually take shape over the area and we have a better idea of the exact conditions. Just because a model is saying the upper-levels will not be favorable now, doesn't mean it will still be saying that 2-3 days from now.

Ironic that it comes from optimist.org

Btw, we've never considered the Jasper area as Southeast Texas...it's considered East Texas.

[Lindaloo]

LOL Kelly!

[JenBayles]

Deck the South with snow and ice storms
Fa la la la laaaaa la la la laaaaa!
Give us lots of cold and moisture
Fa la la la laaaaa la la la laaaaa!

Staring at the noon ensembles
Gives me a really bad heaaaaaad ache!
While we wait for news of freezing
From the tops of Mt. Bastaaaardi!

(OK - it's official. I've lost my mind.)

[southerngale]

ROFL Jen! Nice!!

[CaptinCrunch]

So what else is new with the models....show one thing and do something else and then back again to the left......lol


NWS FT WORTH TX

UPDATE...
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WELL WHICH HAS
ALLOWED FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
WILL BE UPDATING TO INCLUDE LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FAR ENOUGH
AWAY TO END LOW POPS OVER THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO DEWPOINTS/TEMPS/SKY GRIDS ALSO MADE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS WEEKEND SYSTEM AND
CONTINUED MODEL DISAGREEMENT. WILL AWAIT THE NEW ECMWF/UKMET MODELS
BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES...AS 12Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT.

[Kelarie]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1203 PM CST THU DEC 21 2006

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-221100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
1203 PM CST THU DEC 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE EAST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING SNOW TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. UNCERTAINTY DOES EXITS WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THIS STORM AND POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

[southerngale]

It's gonna snow here after all! Like Kennethb said, the good GFS giveth and the bad GFS taketh away.

Are you tired of waiting for the good GFS to win?

Do you want to see snow falling without having to turn on your TV or get on your computer?

Would snow really make your day complete?

It can snow at your house too!


...at YOUR convenience







Just print this and follow the directions for a fun-filled snow day.

[Brent]

Ironic that it comes from optimist.org

and LOL at your directions on how to make snow.

[JenBayles]

ROFL Jen! Nice!!

Like I said - I've officially lost my mind! I've been watching this thread for far too long.... <puts hand to eyes and scouts out the top of Mt. B>

[Kelarie]

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
315 PM CST THU DEC 21 2006

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-221030-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
315 PM CST THU DEC 21 2006

...WET AND COLD HOLIDAY WEEKEND ON TAP FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HEAD TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME AND THE RESULT OF THOSE TWO FEATURES WILL BE OVERRUNNING RAIN...EMBEDDED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ARE LIKELY...WITH HIGHER SPOTTY AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SLEET BRIEFLY...BUT IS FORECAST TO TURN OVER TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SNOW IS CURRENTLY NOT FORECAST FOR THE AUSTIN OR SAN ANTONIO METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...FORECASTS CAN AND DO CHANGE AS MORE DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE TO FORECASTERS.

Gotta love that one line

[southerngale]

Translation: When we see it falling, we'll change the forecast.





j/k

[Yankeegirl]

Hey Jen, the Bear Creek dome has failed today!! I was out and about running errands all day, but when I got back to this side of town there was a lotta big puddles!! and to think I missed it all, again!!!!

This whole thought of snow and crap in the area are just getting annoying now,... snow or no snow, its still going to be chilly... me and Jen can handle that... all we wanna do is put on the fireplace!!!

[jasons2k]

Sorry guys:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
356 PM CST THU DEC 21 2006


THE NEXT UPPER TROF/LOW TO QUICKLY MOVE DOWN/
ACROSS THE AREA MON/XMAS DAY. WHILE PWS ARE ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN
THE .5" RANGE...MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME DECENT 85H RH FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME. SO WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE AND NOT THAT COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...SNOW FOR MON NOT THAT PLAUSIBLE ATTM. MAYBE NEXT YEAR...

[Portastorm]

Sorry guys:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
356 PM CST THU DEC 21 2006


THE NEXT UPPER TROF/LOW TO QUICKLY MOVE DOWN/
ACROSS THE AREA MON/XMAS DAY. WHILE PWS ARE ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN
THE .5" RANGE...MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME DECENT 85H RH FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME. SO WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE AND NOT THAT COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...SNOW FOR MON NOT THAT PLAUSIBLE ATTM. MAYBE NEXT YEAR...

Someone please get all the sharp objects away from EWG!

I don't know anymore ... all of the NWS outlets, including my own folks in New Braunfels, are really down on any snow/ice chances. But Jeff's earlier forecast gave me some hope.