Texas winter wx thread#4 - big changes on the way eventually

Yankeegirl · #81 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Wed Dec 20, 2006 7:36 pm

Im only sitting at 60.1... But its still better than what it was earlier!!!

aggiecutter · #82 Postby **aggiecutter** » Wed Dec 20, 2006 8:27 pm

yeah Portastorm, I was referring to Cahir's Connection. That is one of his main teleconnections for Arctic outbreaks down the road.

#83 Postby **hriverajr** » Wed Dec 20, 2006 9:03 pm

Well at 850 each model run, temps continue to rise. It does seem that the core of whatever system comes out goes across deep south texas as well. Will just have to wait and see. I cannot even see the system developing on water vapor yet.

#84 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Dec 20, 2006 10:07 pm

OK ... so its the NAM ... but this still looks better than any GFS run lately:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

Houston NWS office seems to be picking up on this as well tonight:

LOOKING AHEAD...THE 21/00Z NAM GUIDANCE HAS COME OUT WITH VERY HIGH
POPS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON SATURDAY...VERY MUCH IN CONTRAST
WITH THE DRY 20/18Z GFS GUIDANCE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE
GFS HOLDS ON TO ITS DRY FORECAST

double D · #85 Postby **double D** » Wed Dec 20, 2006 10:51 pm

Portastorm wrote:OK ... so its the NAM ... but this still looks better than any GFS run lately:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

Houston NWS office seems to be picking up on this as well tonight:

LOOKING AHEAD...THE 21/00Z NAM GUIDANCE HAS COME OUT WITH VERY HIGH
POPS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON SATURDAY...VERY MUCH IN CONTRAST
WITH THE DRY 20/18Z GFS GUIDANCE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE
GFS HOLDS ON TO ITS DRY FORECAST

I noticed that on the 18z NAM too. I hope the 00Z GFS will trend towards the NAM and gives us in central Texas a little hope. :wink:

Extremeweatherguy · #86 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Dec 20, 2006 10:55 pm

double D wrote:
Portastorm wrote:OK ... so its the NAM ... but this still looks better than any GFS run lately:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

Houston NWS office seems to be picking up on this as well tonight:

LOOKING AHEAD...THE 21/00Z NAM GUIDANCE HAS COME OUT WITH VERY HIGH
POPS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON SATURDAY...VERY MUCH IN CONTRAST
WITH THE DRY 20/18Z GFS GUIDANCE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE
GFS HOLDS ON TO ITS DRY FORECAST

I noticed that on the 18z NAM too. I hope the 00Z GFS will trend towards the NAM and gives us in central Texas a little hope.

This is very interesting. The 0z GFS will be crucial for sure. Hope it comes out promising!

southerngale · #87 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Dec 20, 2006 11:38 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
double D wrote:
Portastorm wrote:OK ... so its the NAM ... but this still looks better than any GFS run lately:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

Houston NWS office seems to be picking up on this as well tonight:

LOOKING AHEAD...THE 21/00Z NAM GUIDANCE HAS COME OUT WITH VERY HIGH
POPS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON SATURDAY...VERY MUCH IN CONTRAST
WITH THE DRY 20/18Z GFS GUIDANCE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE
GFS HOLDS ON TO ITS DRY FORECAST

I noticed that on the 18z NAM too. I hope the 00Z GFS will trend towards the NAM and gives us in central Texas a little hope.
This is very interesting. The 0z GFS will be crucial for sure. Hope it comes out promising!

#88 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Dec 20, 2006 11:43 pm

This little "gem" was part of the HWO just issued by Austin/San Antonio NWSFO.

Hmmm ...

:think:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A WINTER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.

cctxhurricanewatcher · #89 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Wed Dec 20, 2006 11:48 pm

Portastorm wrote:This little "gem" was part of the HWO just issued by Austin/San Antonio NWSFO.

Hmmm ...

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A WINTER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.

Looks like ol'Lucy is teeing up the ball for you Charl, oh Portastorm. :lol:

cctxhurricanewatcher · #90 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Wed Dec 20, 2006 11:49 pm

Speaking of the 18Z GFS and it will be interesting to see if it comes out on the 0Z GFS. It looked like the hounds were about to be released from the Arctic right after the New Year. Anybody else seeing that or is it just me.

Website · #91 Postby **Brent** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 12:03 am

Don't even look at the 0z GFS. It's depressing.

Extremeweatherguy · #92 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 2:02 am

Brent wrote:Don't even look at the 0z GFS. It's depressing.

yes, it is. However, at the same time the 0z NAM is very interesting. Let's just hope the NAM ends up being the one that is correct.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml
^^Christmas eve morning on the 0z NAM^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml
^^Christmas eve morning on the 0z GFS^^

#93 Postby **hriverajr** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 2:07 am

The 0Z NAM for what its worth is very cold at 850. It does take the center of the shortwave through deep south texas though. There is also some good moisture available as well to the south. The GFS of course is much warmer. The system should begin showing up in about 24 hours or so.

#94 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 8:45 am

hriverajr wrote:The 0Z NAM for what its worth is very cold at 850. It does take the center of the shortwave through deep south texas though. There is also some good moisture available as well to the south. The GFS of course is much warmer. The system should begin showing up in about 24 hours or so.

Yeah it's too bad we can't mix and match ... "I'd like the NAM 850mb temps please with a GFS upper low track to go."

Still think this whole thing though is a real long shot ...

aggiecutter · #95 Postby **aggiecutter** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 9:29 am

A few thoughts after looking at all the new model runs this morning. I am convinced that someone in Central-Northeastern Texas is going to get a surprise snow on Monday. The models still have the upper level system meandering around. Another thing, the pattern the next few weeks is very conducive for winter storms in the southern plains and Texas. One of these systems is going to phase, and we are going to have a major winter storm within the next couple weeks.

#96 Postby **hriverajr** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 9:34 am

The 0z runs are different. TheGFS is showing a little bit more cold air at 850. The NAM showing less now. Go figure. They both show the short wave coming more from a more NW direction, abd a tad farther north withthe NGM more to the south. However seems to be less precip potential with both. I think we could consider ourselves real lucky if anything frozen fell from the sky.

#97 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 9:42 am

#98 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 10:00 am

Story of my life! :lol:

double D · #99 Postby **double D** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 10:21 am

Portastorm wrote:
hriverajr wrote:The 0Z NAM for what its worth is very cold at 850. It does take the center of the shortwave through deep south texas though. There is also some good moisture available as well to the south. The GFS of course is much warmer. The system should begin showing up in about 24 hours or so.

Yeah it's too bad we can't mix and match ... "I'd like the NAM 850mb temps please with a GFS upper low track to go."

Still think this whole thing though is a real long shot ...

What is funny is that the 06Z GFS and the 12Z NAM have switched places. The GFS is cooler now with the 850 temps and the NAM is MUCH warmer. :roll:

Isn't this soooo much fun?

#100 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Dec 21, 2006 10:30 am

It's my fault. I don't want it to snow or ice or sleet for Christmas or next week. And that's what I had my kid ask Santa for. Looks like Santa will deliver.

Again, sorry.

Texas winter wx thread#4 - big changes on the way eventually

GFS keeps getting warmer

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