Texas Winter Weather Thread #3 - GFS showing cold christmas

[southerngale]

cctxhurricanewatcher, you and your popcorn munching Garfield are cracking me up!

[Brent]

JB's evening post is saying that he expects 2-3 snow events to reach deep into TX over the next 2 weeks or so. He also said that these will not be just west TX or panhandle events only, but that each one may reach all the way to I-35 and possibly beyond.

If he is right, then it could be an interesting end to December and start to January for sure!!! I just hope that northern Harris county can get something out of this pattern!

You WILL get something EWG ... a nice chilly rain. Heh, heh ...

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

cctxhurricanewatcher, you and your popcorn munching Garfield are cracking me up!

Thanks. Gotta a feeling between the excitement of every GFS run and the interpretation of each one by EWG , Air Force Met and a few others we're going to have quite a few "pass the popcorn" moments around here the next few days. And then throw in JB's comments and the his sycophant Portastorm posting them on here along with that stinking Aggie from Texarkana and his take on the last ensembles , it's going to be fun to see if everything goes as planned.

[cheezyWXguy]

cctxhurricanewatcher, you and your popcorn munching Garfield are cracking me up!

Thanks. Gotta a feeling between the excitement of every GFS run and the interpretation of each one by EWG , Air Force Met and a few others we're going to have quite a few "pass the popcorn" moments around here the next few days. And then throw in JB's comments and the his sycophant Portastorm posting them on here along with that stinking Aggie from Texarkana and his take on the last ensembles , it's going to be fun to see if everything goes as planned.

no way man...gig 'em aggies! AAAAAAAAAA!

[TexWx]

Question:

Let's say we did get some snow here in SE Texas this winter... Doesn't have to be Xmas, but this winter.

When was the last time (or if it has happened), that it was only 2 years apart?

[weatherrabbit_tx]

maybe in 1976 and 77 and jan. 1982 and jan. 1985 is the closes I can think and as far I was told that snowed at least 3 times in '73?

someone enlighten us

[Extremeweatherguy]

0Z GFS is showing less cold air, and a stronger low (yet further offshore). It is strange. Seems like the model is starting to show it's problems. However, the main players are still on the field. A high, a low along the coast and cold air (though lots less if the 0Z verified). The run is only out to Christmas Eve so far though, so who knows what it will show for Christmas day and beyond.

Here is what it is showing for Christmas Eve afternoon:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_138l.gif

The strangest part of this run is that it is showing less cold air (especially in the upper levels) than the 12z and 18z, yet it is also showing a more amplified trough than those models.

Compare:

Hour 144 on 18z run: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml

Hour 138 on the 0z run (equivalent to 144 on 18z): http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml

Interesting isn't it?

This just goes to show how much more the ensembles should be preferred over the operational models at this point (as the operational ones are still too crazy). The main issues still seem to be where the low will be located, the speed of the low, and the amount of cold air (as well as how much moisture there is to work with). Hopefully we will know the answers to these questions soon. Still looks like a winter weather event is a real possibility though. This overall upcoming pattern has potential if the players are lined up right.

UPDATE...0z still showing a cold Christmas:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml
^^Afternoon^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml
^^Evening^^

[Extremeweatherguy]

maybe in 1976 and 77 and jan. 1982 and jan. 1985 is the closes I can think and as far I was told that snowed at least 3 times in '73?

someone enlighten us

http://www.wxresearch.com/snowhou.htm

[weatherrabbit_tx]

maybe in 1976 and 77 and jan. 1982 and jan. 1985 is the closes I can think and as far I was told that snowed at least 3 times in '73?

someone enlighten us

http://www.wxresearch.com/snowhou.htm

the light has come on!

[Ptarmigan]

Garfield being his old slobbish self.

[Yankeegirl]

Pass the popcorn, please.....

[southerngale]

Lake Charles early morning discussion doesn't even mention the weekend or Christmas weather. Here's what a few other offices are saying...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
407 AM CST TUE DEC 19 2006

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW BIG CHANGES FOR THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP 500
MB TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS AND AN INTENSE SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE NW GULF. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT DETAILS THIS FAR
OUT HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. HAVE
HIGHEST POPS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND LOW
SPINS UP IN THE GULF. GIVEN FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES AND STRONG
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NW GULF LOW HAVE GONE
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS BEGINNING SUNDAY.






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
333 AM CST TUE DEC 19 2006

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING WINTERY WX IN THE FORM
OF SNOW TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF PLACE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO BY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PLUNGES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWFA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
OF CANADIAN ORIGIN AND COLDER. THE COLD CANADIAN AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH THE LIFT AND OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL OF SNOW ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL
EXPERIENCE A COLD RAIN. SNOW FLURRIES MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES CHRISTMAS EVE INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING
AS THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CWFA.





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
424 AM CST TUE DEC 19 2006

.LONG TERM...
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD-AIR SURGE MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BRINGING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...MODELS BRING ANOTHER UPPER-
LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO A POSITION JUST WEST OF EL PASO. IF THIS SOLUTION
VERIFIES...WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MAY RECEIVE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLY SNOW. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO PRESENT A PROMISING PICTURE
FOR THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPING...CAUTION DICTATES A MORE
CONSERVATIVE FORECAST FOR NOW. THUS...WILL CONTINUE ONLY 30 POPS
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
430 AM CST TUE DEC 19 2006

AS THE LOW COMES ACROSS CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING WE WILL SEE A COLD
STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENT SHIFTING NE OF THE CWA. GFS HINTING (AND AT THIS TIME
STRESS JUST HINTING) MARGINAL PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES FOR SNOW TO
MIX IN WITH THE STRATIFORM RAIN SUN MORNING ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
CWA. HOWEVER...STILL A SIG ABOVE FREEZING LAYER FM SFC TO ROUGHLY
H85. TOO FAR OUT AND WAY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO MENTION ANY
WINTRY TYPE MIX SUNDAY MORNING...SO WILL JUST SHOW A COLD RAIN.
IN ADDITION...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 50S ON SUN.

CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS COLD AND DRY AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
346 AM CST TUE DEC 19 2006

(also covers part of East Texas)

THE NEXT TROUBLE COMES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS GFS/ECMWF IN
REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH A DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A RELOADING OF THIS TROUGH FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WHICH PROMISES TO DRAG SOME VERY
COLD AIR OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY. WHILE
I WOULD HAVE LIKED TO SEE SOME ADDITIONAL PROGS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE COMMITTING TO A PRECIP TYPE THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FCST AS TIMING IS ALWAYS CRITICAL IN DETERMINING WHEN AND IF
PRECIP WILL OUTRUN THE COLD AIR MASS...DAY SHIFT ON MONDAY HAS
ALREADY COMMITTED TO SOME WINTER PRECIP IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
FOR THE WEEKEND. FROM WHAT PROGS I HAVE TO LOOK AT THIS MORNING...
THERE IS NO REASON TO REMOVE PRECIP ATTM BUT INSTEAD...HAVE
ADJUSTED OUR RAIN/SNOW MENTION FROM SAT NIGHT/SUN TO SUN NIGHT/
MON AS FCST SOUNDING DO NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING BUT RAIN UNTIL
SUN NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT
BUT THIS GIVES US A GOOD START FOR NOW.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
428 AM CST TUE DEC 19 2006

IN THE EXTENDED... THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A
PREFERENCE FOR THE SOUTH TEXAS TRACK OF THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM AND ARE
IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONSIDERING IT IS STILL A FEW DAYS
OUT. ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALSO LIKE THE SOUTHERN TRACK. 18Z DGEX WAS
A HOLD OUT BRINGING IT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS... BUT THE NEW 06Z RUN
NOW BRINGS IT SOUTH AS WELL. HAVE LOWERED POPS A CAT IN GENERAL
THIS WEEKEND IN THE EXTENDED BASED ON THIS SCENARIO. WILL STILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE GFS AND DGEX SHOW WITH
INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEXT MONDAY THOUGH.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the latest Christmas Eve and Christmas forecast from the NWS for north Houston:

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50.

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34.

Christmas Day: A 20 percent chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a high near 50.

The biggest change is that they now include a precip. chance for Christmas day. They have also lowered the temps. a few degrees.

[Portastorm]

I have descended from Mt. Bastardi to tell you that there's nothing new from JB this morning other than what he has been saying and has been posted ... although he is suggesting an arctic outbreak of sorts come early to mid January based on changes occuring in the highest levels of the atmosphere.

Meanwhile, the 0z run of the Euro looks even more promising for a wintry weather event somewhere in central or south Texas. Check it out:

Day 5:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_120.gif

Day 6:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_144.gif
(notice how far south the low is along with plenty of cold air at the 850 level)

Day 7:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have descended from Mt. Bastardi to tell you that there's nothing new from JB this morning other than what he has been saying and has been posted ... although he is suggesting an arctic outbreak of sorts come early to mid January based on changes occuring in the highest levels of the atmosphere.

Meanwhile, the 0z run of the Euro looks even more promising for a wintry weather event somewhere in central or south Texas. Check it out:

Day 5:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_120.gif

Day 6:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_144.gif
(notice how far south the low is along with plenty of cold air at the 850 level)

Day 7:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

you're right portastorm. This does look pretty promising. Also, these are the coldest 850mb temperatures I have seen the Euro show so far which is interesting indeed (especially since the Euro usually winds up doing better than the GFS).

[JenBayles]

Portastorm - Does this mean the ECMWF has replaced the GFS as the golden calf?

[Portastorm]

Portastorm - Does this mean the ECMWF has replaced the GFS as the golden calf?

Good one Jen!

You know ... I'm probably guilty of worshipping the Euro more than any other model, especially in winter. You got me!

[double D]

Portastorm - Does this mean the ECMWF has replaced the GFS as the golden calf?

Good one Jen!

You know ... I'm probably guilty of worshipping the Euro more than any other model, especially in winter. You got me!

I don't know why we rely so much on the GFS on this board instead of the EURO? It is usually more accurate in the long range and has been performing much better than the GFS in the last several weeks. I guess the gfs offers more runs and is a little easier to analyze.

One thing is for sure, if the Euro continues to show more snow than the gfs, it will become popular very soon.

[JenBayles]

Portastorm - Does this mean the ECMWF has replaced the GFS as the golden calf?

Good one Jen!

You know ... I'm probably guilty of worshipping the Euro more than any other model, especially in winter. You got me!

Glad you got the joke - it really was kindly meant, but I HAD to go there!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

All hail and worship the Euro..... until it screws up.

We will all be following the Japanese models before to long.