New Thunderstorms from Land...not directly from Low in Gulf

[MWatkins]

To me it looks like the complex to the east was not initiated by anything tropical at the surface...but instead by airmass convection initiated by daytime heating over the Yucatan. Notice these storms blew up at the heating maximum over land (mostly) then have move out to sea. This MCC looks to be caught in the mid-level flow around the weak low...but I don't think it's from the low itself.

If I'm right then that area of storms should start to weaken in another hour or so.

The low at the surface is going to need to do some work for the low to have a shot at development. Although interest has been peaked by the various agencies monitoring satellite activity (SAB andTAFB) nobody is handing out a T-number just yet. Looking at shortwave IR...I think you can see what I mean. This system is going to need more time to get together...and will need to push up some thunderstorms over a better defined low center to have a shot at development. And the intensity models suggest that even if this does become a depression...it won't become much more than than.

Lotta rain...though.

MW

[Stormsfury]

I'm pretty much agreed 100% ...

The only sidenote I might add is if baroclinicity becomes involved, and the potential for a hybrid like storm ... but I still do not think that we will be dealing with nothing more than flooding rainmaker (to add insult to injury in the already rain-soaked Southeastern Region)....

[Colin]

I agree 100%... doesn't look to me that this thing will develop into anything tropical... just very heavy rains in the soaked Southeast! :o