White Christmas?

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
double D
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 485
Joined: Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:17 pm
Location: Austin, Tx

#61 Postby double D » Tue Dec 12, 2006 8:54 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:Wow...check this out...this would put most of texas below freezing with precipitation, with the 540 line even at houston!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _312.shtml
yeah, I just saw that too! It would be crazy if it played out!


Just remember that the GFS is usually out in la la land this far out. Let's wait and see if it has any support from the Euro when it starts showing it's solution for Christmas Day.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#62 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Dec 12, 2006 9:16 pm

double D wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:Wow...check this out...this would put most of texas below freezing with precipitation, with the 540 line even at houston!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _312.shtml
yeah, I just saw that too! It would be crazy if it played out!


Just remember that the GFS is usually out in la la land this far out. Let's wait and see if it has any support from the Euro when it starts showing it's solution for Christmas Day.
yeah, I'd agree there. It is in la-la land at that range. However, it is interesting to see such a run. Let's just hope we see similar things once it gets closer to the day.
0 likes   

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5899
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

#63 Postby MGC » Tue Dec 12, 2006 10:06 pm

The GFS picked up the 2004 Christmas snow event days in advance. It (GFS) flipped flopped seveal times over the next several runs. The GFS did get it right though. We shall see if the GFS is right again, hope so....MGC
0 likes   

JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

#64 Postby JonathanBelles » Tue Dec 12, 2006 10:42 pm

i want a much larger snow event that covered from florida to texas, is it possible?
0 likes   

Johnny
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1428
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:35 pm
Location: No Snow For You, Texas

#65 Postby Johnny » Tue Dec 12, 2006 10:47 pm

Just remember that the GFS is usually out in la la land this far out.



Man, if I had a dollar for every time I heard that leading up to the Christmas snow of 2004 I'd be a rich man. Well, maybe not rich but I would of had enough money to by myself a dinner at Joe's Crab Shack! :D

Seriously, the chances are very slim for this to verify BUT it will be getting colder around this time period. I've seen a few sources say that we could get pretty darn chilly and I've heard other sources say possibly back to average temps or slightly below. With this said, I've also seen that we could be going into a wet pattern leading up to Christmas weekend. That leads me to believe that the GFS isn't that far out into la la land. The GFS seems to be picking up on the pattern during this time period which I pretty much agree with. What I'm not buying is frozen precipitation during this time period for obvious reasons. I mean, come on! What are the chances? :eek:

The GFS picked up the 2004 Christmas snow event days in advance.


After reading through the archives the other night, the GFS picked up on it at least two weeks in advance and held onto it for days. Of course it did some flip flopping leading up to Christmas but never entirely dropped the idea.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#66 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Dec 12, 2006 11:12 pm

the 00Z GFS is coming in now. It should be interesting to see what this run shows.
0 likes   

User avatar
cctxhurricanewatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1206
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:53 pm
Location: Corpus Christi, Texas

#67 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Tue Dec 12, 2006 11:28 pm

MGC wrote:The GFS picked up the 2004 Christmas snow event days in advance. It (GFS) flipped flopped seveal times over the next several runs. The GFS did get it right though. We shall see if the GFS is right again, hope so....MGC


The GFS and Bastardi actually got something right so far out..
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#68 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Dec 13, 2006 12:11 am

00Z GFS continues the trend of very cold air (except this time the 24th instead of the 25th), but it also shows considerably less moisture:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml

If this run were to verify, it would mean a cold holiday, but no snow.

Hopefully future runs will bring the moisture back into the picture.
0 likes   

f5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1550
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 3:29 pm
Location: Waco,tx

#69 Postby f5 » Wed Dec 13, 2006 12:25 am

we contines to talk about south Texas first white christmas folks that was an anmnoly which preceeded the granddaddy of all hurricane season the one with 28 named storms 4 CAT 5s with one putting Gilbert to shame
0 likes   

User avatar
cctxhurricanewatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1206
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:53 pm
Location: Corpus Christi, Texas

#70 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Wed Dec 13, 2006 12:27 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:00Z GFS continues the trend of very cold air (except this time the 24th instead of the 25th), but it also shows considerably less moisture:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml

If this run were to verify, it would mean a cold holiday, but no snow.

Hopefully future runs will bring the moisture back into the picture.


Hopefully the El Nino moisture train will be our friend. I'll take cloudy and damp too along with the cold because it would limit heating during the day which makes the use of the fireplace all day much more enjoyable.
0 likes   

User avatar
Janie2006
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1329
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:28 pm
Location: coastal Ms aka home of the hurricanes

#71 Postby Janie2006 » Wed Dec 13, 2006 4:16 pm

Scott Patterson wrote:There's always a White Christmas here. Anyone whom wants to can come shovel all the white Christmas they want to off my driveway. Free of charge! :D




*snicker*

Nice try!

I'll be happy just to get some nice chilly air back down here for Christmas.

I drove past this sign for a Methodist church advertising a "Winter Wonderland with real snow!" on the way to the university today.

Sigh.
0 likes   

f5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1550
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 3:29 pm
Location: Waco,tx

#72 Postby f5 » Thu Dec 14, 2006 10:38 am

Scott Patterson wrote:There's always a White Christmas here. Anyone whom wants to can come shovel all the white Christmas they want to off my driveway. Free of charge! :D


well DUH of course the Rocky Mountains are going to have a white christmas if not we be talking about global warming right now.
0 likes   

User avatar
wall_cloud
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 401
Age: 48
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2005 7:32 am
Location: Bartlett, TN
Contact:

#73 Postby wall_cloud » Fri Dec 15, 2006 6:46 am

Johnny wrote:Man, if I had a dollar for every time I heard that leading up to the Christmas snow of 2004 I'd be a rich man. Well, maybe not rich but I would of had enough money to by myself a dinner at Joe's Crab Shack! :D


you just never hear the model busts. Only the human busts
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#74 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Dec 15, 2006 12:15 pm

Even up here, there may not be a white Christmas...over 16 inches of snow in the first week of December has practically melted leaving only snowbanks...and more rain is expected this weekend...
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests