Texas Winter Weather Thread #3 - GFS showing cold christmas

#161 Postby **jasons2k** » Sun Dec 10, 2006 4:35 pm

At least for now, I am happy:

"TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS." - NWS HGX

#162 Postby **Portastorm** » Sun Dec 10, 2006 4:55 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:For what it's worth and I am surprised Portastorm or EWG didn't note this. JB is aggreeing the Arctic air returns to the west in 10 or so days. That would be good news for us Texas cold lovers, right?
yeah, he said it (arctic air) will be bottled up the next 7-days, but then after it may start spilling down into the west. Then after reaching the west it should eventually work eastward and reach the east coast sometime after Christmas. This is good news for Texas because it means a nice cold period may be arriving right around Christmas time for us.

I think aggiecutter hit the proverbial nail on the head in his earlier post. One of the keys is "how much cold air will be available in Canada?" The ensembles are showing a healthy below average anamoly over Texas around the 22nd but right now it is NOT at the degree of what we saw last week. Something to watch.

Yankeegirl · #163 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Sun Dec 10, 2006 6:15 pm

All I want for Christmas is COLD WEATHER! :lol:

JenBayles · #164 Postby **JenBayles** » Sun Dec 10, 2006 6:15 pm

Portastorm wrote:[I think aggiecutter hit the proverbial nail on the head in his earlier post. One of the keys is "how much cold air will be available in Canada?" The ensembles are showing a healthy below average anamoly over Texas around the 22nd but right now it is NOT at the degree of what we saw last week. Something to watch.

??!!

CajunMama · #165 Postby **CajunMama** » Sun Dec 10, 2006 6:29 pm

Nice "bear watch" there jen! :lol:

#166 Postby **Portastorm** » Sun Dec 10, 2006 8:14 pm

well done, JenBayles! :lol:

Yankeegirl · #167 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Sun Dec 10, 2006 8:23 pm

Hey, I remember that watch, I think I had one when I was a kid!!!

aggiecutter · #168 Postby **aggiecutter** » Mon Dec 11, 2006 2:52 pm

The noon Ensembles continue to show a trough over the central part of the country at or around Christmas week. How much cold air will be available at that time remains to be seen. One thing for sure, it will be very mild between now and then.

Noon Ensembles:
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 21112.html

Yankeegirl · #169 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Dec 11, 2006 3:10 pm

yuck....should have done my shopping last weekend.... :roll:

Extremeweatherguy · #170 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Dec 11, 2006 4:05 pm

If the 12Z GFS is right, then things may really start to get interesting around the 20th:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml
^^morning of the 20th. Low pressure brings rain, storms, ice and snow to much of TX. Cold air filters in on backside of the low.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml
^^morning of the 21st. Cold air continues to spill into the state.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml
^^morning of the 22nd. Modified cold air spreads eastward over the state bringing cold conditions into eastern TX.^^

Then on the 23rd and 24th things moderate a bit, but late on christmas eve it shows another strong front moving through...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _324.shtml
^^Front arrives on Christmas eve. Flurries over parts of the state???^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _336.shtml
^^Possible flurries near the gulf coast on Christmas morning???^^

JenBayles · #171 Postby **JenBayles** » Mon Dec 11, 2006 4:16 pm

You're killing me Extreme! Still on the lookout for the white stuff, huh? :lol:

Ah well, nice to think about anyway, and it's not altogether impossible, so I'll hope right along with you.

southerngale · #172 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Dec 11, 2006 4:17 pm

Me thinks you're dreaming, but hey, it's that time of year...I'm dreaming of a white Christmas as well. :cheesy:

#173 Postby **Tireman4** » Mon Dec 11, 2006 4:41 pm

Go White Christmas Go!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Or rather Arrive White Christmas Arrive!!!!!! LOL

double D · #174 Postby **double D** » Mon Dec 11, 2006 5:07 pm

I thought this was kind of interesting from the DFW NWS discussion and kind of goes along with what EWG was talking about.

BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS NEXT WEEK AS FORECAST MEAN
ENSEMBLES FAVOR UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...AND A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN
STATES. THIS FAVORS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS TEXAS
WITH LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS EXTENDING FURTHER DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A COOL...WET PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BECAUSE THIS IS A RADIAL DEPARTURE FROM
PREVIOUS ECMWF AND GFS RUNS...WE HAVE NOT BITTEN OFF ON SUCH A
DRAMATIC CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST...BUT HAVE BEGUN TO HEDGE TOWARD
IT. WE WILL REEVALUATE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW...THEN MAKE A
COMMITMENT.

Johnny · #175 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Dec 11, 2006 5:46 pm

Ahhh, that looks familiar EWG.

Dec. 9th, 2004

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=53777

Dec. 15th, 2004

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=54007

Dec. 19th, 2004
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=54217

Dec. 15th, 2004

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=54022

Dec. 17th, 2004

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=54134

We need to see some more posts like this soon!!!

Extremeweatherguy · #176 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Dec 11, 2006 6:01 pm

wow johnny, thanks for posting that. It goes to show that the GFS isn't always "on crack" in the longer term. I guess we will see what this year brings. Hopefully the GFS's trend toward a colder, wetter last 10 days of December continues! It would sure be nice to see some wintery weather around Christmas time (even if not right on Dec. 24/25).

#177 Postby **Tireman4** » Mon Dec 11, 2006 6:04 pm

And not just stay to the south of I10. That year my parents received 6 inches (Santa Fe) and I received a dusting (Humble) . Not fair.

weatherrabbit_tx · #178 Postby **weatherrabbit_tx** » Mon Dec 11, 2006 6:48 pm

it will all even out, question is when?

Johnny · #179 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Dec 11, 2006 8:21 pm

Here's Jeff's first forecast on Dec. 22, 2004.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=54470

And wxguy25's snow map on the same day.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=54465

Southerngale reports in with her first snow sighting on Christmas Eve 2004.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=54572

Jeff reports snow falling across Southeast, Texas on Christmas Eve.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=54588

Yankeegirl · #180 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Dec 11, 2006 10:20 pm

Long live the Christmas of 2004...It will live in the memories of everyone here in the Lone Star State.... :ggreen:

Texas Winter Weather Thread #3 - GFS showing cold christmas

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